If you are a returning placer and win your region, you usually make it to the third round with ease. If you don’t, because a highly ranked stud from your region in a higher weight class drops and upsets you, then you may have a much tougher road to travel before you step upon the podium.
The region results will determine the state bracket. 1&4, 2&3, etc ...
I think pin Tn is a good resource.
But descending kids could/will put a wrench into the mix...