LSU has clear path to College Football Playoff, but Tennessee's path is easier | Opinion

Two-loss LSU can play its way in to the College Football Playoff by beating No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship.

That was one takeaway from Tuesday’s CFP rankings reveal that showed LSU at No. 7, two spots behind No. 5 Tennessee.

This is unsurprising. The committee values conference champions — that’s written in their selection criteria — and it values résumé and notable victories. The committee likes LSU’s wins against Alabama and Ole Miss. And it would love an LSU (7-2) upset of Georgia in a conference championship game at a neutral site.

Another takeaway (also unsurprising): Tennessee (8-1) needs help to make the playoff.

A reasonable playoff path exists for the Vols if they finish 11-1, but they’ll need assistance.

Tennessee lost control of its postseason destination when it lost 27-13 at Georgia on Saturday. Not reaching the conference championship game will be a hindrance for the Vols, but perhaps not an insurmountable one.

In fact, despite the Vols needing help, I like Tennessee’s chance to make the playoff better than LSU’s.

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Why? Tennessee doesn't have to beat Georgia to qualify for the playoff. LSU does. I wouldn't want my playoff hopes hinging on beating Georgia.

Still, it’s notable that LSU — the only team to become a two-loss national champion in the BCS era — has an avenue to become the first two-loss team to make the playoff.

The committee’s top eight: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, Oregon, LSU and Southern Cal.

How Tennessee gets in the playoff

Tennessee needs help. That's what happens when you suffer a regular-season loss that keeps you out of the conference championship.

Alabama, in 2017, is the only team other than independent Notre Dame to make the playoff despite not reaching its conference championship game. And the Crimson Tide required help.

Alabama was 11-1 and ranked No. 5 entering a conference championship weekend during which it sat at home. No. 4 Wisconsin lost in the Big Ten championship, and the Tide back-doored into the playoff.

TCU can become Tennessee's Wisconsin. The Volunteers' best path to the playoff is:

1. Georgia wins the SEC Championship.

2. TCU loses at least once.

3. Ohio State beats Michigan on Nov. 26.

If Nos. 1 and 2 happen, Tennessee is well-positioned. If Michigan wins the Big Ten Championship, the committee may be left to choose between 11-1 Tennessee or 11-1 Ohio State for the final spot.

What about Oregon? 

Oregon is ranked a spot behind Tennessee, but the Ducks almost certainly would leapfrog the Vols if they win the Pac-12 Championship. In fact, any one-loss Pac-12 champion may surpass Tennessee.

As such, the final bid may come down to TCU or Tennessee. 

You might be thinking, Oregon lost 49-3 to Georgia in the season opener, and Tennessee only lost 27-13 to Georgia. What gives?

Conference championships matter. Also, Oregon's schedule from here to the finish line is tougher than Tennessee’s, giving it further chance to bolster its résumé. The committee is not going to let margin of defeat to a common opponent be the determining factor for a playoff bid. 

“As a committee, I think we're looking at the game itself, and is it more one-sided? From our standpoint, it's not, ‘This one was X-number of points, and this one was X-number of points,'" CFP selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said.

And does the selection committee consider Oregon's loss to Georgia and Tennessee's loss to Georgia each to have been a one-sided game?

“Yes, I would say so," Corrigan said.

There you have it, clear as day.

If Oregon finishes 12-1, it will bypass Tennessee.

The Vols' best bet is to surpass TCU after a Frogs loss.

What if LSU wins SEC Championship?

If LSU upsets Georgia in Atlanta and becomes a two-loss conference champion, that wrecks the Vols.

Tennessee beat LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge, but the Tigers are just two spots behind the Vols. Add in a win against Georgia in the SEC Championship, and that should boost the Tigers.

If LSU beats Georgia, I don’t see the committee selecting two teams that did not win a conference championship — Georgia and Tennessee — while leaving the SEC champion at home, especially when the SEC champion would have just beaten No. 1 Georgia at a neutral site. Remember, the committee values conference champions.

Could the committee take LSU and Tennessee and leave out Georgia? Doubtful, considering Georgia beat Tennessee and Oregon.

Tennessee's best path to the playoff continues to involve Georgia winning out.

Would LSU and Georgia each make the playoff if LSU beat undefeated Georgia in the SEC Championship? 

Short answer: I think so.

Once again, I think it involves TCU. Do the Frogs lose? 

The Big Ten will claim a minimum of one playoff bid. A one-loss Pac-12 champion is likely to earn selection, too. 

So, for the SEC to claim two spots, TCU needs to lose and get out of the way.

In summary: Georgia is in great shape for a playoff spot; Tennessee is in decent shape, but it requires help; LSU has a prayer, which must include beating No. 1 Georgia.

Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

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