You forgot to mention a part of NCS that is always lurking to bite them in the butt - penalties. Seems like a personal foul or two is par for the course and if they come at inopportune times it will cost them a close game.
With that being said, I don't think any D is going to hold NCS to 14 points. The field drains well so wetness won't be a factor. NCS will sling it around and maybe this time, gain some on the ground as well.
NCS 24, USJ 13 (NCS has a pretty decent placekicker)