Traditional State Picks and Analysis

[bonesaw]

I believe what his majesty is trying to say is that, although Beech tied Mt. Juliet at districts and MJ won on criteria, Beech was not a very good duals team due to injurys. Beech has some solid wrestlers that should go far at state and accumulate a lot of team points. Beech will finish higher as an individual team versus a duals team.

[seahawk8]

I'm not on here enough to know if what I'm seeing is the latest or a month old but on the pin-tn site this seems to be how they are ranking the kids.  This seems all jacked up to  me.  Am I looking at the wrong site, wrong date?

2/9/17 Update

Team Rankings:
1. Father Ryan
2. McCallie
3. Christian Brothers
4. Baylor
5. MBA
6. Brentwood Academy
7. BGA
8. MUS

106-

1. Clayton Pettway (Baylor)
2. Paul Killian (Ryan)
3. Eddie Suh (McCallie)
4. Gehrig Salvaggio (CBHS)
5. Maverick Rorie (Briarcrest)
6. Frank Perazinni (MBA)

113-

1. Christian Simpson (Ryan)
2. John Pettway (Baylor)
3. Alex Whitworth (McCallie)
4. Carlo Guinocor (MUS)
5. Adam Garfinkle (MBA)
6. Jackson Herring (CBHS)

120-

1. Gabriel Elkin (MBA)
2. Zach Ward (McCallie)
3. Luke Collins (Baylor)
4. Dalton Kilpatrick (St. Ben)
5. Connor Galvez (Ensworth)
6. Tyler Lubin (CBHS)

126-

1. Raymond Eason (Ryan)
2. Joseph Tarquine (MBA)
3. Zack Tieng (Knox Webb)
4. Haden Hardine (Baylor)
5. David Carnahan (DCA)
6. Ty Reed (BGA)

132-

1. Brock Herring (McCallie)
2. Michael Elkin (MBA)
3. Robert Griggs (CBHS)
4. Gerard Bullock (Ensworth)
5. Joey Vogelpohl (Ryan)
6. Logan Spell (Brentwood Ac)

138-

1. Austin Atchley (Baylor)
2. John Glover (MBA)
3. Victor Ortale (Ensworth)
4. Connor Rasberry (CBHS)
5. Matthew Doucette (St. George)
6. Jacob Roberts (McCallie)

145-

1. Trevor Brown (CBHS)
2. Alex Atchley (Baylor)
3. Bryce Whittman (MBA)
4. Thomas Sell (McCallie)
5. Conner Mitchell (BGA)
6. Brett Newman (Briarcrest)

152-

1. Eli King (Ryan)
2. Ethan Dendy (McCallie)
3. Jake Knaff (MUS)
4. Matthew Wigley (CBHS)
5. Furman Jones (Brentwood Ac)
6. Kolton Grimsley (BGA)

160-

1. Mason Reiniche (Baylor)
2. Perry Matthews (MBA)
3. Drew Nicholson (CBHS)
4. Russell Barry (McCallie)
5. Thomas Wells (MUS)
6. Houston Crouch (Ryan)

170-

1. Tommy Brackett (CBHS)
2. Riley Westlake (Baylor)
3. Hayden Rowland (McCallie)
4. Thomas Butler (Brentwood Ac)
5. Anthony Hagey (Ryan)
6. Clay Garstin (MBA)

182-

1. Khamari Whimper (Baylor)
2. Judah Duhm (McCallie)
3. Andrew Wesnoske (Ryan)
4. Ian Tiatia (Briarcrest)
5. Erik Richardson (MUS)
6. Dominic Fisher (MBA)

195-

1. George Hooker (Ryan)
2. Keegan Jones (CBHS)
3. Braden Murphy (Brentwood Ac)
4. Nathaniel Taylor (Ensworth)

220-

1. Greyson Walthall (CBHS)
2. Max Schott (Brentwood Ac)
3. Tyree Tolliver (Baylor)
4. Josiah Fohhoum (Briarcrest)
5. Eli Christenbury (MUS)
6. Wyeth Patton (MBA)

285-

1. River Henry (McCallie)
2. Airin Spell (Brentwood Ac)
3. Patrick Healy (CBHS)
4. Tymon Mitchell (FRA)
5. Alex Green (Briarcrest)

6. Ryan Jackson (Friendship Chr)

[KingGreene]

Exactly as Bonesaw said.... A team with 14 good wrestlers can beat a team with 6 studs and 8 duds. But those 14 good wrestlers may not be able to do anything at the state level while those 6 studs can all get state medals and their team ends up in the top 5 regardless of what the other 8 do.

 

Not saying that is the exact situation with Beech or MJ, but my point is that some teams will perform much better at an individual tournament than a dual.

 

Also, the Region tournament is not always the best measuring stick either when comparing two teams to how they'll do at State. One team may have a bunch of kids that can score points at the Region level but may go 0-2 at State because it's much tougher competition. That team may beat or stay close with the team with 6 studs in Region, but not be anywhere close at the end of the State tournament.

[tmarshall7]

I would struggle to call Mt. Juliet a darkhorse, since they have performed very well this year.  In state duals they took Tennessee High to the limit first round.  They don't get a lot of "airtime" but they can be a solid top 5 team and could place at least six.  I believe both MJ and Beech will be top 5. 

 

And given the opportunity, I'd take the 6 studs vs 14 average wrestlers every time.

[cobrakid8]

Tmarshall, depends on what you want to do with them, win state dual title no, I would take a few studs mixed with some really good wrestlers instead of 6 studs and the rest get me absolutely nothing but get stuck, much easier in a individual tourney though with 6 studs and rest duds because even if they get tough draws they can usually make it out while you aren't counting on the others to do anything anyways. Me I would rather have a tough dual team strong top to bottom but to each their own.