Austin East TN @ Huber Heights Wayne OH

[Brickcity]

Greetings from 2 states up north....

Thoughts on this match up.  

Huber Heights Wayne is typically a top 5 team in Ohio but they have been down of late and this year continues a down cycle for the program.   Wayne has struggled in both scrimmages so far but did come away with a 20-14 win over Upper Arlington (a team that Wayne had destroyed the previous 2 years).  Some history on Wayne, they play in the toughest division in Ohio and made it to the state final game 4 times, 1999, 2010, 2014, and 2015 losing all 4 times in close games.  In most years they play in what most would say in the hardest region to get out of in Ohio with such programs as St. Xavier, Colerain, Moeller, and Elder.  Wayne plays in the GWOC where they sport a 108-20 record since the formation of the league with 13 of the 20 losses being by 1 score or less.  Every team in their league finished above .500 last season.  

Like I stated earlier Wayne has been down of late and this season could be the worse since 1980.  They do return a 3 year starter at QB and as the season goes along they should improve.  They play a very tough schedule much tougher than that of AE as 8 of their 9 sanctioned opponents made the playoffs either last season or the year before that and two of their opponents are defending state champions.  Every game (with the exception of COF Academy as they are a club team) counts toward playoff points in the state of Ohio so this game will mean a lot to Wayne.  Last year Wayne lost for the first time to an out of state team as they got beat by nationally ranked Pine Richland PA, last year was also the first time Wayne had ever lost a home playoff game.  

That being said, Wayne should still win this game and in most years would win convincingly.  I watched AE vs Scott last year so I have some idea what is coming.  Wayne can match the speed of AE but if AE's new QB can scramble and get free that could cause Wayne fits.

How good are the DB's at AE?  They will be challenged....

While Huber Heights is a diehard football community Wayne has had success in basketball and has played in Tennessee a few time in a touney at Tennessee HS.  They did win that tourney one year, won a state title, and knocked off the #1 ranked team in the nation Findlay Prep NV.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14-1nK8Z38U

Those who are making the trip up north and are staying for awhile I highly recommend visiting the world famous Air Force Museum.  It has everything including the Memphis Belle and the best thing... Free Parking, Free admission!

 

Gimme some thoughts on this game....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

AE was a pretty good team last year but don’t think they are nearly as good this year. They are 3A school in TN with enrollment around 600 kids. What is the size of Huber??

[Brickcity]

Wayne is in D1 which is the largest class in Ohio.  Wayne though is one of the smaller schools in that division.  They have an enrollment number of just over 700 but that only includes 3 of the 4 grades that go to the school.  Wayne is a public closed enrollment school which means every kid on the team must reside in the Huber Heights school district.   AE would likely be placed in division 2 or possibly division 3, after AE plays Wayne, AE will actually be classified by Ohio if Wayne wins.  It will be very important for Wayne to have AE classified as high as possible as that will determine the amount of playoff (Harbin) points Wayne would earn for that win and future points Wayne would receive for every game AE wins the rest of the season (up to 10 games).

I would guess that Wayne is twice the size of AE.  Does AE have restriction on who can attend the school?  Does Tennessee have transfer issues or issues with schools recruiting kids?  Basically, Does AE get kids only within their district or can they bring kids in from outside?

 

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

3 hours ago, Brickcity said:

Wayne is in D1 which is the largest class in Ohio.  Wayne though is one of the smaller schools in that division.  They have an enrollment number of just over 700 but that only includes 3 of the 4 grades that go to the school.  Wayne is a public closed enrollment school which means every kid on the team must reside in the Huber Heights school district.   AE would likely be placed in division 2 or possibly division 3, after AE plays Wayne, AE will actually be classified by Ohio if Wayne wins.  It will be very important for Wayne to have AE classified as high as possible as that will determine the amount of playoff (Harbin) points Wayne would earn for that win and future points Wayne would receive for every game AE wins the rest of the season (up to 10 games).

I would guess that Wayne is twice the size of AE.  Does AE have restriction on who can attend the school?  Does Tennessee have transfer issues or issues with schools recruiting kids?  Basically, Does AE get kids only within their district or can they bring kids in from outside?

 

Knox Co schools is open zone. So kids from outside of the zone can attend. However there are several stipulations and I would say they get very few from outside the zone. There are also some private schools in Knoxville that can legally recruit. So that is an obstacle they face as well. 

[osunut2]

16 hours ago, Brickcity said:

Wayne is in D1 which is the largest class in Ohio.  Wayne though is one of the smaller schools in that division.  They have an enrollment number of just over 700 but that only includes 3 of the 4 grades that go to the school.  Wayne is a public closed enrollment school which means every kid on the team must reside in the Huber Heights school district.   AE would likely be placed in division 2 or possibly division 3, after AE plays Wayne, AE will actually be classified by Ohio if Wayne wins.  It will be very important for Wayne to have AE classified as high as possible as that will determine the amount of playoff (Harbin) points Wayne would earn for that win and future points Wayne would receive for every game AE wins the rest of the season (up to 10 games). 

I would guess that Wayne is twice the size of AE.  Does AE have restriction on who can attend the school?  Does Tennessee have transfer issues or issues with schools recruiting kids?  Basically, Does AE get kids only within their district or can they bring kids in from outside?

 

I'll add my two cents. I would be shocked if AE is classified D2 by OHSAA. With ~300 male students, they are pretty much a lock for D3 status in the OHSAA computer rankings. Also, Knox County isn't officially open zone, although there are rules/stipulations for a student to be able to transfer. Knox County has a number of private schools that can recruit, which is becoming a big challenge for the KCS public schools.

AE looked good against Gibbs this week, but I would be very surprised to see them beat a team like Wayne, even if they are expecting a down year.

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

16 minutes ago, osunut2 said:

I'll add my two cents. I would be shocked if AE is classified D2 by OHSAA. With ~300 male students, they are pretty much a lock for D3 status in the OHSAA computer rankings. Also, Knox County isn't officially open zone, although there are rules/stipulations for a student to be able to transfer. Knox County has a number of private schools that can recruit, which is becoming a big challenge for the KCS public schools.

AE looked good against Gibbs this week, but I would be very surprised to see them beat a team like Wayne, even if they are expecting a down year.

Based on the Knox Co. School Board policy “Transfers Within the System” under the “students” section of the online board policy they are open zone in the eyes of the tssaa. 

[osunut2]

28 minutes ago, BIGPURPLEMACHINE said:

Based on the Knox Co. School Board policy “Transfers Within the System” under the “students” section of the online board policy they are open zone in the eyes of the tssaa.  

So in the eyes of TSSAA, even though KCS doesn't permit open enrollment or have open zones, having an official transfer policy means that they are considered "open zone"?

Edited August 20, 2018 by osunut2

[Brickcity]

1 hour ago, osunut2 said:

I'll add my two cents. I would be shocked if AE is classified D2 by OHSAA. With ~300 male students, they are pretty much a lock for D3 status in the OHSAA computer rankings. Also, Knox County isn't officially open zone, although there are rules/stipulations for a student to be able to transfer. Knox County has a number of private schools that can recruit, which is becoming a big challenge for the KCS public schools.

AE looked good against Gibbs this week, but I would be very surprised to see them beat a team like Wayne, even if they are expecting a down year.

300 would put them in D3, I was not sure if the 600 enrollment number was all students or just male that is why I mentioned D2.  Since Wayne's L1 divisor will be .9 this season they will generate 0.611 actual level 1 points from AE with a win.  If AE goes 7-3 Wayne would accumulate 4.89 total points from this team.   It took 21.45 points to make the playoffs last season in Wayne's region.  Wayne is projected to finish 6-4 this season by the experts but I can see anywhere between 2-8 and 8-2.  Wayne has the 5th toughest schedule in Ohio and AE is listed as their weakest opponent this season.  

Wayne's record over the years:

2017 7-4 lost first ever home playoff game in 1st round

2016 12-1 lost in regional final on last second FG (Wayne had 6 turnovers in that game)

2015 14-1 lost in state final to St. Edward, Wayne was leading with under 2 minutes to go

2014 13-2 lost in state final to St. Edward 31-21

2013 11-2 lost in regional final

 

 

 

[osunut2]

17 minutes ago, Brickcity said:

300 would put them in D3, I was not sure if the 600 enrollment number was all students or just male that is why I mentioned D2.  Since Wayne's L1 divisor will be .9 this season they will generate 0.611 actual level 1 points from AE with a win.  If AE goes 7-3 Wayne would accumulate 4.89 total points from this team.   It took 21.45 points to make the playoffs last season in Wayne's region.  Wayne is projected to finish 6-4 this season by the experts but I can see anywhere between 2-8 and 8-2.  Wayne has the 5th toughest schedule in Ohio and AE is listed as their weakest opponent this season.   

Wayne's record over the years:

2017 7-4 lost first ever home playoff game in 1st round

2016 12-1 lost in regional final on last second FG (Wayne had 6 turnovers in that game)

2015 14-1 lost in state final to St. Edward, Wayne was leading with under 2 minutes to go

2014 13-2 lost in state final to St. Edward 31-21

2013 11-2 lost in regional final

 

 

 

Wayne has had one heck of a run the past handful of years. One of my co-workers played for Colerain in the early-mid 2000s, and most of my extended family played at Dublin Scioto and Worthington Kilbourne during the same time frame (when both schools were D1).

Edited August 20, 2018 by osunut2

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

6 hours ago, osunut2 said:

So in the eyes of TSSAA, even though KCS doesn't permit open enrollment or have open zones, having an official transfer policy means that they are considered "open zone"?

Yes. If there are loop holes where students who are not in your zone can attend your school regardless of reason you are an “open zone” system. 

[osunut2]

36 minutes ago, BIGPURPLEMACHINE said:

Yes. If there are loop holes where students who are not in your zone can attend your school regardless of reason you are an “open zone” system.  

So basically every single public school system in the state of Tennessee would be considered "open zone," especially during the No Child Left Behind years. 

I'm not disagreeing, I just think that's a strange way to define "open zone."

Edited August 20, 2018 by osunut2

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

4 hours ago, osunut2 said:

So basically every single public school system in the state of Tennessee would be considered "open zone," especially during the No Child Left Behind years. 

I'm not disagreeing, I just think that's a strange way to define "open zone."

I agree but it’s true. The vast majority of public are open zone. I always find it funny that people say open zone should have their own class. If that happened there would be almost no one left.