JOHN ADAMS

SEC football predictions: Tennessee Vols will rebound. What about Nick Saban, Alabama? | Adams

John Adams
Knoxville News Sentinel

Tennessee football's game against Missouri on Saturday will mark the final appearance at Neyland Stadium for many players, including star quarterback Hendon Hooker. In seasons past, this would be a time for farewells.

However, this November is altogether different for a program that has become accustomed to playing meaningless games in the last few weeks of a regular season. Oh, a bowl invitation might have been at stake. But it wouldn't have been a major bowl. And it might not have been significant enough to prevent UT's best players from opting out and focusing on their next career step.

Even in failure, you were reminded how different this season has been and how different the program has become under second-year coach Josh Heupel.

The No. 5 Vols (8-1, 4-1 SEC) lost their No. 1 ranking and suffered their first defeat last week against Georgia. Yet they're still in the running for the four-team College Football Playoff.

ADAMS:Tennessee football offense and No. 1 ranking vanish amid Georgia's defense

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In recent Tennessee seasons, one bad loss often led to even worse losses. For example, take UT's last trip to Athens, Georgia, in 2020 under former coach Jeremy Pruitt.

The Vols entered Sanford Stadium with a 2-0 record and an eight-game winning streak. They even led at the half before Georgia took them apart after halftime in a 44-21 victory.

A 23-point loss to Georgia was followed by a 27-point loss to Kentucky. And that was followed by a 31-point loss to Alabama. That sequence was typical of Tennessee football from 2008 through 2020.

Don't expect something similar under Heupel. Instead, expect the opposite in how the Vols rebound from the Georgia loss and how they reload after losing key players this season.

Heupel already has proved he can handle attrition. Ten starters transferred during and after the coaching transition from Pruitt to Heupel. Nonetheless, Heupel and his staff made do with what was left, won seven games last season and are now competing for a national championship.

Tennessee 45, Missouri 17: The Vols needed only the first half to score 45 points on Missouri last season. But the Tigers defense has improved significantly.

Their offense hasn’t.

Alabama 37, Ole Miss 34: Rebels fans might be more concerned about losing coach Lane Kiffin to Auburn than losing to the Tide.

I can’t imagine Kiffin finishing his career in Oxford, Mississippi. But I also can’t imagine him leaving for Auburn. He’s better off where he is. And he can get a better job than Auburn later if he keeps winning at Ole Miss.

Georgia 38, Mississippi State 17: This should be No. 1 Georgia’s toughest challenge down the stretch. But that won’t make for a suspenseful fourth quarter.

Mississippi State's offense went dormant in the second half of a 31-16 loss to LSU. And the Bulldogs barely budged Alabama’s defense in a 31-6 defeat.

Neither LSU’s defense nor Alabama’s is in the same class as Georgia’s.

LSU 27, Arkansas 24: A popular scenario, which I'm not buying: The Tigers could qualify for the CFP by winning the rest of their regular-season games and upending Georgia in the SEC championship game.

The Tigers are playing better. They beat Ole Miss and Alabama. But that doesn't mean they could beat Georgia.

I'm not even sure they can beat Arkansas.

Texas A&M 24, Auburn 20: When was the last time two SEC teams on five-game losing streaks met – and one of them wasn’t Vanderbilt?

One more question: What's wrong with the Aggies?

Brief answer: The flu bug took a bite out of them before the Gators did. They have started three different quarterbacks and seven different offensive lines in nine weeks. Despite their much-ballyhooed recruiting class, they’re playing a walk-on in their secondary. And they haven’t scored more than 28 points against an FBS opponent.

Kentucky 37, Vanderbilt 20: If you’re looking for combined SEC losing streaks in November, Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt usually has been the most likely possibility.

For example, take the 2001 season when both teams finished 2-9. Kentucky had lost six consecutive games and Vanderbilt had lost five consecutive SEC games when they met in Nashville.

The game didn’t live up to expectations, though. Vanderbilt did its part, but Kentucky proved way too competent in winning 56-20.

Don’t expect a close game this time, either, as the Commodores extend their SEC losing streak to 27 games.

Florida 34, South Carolina 23: Quarterback Anthony Richardson is playing better. But South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler isn't.

Rattler is a former five-star recruit who passed for more than 3,000 yards and 29 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman at Oklahoma in 2020.

At South Carolina, he has thrown eight TD passes and nine interceptions while struggling behind an incompetent offensive line. There’s a lesson for any transfer quarterback in those stats: Think long and hard before you decide on your transfer destination.

Record: 62-18 (.778), 38-35 (.521) against the spread.

John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns.