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LazIndex 1A Rankings & Predictions Semifinals

LazIndexTN

By LazIndexTN
in Class 1A & Class 2A

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LazIndexTN Challenger

LazIndexTN

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Weather conditions factored in? ... How comfortable their uniforms fit vs chaffing & limiting movement?.. If players been fighting/arguing with others? Sick? What they ate? Any of them smokers? Haha.. Lots of factors go into a game. But there was that crime solving TV show "Numbers" that reduced everything to mathematical equations. And that computer sports program called "Zeus" that has proven effective. So.. hmm.. Laz, do you ever go to Vegas? Or Tunica? :D

Don't like to gamble really, because anything can happen, even though I have sports gambling figured out pretty well. A little secret though:

 

Vegas sets their initial lines off of the averages of multiple computer ranking systems, Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly, Wolfe, including even Sonny Moore and the Lazindex. There are around 100 systems in the US that do college rankings and that is what Vegas uses. The lines move throughout the week based off of the bets that are placed to try and ensure that there are people betting on both sides of the line. This is because if Vegas can break even then they are still making millions off of the juice alone. Retrodictive rating systems are the most accurate way to predict sports outcomes and Vegas knows this and exploits this.

 

Because they use computer rankings to make the initial spread, the best computer rankings year in and year out can only predict against the spread with a 55-56% accuracy. Some years, very rarely, you will see a rating system close to 57%. That is why I don't bet, because I would need to bet on every game, every week of the season just to come out on top. I would make money, but I would have to bet on every single game because you don't know which games are going to hit on your side of the spread.

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