Central at Germantown

[Respect901fball]

12 hours ago, kwc said:

How many points do you think Central scores?

7.....

[TrenchDawg]

Think Germantown wins this one by at least 14. 

[kwc]

3 hours ago, Respect901fball said:

7.....

Alright. I can see that as well. With G-Town having at least a 3 TD MOV as you've indicated, then you are looking at a score of 28 - 7, Germantown. That puts your over/under at 35. 

[kwc]

Let's look at stats on both teams according to the database at the Shelby Metro Sports Blog Website

Offensively:

Germantown is 5th in Shelby County in scoring per game averaging 42.4 pts/gm through 8 games, Central is 20th averaging 30.1 pts/gm through 7 games. Both teams have stromg running games. Central is 8th in Shelby County through seven averaging 252.1 ypg. G-town is 17th through 8 averaging 196.1 ypg. G-town is also good at passing the ball. They are 8th averaging 163 ypg. Central's passing game isn't listed amoung the top 25 in Shelby County. Total yardage/game has G-town listed 7th averaging 359.1 ypg. Central is 16th at 319.1 ypg.

Defensively: 

Germantown is 3rd in pont scoring on allowing 9.7 pts/gm. Central is pretty stingy themselves listed 6th overall only allowing 11.8 pts/gm.  Central is 3rd in rushing 'D' only allowing 59.6 yds/gm. G-town is listed 5th only allowing 68.6 yds/gm. G-town is 3rd in passing 'D' only allowing 52.6 yds/gm. Central is 13th only giving up 65.6 yds/gm.  In total defense, G-town is listed 3rd only giving up on average 121.2 yds/gm. Central is right behind them listed 4th only giving up 125.1 yds/gm.

So, we are looking at a G-town 'O' that averages 42.4 pts/gm going against a Central 'D' only allowing 11.8 pts/gm. Vice-versa, we have a Central 'O' that averages 30.1 pts/gm going against a G-town 'D' that only allows 9.7 pts/gm.

If both offenses score as per their average, then G-town wins 42 -30 making the over under 72.

If both defenses hold their opponents to their average then G-town wins 12- 10 making the over under 22.

With both of these offenses, I think an over/under of 22 is too low. Nevertheless, with both defenses being as stingy as they are, I think an over/under of 72 is too high.

Hmmm .... 72 - 22 = 50. Furthermore ... G-town scores 30ish, and Central scores 20ish. let's say Central scores 3 TDs and misses a PAT for 20 points. G-town scores 4 TDs and a FG for 31 points.

That's my over/under 51 points.

Edited October 19, 2018 by kwc

[Respect901fball]

28 to 7 Germantown final

[Respect901fball]

Central  TD with 40 seconds remaining 

 

[kwc]

1 hour ago, Respect901fball said:

28 to 7 Germantown final

There's your 3 TD MOV.

You called it, AND they only scored 1 TD, just like you predicted.

[Haven04]

15 minutes ago, kwc said:

There's your 3 TD MOV.

You called it, AND they only scored 1 TD, just like you predicted.

How did we look tonight? I wasn’t able to make it up there?

[kwc]

1 hour ago, Havengrad04 said:

How did we look tonight? I wasn’t able to make it up there?

Oooo wee.

There are a lot of descriptive words coming to mind right now.

Undiciplined is one. But that isn't quite accurate. Let me put it like this. We had 200 yards of penalties tonight. I'm not exaggerating. Yet, we still won by 17. 

It was a strange game with some strange officiating. We had 200 yards of penalties and WS probably had 20, if that. You would have thought the game was being played at the Fairgrounds.

Then, throw in the fact that 14 of White Station's 24 points came off of turnovers. One a pick 6 and the other was a scoop and score. They actually scored 1 TD and 1 FG against our D.

This felt like a Trap Game with horrific officiating. 

However, there were plenty of bright spots. One ... They sat Bryson the whole game. He looked like he could go, but they sat him. Gotta love the depth we have. Two, they played #12 late in the game. He threw a beautiful TD pass to #14. So, he's back as well. Three, #6 is back on the team playing corner. Josh Gray. He was wonderful to watch. We finally have both corners in place ... FINALLY. 

So .... It was an experience.

We can't have those penalties next week, for sure.

Edited October 20, 2018 by kwc

[Haven04]

13 hours ago, kwc said:

Oooo wee.

There are a lot of descriptive words coming to mind right now.

Undiciplined is one. But that isn't quite accurate. Let me put it like this. We had 200 yards of penalties tonight. I'm not exaggerating. Yet, we still won by 17. 

It was a strange game with some strange officiating. We had 200 yards of penalties and WS probably had 20, if that. You would have thought the game was being played at the Fairgrounds.

Then, throw in the fact that 14 of White Station's 24 points came off of turnovers. One a pick 6 and the other was a scoop and score. They actually scored 1 TD and 1 FG against our D.

This felt like a Trap Game with horrific officiating. 

However, there were plenty of bright spots. One ... They sat Bryson the whole game. He looked like he could go, but they sat him. Gotta love the depth we have. Two, they played #12 late in the game. He threw a beautiful TD pass to #14. So, he's back as well. Three, #6 is back on the team playing corner. Josh Gray. He was wonderful to watch. We finally have both corners in place ... FINALLY. 

So .... It was an experience.

We can't have those penalties next week, for sure.

Intriguing... I’m glad Bryson is rested and hopefully healthy for this playoff run. You’re absolutely right about penalties; especially playing at GTown.