You can't go on prior matches all the time. We have all seen big defeats at State (D-1 and prior to the split) over the years. It's about peaking at the right time. Being healthy etc. When State was all under one tourney (private vs public) traditional tourney champs was close. Take out McCallie years they dominated it's about even.
1994-97 was won by now D-1 programs. Prior to the split back to back was Overton. With the strenth of Bradley, SD, Clev, Frank, Clks over the last 10 years it would have been fun to seen who finished 1st. The split was a mistake IMHO!