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    Computer Rankings Hypothetical


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    26 replies to this topic

    #1 osunut2

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 07:42 AM

    Pardon my terrible formatting (I'm trying to fix it). I thought this might give us something entertaining to talk about.

     

    I decided to take the Ohio high school computer ranking system (OHSAA) and apply it to Regions 1 through 4 in 5A, in order to compare the results to our current setup. The ranking system is composed of two primary scoring components - points are awarded for 1) head-to-head wins, based on an opponent's classification (level 1 points), and 2) your opponents' quality of wins, based on their opponents' classification (level 2 points). If you want to see how these numbers are calculated, the details are in the link above. Note that I haven't normalized the results for teams that haven't had a bye yet, so Campbell County, Sevier County, and White County will have "slightly" inflated numbers. The top 16 teams would advance to the playoffs:

     

    Rank Team Region Record Points

    1 Farragut 3 7-1 17.7250

    2 McMinn Co 4 6-2 17.1000

    3 Campbell Co* 3 8-1 16.0611

    4 Mo West** 1 6-2 15.9250

    5 Oak Ridge 3 7-1 15.7125

    6 Ooltewah* 4 6-2 14.4375

    7 Rhea Co 4 6-2 12.9000

    8 Walker Valley 4 6-2 11.5875

    9 Knox West 2 4-4 11.0125

    10 Gibbs 2 5-3 10.8375

    11 Halls 2 5-3 9.9250

    12 Mo East 1 5-3 9.7375

    13 Cleveland 4 4-4 8.2125

    14 South Doyle 2 4-4 8.1875

    15 Heritage 2 4-4 7.7500

    16 Boone 1 3-5 6.9875

    17 Crockett 1 3-5 6.2875

    18 Sevier Co 1 3-6 5.4333

    19 Lenoir City 3 3-5 3.7125

    20 White Co 4 3-6 3.5444

    21 TN High* 1 2-6 3.1000

    22 Cocke Co 1 2-6 2.3125

    23 Soddy 4 1-7 1.9875

    24 Powell 2 1-7 0.6875

    25 Clinton 3 1-7 0.6875

    26 Karns 3 0-8 0.0000

     

    *The tricky part to this is that anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent (or a non-TSSAA sanctioned team, like Lancaster Christian), you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses (who will most likely be against other out-of-state teams) for the entire season. For this example, Tennessee High (Virginia HS), Campbell County (Bell County, KY), and Ooltewah (Erwin, NC) all defeated out-of-state opponents. Based on the enrollments at each of those schools, I classified Virginia as 3A (2-5 record currently), Bell County as 3A (2-6), and Erwin as 5A (4-4).

     

    **There's also the issue of Morristown West's forfeit win over Catholic. The Trojans get a ton of extra level 2 points because of Catholic's record. However, if TSSAA were to treat this game as a throw-away, it would essentially result as a bye in these rankings for Morristown West. As a result, Morristown West would slide down to #7, with a point total of 13.3333.


    Edited by osunut2, 19 October 2016 - 07:45 AM.

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    #2 osunut2

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 01:27 PM

    I'll also update the rankings on Monday, and again after week 11.


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    "Without winners, there wouldn't even be any god-d*mned civilization." -Woody Hayes

    #3 blazer1set

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 05:31 PM

    The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA.     Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer?


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    #4 steelcityroller

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 07:03 PM

    Pretty interesting.

     

    Would you mind doing this for every classification and providing a brief page explanation for each one? :)


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    #5 osunut2

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 08:19 PM

    The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA. Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer?

    It is definitely more complex, but it rewards teams for defeating quality opponents. It also presents a potential solution to the problem in Region 3, for example. Campbell Co, Oak Ridge, and Farragut are three very good teams, but where does Lenoir City fit in? In the TSSAA system, they'll likely clinch a playoff spot, but in the OHSAA system, there is no guarantee that each region qualifies 4 teams. Just depends on the strength of the other teams in the entire quad.
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    #6 osunut2

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    Posted 19 October 2016 - 08:20 PM

    Pretty interesting.

    Would you mind doing this for every classification and providing a brief page explanation for each one? :)

    Sure. After this week, I'll put something together for each class with the detailed point tallies.

    Edited by osunut2, 19 October 2016 - 08:21 PM.

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    "Without winners, there wouldn't even be any god-d*mned civilization." -Woody Hayes

    #7 osunut2

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    Posted 20 October 2016 - 09:01 AM

    I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing:

     

    Rank Team Region Record Points

    1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250

    2 Cane Ridge     6 8-0 19.73750

    3 Beech              6 6-2 16.41250

    4 Centennial       7 7-1 14.78598

    5 Gallatin            6 6-2 14.36553

    6 Mem Central*  8 7-1 14.21250

    7 Summit            5 6-2 14.12500

    8 Shelbyville       5 6-2 12.88750

    9 Brighton           8 5-3 11.22500

    10 Henry Co**    7 5-2 10.42857

    11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750

    12 Bolton            8 4-4 8.53750

    13 Southwind      8 4-4 8.02500

    14 Brentwood     7 4-4 7.86301

    15 Munford         8 5-3 7.58750

    16 Hillsboro        6 4-4 7.36250

    17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896

    18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250

    19 Rossview       7 4-4 6.63889

    20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250

    21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750

    22 Wooddale      8 2-6 5.77500

    23 Kirby              8 2-6 4.67500

    24 Franklin Co    5 3-5 3.55000

    25 Lincoln Co     5 3-5 3.38750

    26 LaVergne       5 2-6 2.97500

    27 Clarksville      7 2-6 2.37311

    28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750

    29 Dickson Co    7 1-7 0.68750

    30 Columbia       5 0-8 0.00000

    31 Glencliff         6 0-8 0.00000

    32 West Creek   7 0-8 0.00000

     

    *Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently).

     

    **Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total.

     

    Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points.

     

    Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season.

     

    It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless.

     

    It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played.


    Edited by osunut2, 20 October 2016 - 11:16 AM.

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    #8 GWAVE1

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    Posted 20 October 2016 - 11:21 AM

    I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing:

    Rank Team Region Record Points
    1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250
    2 Cane Ridge 6 8-0 19.73750
    3 Beech 6 6-2 16.41250
    4 Centennial 7 7-1 14.78598
    5 Gallatin 6 6-2 14.36553
    6 Mem Central* 8 7-1 14.21250
    7 Summit 5 6-2 14.12500
    8 Shelbyville 5 6-2 12.88750
    9 Brighton 8 5-3 11.22500
    10 Henry Co** 7 5-2 10.42857
    11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750
    12 Bolton 8 4-4 8.53750
    13 Southwind 8 4-4 8.02500
    14 Brentwood 7 4-4 7.86301
    15 Munford 8 5-3 7.58750
    16 Hillsboro 6 4-4 7.36250
    17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896
    18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250
    19 Rossview 7 4-4 6.63889
    20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250
    21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750
    22 Wooddale 8 2-6 5.77500
    23 Kirby 8 2-6 4.67500
    24 Franklin Co 5 3-5 3.55000
    25 Lincoln Co 5 3-5 3.38750
    26 LaVergne 5 2-6 2.97500
    27 Clarksville 7 2-6 2.37311
    28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750
    29 Dickson Co 7 1-7 0.68750
    30 Columbia 5 0-8 0.00000
    31 Glencliff 6 0-8 0.00000
    32 West Creek 7 0-8 0.00000

    *Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently).

    **Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total.

    Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points.

    Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season.

    It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless.

    It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played.

    Interesting
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    #9 Indynation17

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    Posted 24 October 2016 - 08:14 AM

    Indy is loaded and rounding into playoff form. All four starting receivers are holding D1 scholarship offers and have playmakers all over the field. Running back will be getting a lot of offers after this season. QB is making good decisions and placing the ball in tight windows. OL is probably the best Indy has had in a long time. Defense is fast and stingy. Special teams are very good between long kickoffs, field goals/extra points and punting (we don't really punt a lot). Team is healthy, rested and hungry for another state championship. 


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    #10 AdmiralDude

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    Posted 24 October 2016 - 08:45 AM

    How about updated standings for 5A as a whole and Regions 1-4?


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