osunut2 Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 (edited) Pardon my terrible formatting (I'm trying to fix it). I thought this might give us something entertaining to talk about. I decided to take the Ohio high school computer ranking system (OHSAA) and apply it to Regions 1 through 4 in 5A, in order to compare the results to our current setup. The ranking system is composed of two primary scoring components - points are awarded for 1) head-to-head wins, based on an opponent's classification (level 1 points), and 2) your opponents' quality of wins, based on their opponents' classification (level 2 points). If you want to see how these numbers are calculated, the details are in the link above. Note that I haven't normalized the results for teams that haven't had a bye yet, so Campbell County, Sevier County, and White County will have "slightly" inflated numbers. The top 16 teams would advance to the playoffs: Rank Team Region Record Points 1 Farragut 3 7-1 17.7250 2 McMinn Co 4 6-2 17.1000 3 Campbell Co* 3 8-1 16.0611 4 Mo West** 1 6-2 15.9250 5 Oak Ridge 3 7-1 15.7125 6 Ooltewah* 4 6-2 14.4375 7 Rhea Co 4 6-2 12.9000 8 Walker Valley 4 6-2 11.5875 9 Knox West 2 4-4 11.0125 10 Gibbs 2 5-3 10.8375 11 Halls 2 5-3 9.9250 12 Mo East 1 5-3 9.7375 13 Cleveland 4 4-4 8.2125 14 South Doyle 2 4-4 8.1875 15 Heritage 2 4-4 7.7500 16 Boone 1 3-5 6.9875 17 Crockett 1 3-5 6.2875 18 Sevier Co 1 3-6 5.4333 19 Lenoir City 3 3-5 3.7125 20 White Co 4 3-6 3.5444 21 TN High* 1 2-6 3.1000 22 Cocke Co 1 2-6 2.3125 23 Soddy 4 1-7 1.9875 24 Powell 2 1-7 0.6875 25 Clinton 3 1-7 0.6875 26 Karns 3 0-8 0.0000 *The tricky part to this is that anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent (or a non-TSSAA sanctioned team, like Lancaster Christian), you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses (who will most likely be against other out-of-state teams) for the entire season. For this example, Tennessee High (Virginia HS), Campbell County (Bell County, KY), and Ooltewah (Erwin, NC) all defeated out-of-state opponents. Based on the enrollments at each of those schools, I classified Virginia as 3A (2-5 record currently), Bell County as 3A (2-6), and Erwin as 5A (4-4). **There's also the issue of Morristown West's forfeit win over Catholic. The Trojans get a ton of extra level 2 points because of Catholic's record. However, if TSSAA were to treat this game as a throw-away, it would essentially result as a bye in these rankings for Morristown West. As a result, Morristown West would slide down to #7, with a point total of 13.3333. Edited October 19, 2016 by osunut2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osunut2 Posted October 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 I'll also update the rankings on Monday, and again after week 11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazer1set Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA. Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steelcityroller Posted October 20, 2016 Report Share Posted October 20, 2016 Pretty interesting. Would you mind doing this for every classification and providing a brief page explanation for each one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osunut2 Posted October 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2016 The top 16 looks pretty close to who is going to get in under the current TSSAA system, although the actual rankings would be different under TSSAA. Sounds like Ohio's system is more complex but maybe fairer?It is definitely more complex, but it rewards teams for defeating quality opponents. It also presents a potential solution to the problem in Region 3, for example. Campbell Co, Oak Ridge, and Farragut are three very good teams, but where does Lenoir City fit in? In the TSSAA system, they'll likely clinch a playoff spot, but in the OHSAA system, there is no guarantee that each region qualifies 4 teams. Just depends on the strength of the other teams in the entire quad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osunut2 Posted October 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) Pretty interesting. Would you mind doing this for every classification and providing a brief page explanation for each one? Sure. After this week, I'll put something together for each class with the detailed point tallies. Edited October 20, 2016 by osunut2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osunut2 Posted October 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing: Rank Team Region Record Points 1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250 2 Cane Ridge 6 8-0 19.73750 3 Beech 6 6-2 16.41250 4 Centennial 7 7-1 14.78598 5 Gallatin 6 6-2 14.36553 6 Mem Central* 8 7-1 14.21250 7 Summit 5 6-2 14.12500 8 Shelbyville 5 6-2 12.88750 9 Brighton 8 5-3 11.22500 10 Henry Co** 7 5-2 10.42857 11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750 12 Bolton 8 4-4 8.53750 13 Southwind 8 4-4 8.02500 14 Brentwood 7 4-4 7.86301 15 Munford 8 5-3 7.58750 16 Hillsboro 6 4-4 7.36250 17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896 18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250 19 Rossview 7 4-4 6.63889 20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250 21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750 22 Wooddale 8 2-6 5.77500 23 Kirby 8 2-6 4.67500 24 Franklin Co 5 3-5 3.55000 25 Lincoln Co 5 3-5 3.38750 26 LaVergne 5 2-6 2.97500 27 Clarksville 7 2-6 2.37311 28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750 29 Dickson Co 7 1-7 0.68750 30 Columbia 5 0-8 0.00000 31 Glencliff 6 0-8 0.00000 32 West Creek 7 0-8 0.00000 *Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently). **Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total. Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points. Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season. It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless. It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played. Edited October 20, 2016 by osunut2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWAVE1 Posted October 20, 2016 Report Share Posted October 20, 2016 I went ahead and completed the remaining ranking for 5A (next week, I'll update 5A, plus I'll add the 6A rankings). All teams in Regions 5-8 have 2 games remaining, so the results have been normalized. Here's how Regions 5-8 work out, with the top 16 teams advancing: Rank Team Region Record Points 1 Independence 5 8-0 25.51250 2 Cane Ridge 6 8-0 19.73750 3 Beech 6 6-2 16.41250 4 Centennial 7 7-1 14.78598 5 Gallatin 6 6-2 14.36553 6 Mem Central* 8 7-1 14.21250 7 Summit 5 6-2 14.12500 8 Shelbyville 5 6-2 12.88750 9 Brighton 8 5-3 11.22500 10 Henry Co** 7 5-2 10.42857 11 Hendersonville 6 5-3 9.98750 12 Bolton 8 4-4 8.53750 13 Southwind 8 4-4 8.02500 14 Brentwood 7 4-4 7.86301 15 Munford 8 5-3 7.58750 16 Hillsboro 6 4-4 7.36250 17 Clarksville NE 7 4-4 7.20896 18 Stewarts Creek 5 4-4 6.66250 19 Rossview 7 4-4 6.63889 20 Station Camp 6 3-5 5.86250 21 Mem Overton 8 3-5 5.78750 22 Wooddale 8 2-6 5.77500 23 Kirby 8 2-6 4.67500 24 Franklin Co 5 3-5 3.55000 25 Lincoln Co 5 3-5 3.38750 26 LaVergne 5 2-6 2.97500 27 Clarksville 7 2-6 2.37311 28 Hunters Lane 6 1-7 0.68750 29 Dickson Co 7 1-7 0.68750 30 Columbia 5 0-8 0.00000 31 Glencliff 6 0-8 0.00000 32 West Creek 7 0-8 0.00000 *Memphis Central defeated Holly Springs, MS, an out-of-state opponent. Based on the enrollment at Holly Springs, I classified them as 2A (1-8 record currently). **Since Henry County and Houston didn't finish their game, it was officially cancelled by TSSAA. As a result, they play a 9-game schedule, which has been factored in to their point total. Since it was requested, here's a detailed explanation of how the scoring works. I'll use Independence as an example. Independence has 8 wins - 7 over 5A teams and 1 over a 6A team. They earn 5.5 level 1 points for each 5A win and 6 points for the 6A win. Those points are totaled (44.5) and divided by the number of games Independence has played (44.5 divided by 8), for a total of 5.5625 level 1 points. Calculating the level 2 point total is a bit more time consuming. To do this, we have to calculate the level 1 point totals for each team that Independence has defeated and combine them, which results in 199.5 points (based on the numbers, they've beaten more "quality" teams than anyone in 5A). This value is "normalized" (199.5 divided by 100, then multiplied by 10), for a total of 19.95 level 2 points. The final total, which is provided in the rankings above, is just the sum of level 1 and level 2 points (5.5625 + 19.95). Independence has the highest total in 5A, with 25.5125 points. Just a few things to note about this system. 6 points are awarded for defeating a 6A team, 5.5 points for 5A, 5 points for 4A, 4.5 points for 3A, 4 points for 2A, 3.5 points for 1A, and 3 points for non-TSSAA teams. I arbitrarily set D2-AA wins at 6 points and D2-A wins at 5 points each. As I mentioned earlier, anytime a team defeats an out-of-state opponent, you have to come up with an equivalent classification value for that opponent and track their wins/losses for the entire season. It should be clear that this system will reward teams that beat quality opponents. In the example case above, Independence's level 2 points heavily outweigh their level 1 points. This is typically the case when a team has defeated more quality opponents. While Powell gets level 1 points for defeating Karns, they get zero level 2 points because Karns is still winless. It's also important to pay attention to teams that do not play a 10-game schedule, because it effects the normalization of level 2 points (specifically the 100 divisor). This effects a team like Henry County, but it also has a minor effect on the ranking of everyone that Henry County has played. Interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indynation17 Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Indy is loaded and rounding into playoff form. All four starting receivers are holding D1 scholarship offers and have playmakers all over the field. Running back will be getting a lot of offers after this season. QB is making good decisions and placing the ball in tight windows. OL is probably the best Indy has had in a long time. Defense is fast and stingy. Special teams are very good between long kickoffs, field goals/extra points and punting (we don't really punt a lot). Team is healthy, rested and hungry for another state championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdmiralDude Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 How about updated standings for 5A as a whole and Regions 1-4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osunut2 Posted October 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2016 Just got home from Ohio last night, I'll post a 5A update this morning. I'll add 6A this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STARSNBARS Posted October 25, 2016 Report Share Posted October 25, 2016 Just got home from Ohio last night, I'll post a 5A update this morning. I'll add 6A this afternoon. osunut2 do ewe haiv two drive upp two Ohhioh and pick thes rankins upp direcklee frum tha sorce....???.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.