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osunut2

Computer Rankings Hypothetical

27 posts in this topic

Pardon my terrible formatting (I'm trying to fix it). I thought this might give us something entertaining to talk about.

 

I decided to take the Ohio high school computer ranking system (OHSAA) and apply it to Regions 1 through 4 in 5A, in order to compare the results to our current setup. The ranking system is composed of two primary scoring components - points are awarded for 1) head-to-head wins, based on an opponent's classification (level 1 points), and 2) your opponents' quality of wins, based on their opponents' classification (level 2 points). If you want to see how these numbers are calculated, the details are in the link above. Note that I haven't normalized the results for teams that haven't had a bye yet, so Campbell County, Sevier County, and White County will have "slightly" inflated numbers. The top 16 teams would advance to the playoffs:

 

Rank Team Region Record Points

1 Farragut 3 7-1 17.7250

2 McMinn Co 4 6-2 17.1000

3 Campbell Co* 3 8-1 16.0611

4 Mo West** 1 6-2 15.9250

5 Oak Ridge 3 7-1 15.7125

6 Ooltewah* 4 6-2 14.4375

7 Rhea Co 4 6-2 12.9000

8 Walker Valley 4 6-2 11.5875

9 Knox West 2 4-4 11.0125

10 Gibbs 2 5-3 10.8375

11 Halls 2 5-3 9.9250

12 Mo East 1 5-3 9.7375

13 Cleveland 4 4-4 8.2125

14 South Doyle 2 4-4 8.1875

15 Heritage 2 4-4 7.7500

16 Boone 1 3-5 6.9875

17 Crockett 1 3-5 6.2875

18 Sevier Co 1 3-6 5.4333

19 Lenoir City 3 3-5 3.7125

20 White Co 4 3-6 3.5444

21 TN High* 1 2-6 3.1000

22 Cocke Co 1 2-6 2.3125

23 Soddy 4 1-7 1.9875

24 Powell 2 1-7 0.6875

25 Clinton 3 1-7 0.6875

26 Karns 3 0-8 0.0000

 

*The tricky part to this is that anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent (or a non-TSSAA sanctioned team, like Lancaster Christian), you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses (who will most likely be against other out-of-state teams) for the entire season. For this example, Tennessee High (Virginia HS), Campbell County (Bell County, KY), and Ooltewah (Erwin, NC) all defeated out-of-state opponents. Based on the enrollments at each of those schools, I classified Virginia as 3A (2-5 record currently), Bell County as 3A (2-6), and Erwin as 5A (4-4).

 

**There's also the issue of Morristown West's forfeit win over Catholic. The Trojans get a ton of extra level 2 points because of Catholic's record. However, if TSSAA were to treat this game as a throw-away, it would essentially result as a bye in these rankings for Morristown West. As a result, Morristown West would slide down to #7, with a point total of 13.3333.

Edited by osunut2
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The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA.     Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer?

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The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA. Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer?

It is definitely more complex, but it rewards teams for defeating quality opponents. It also presents a potential solution to the problem in Region 3, for example. Campbell Co, Oak Ridge, and Farragut are three very good teams, but where does Lenoir City fit in? In the TSSAA system, they'll likely clinch a playoff spot, but in the OHSAA system, there is no guarantee that each region qualifies 4 teams. Just depends on the strength of the other teams in the entire quad.
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Pretty interesting.

 

Would you mind doing this for every classification and providing a brief page explanation for each one? :)

Sure. After this week, I'll put something together for each class with the detailed point tallies. Edited by osunut2
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I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing:

 

Rank Team Region Record Points

1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250

2 Cane Ridge     6 8-0 19.73750

3 Beech              6 6-2 16.41250

4 Centennial       7 7-1 14.78598

5 Gallatin            6 6-2 14.36553

6 Mem Central*  8 7-1 14.21250

7 Summit            5 6-2 14.12500

8 Shelbyville       5 6-2 12.88750

9 Brighton           8 5-3 11.22500

10 Henry Co**    7 5-2 10.42857

11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750

12 Bolton            8 4-4 8.53750

13 Southwind      8 4-4 8.02500

14 Brentwood     7 4-4 7.86301

15 Munford         8 5-3 7.58750

16 Hillsboro        6 4-4 7.36250

17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896

18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250

19 Rossview       7 4-4 6.63889

20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250

21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750

22 Wooddale      8 2-6 5.77500

23 Kirby              8 2-6 4.67500

24 Franklin Co    5 3-5 3.55000

25 Lincoln Co     5 3-5 3.38750

26 LaVergne       5 2-6 2.97500

27 Clarksville      7 2-6 2.37311

28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750

29 Dickson Co    7 1-7 0.68750

30 Columbia       5 0-8 0.00000

31 Glencliff         6 0-8 0.00000

32 West Creek   7 0-8 0.00000

 

*Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently).

 

**Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total.

 

Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points.

 

Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season.

 

It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless.

 

It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played.

Edited by osunut2
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I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing:

 

Rank Team Region Record Points

1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250

2 Cane Ridge 6 8-0 19.73750

3 Beech 6 6-2 16.41250

4 Centennial 7 7-1 14.78598

5 Gallatin 6 6-2 14.36553

6 Mem Central* 8 7-1 14.21250

7 Summit 5 6-2 14.12500

8 Shelbyville 5 6-2 12.88750

9 Brighton 8 5-3 11.22500

10 Henry Co** 7 5-2 10.42857

11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750

12 Bolton 8 4-4 8.53750

13 Southwind 8 4-4 8.02500

14 Brentwood 7 4-4 7.86301

15 Munford 8 5-3 7.58750

16 Hillsboro 6 4-4 7.36250

17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896

18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250

19 Rossview 7 4-4 6.63889

20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250

21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750

22 Wooddale 8 2-6 5.77500

23 Kirby 8 2-6 4.67500

24 Franklin Co 5 3-5 3.55000

25 Lincoln Co 5 3-5 3.38750

26 LaVergne 5 2-6 2.97500

27 Clarksville 7 2-6 2.37311

28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750

29 Dickson Co 7 1-7 0.68750

30 Columbia 5 0-8 0.00000

31 Glencliff 6 0-8 0.00000

32 West Creek 7 0-8 0.00000

 

*Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently).

 

**Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total.

 

Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points.

 

Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season.

 

It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless.

 

It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played.

Interesting
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Indy is loaded and rounding into playoff form. All four starting receivers are holding D1 scholarship offers and have playmakers all over the field. Running back will be getting a lot of offers after this season. QB is making good decisions and placing the ball in tight windows. OL is probably the best Indy has had in a long time. Defense is fast and stingy. Special teams are very good between long kickoffs, field goals/extra points and punting (we don't really punt a lot). Team is healthy, rested and hungry for another state championship. 

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