State Rankings

[EastTNfan17]

First off, does anyone have Info on how the site ones their rankings? Second, what rankings do we think are the most Incorrect?

The single A rankings seems pretty out of whack.

[TheBaseballGuy1985]

51 minutes ago, EastTNfan17 said:

First off, does anyone have Info on how the site ones their rankings? Second, what rankings do we think are the most Incorrect?

The single A rankings seems pretty out of whack.

I would also like to know how the rankings work.. for example, Hampton is ranked 2nd in the state and according to my math, they just finished 3rd in their own conference. North Greene and UH are ranked lower than them. It’s confusing to me. 

[CWalley26]

2 hours ago, TheBaseballGuy1985 said:

I would also like to know how the rankings work.. for example, Hampton is ranked 2nd in the state and according to my math, they just finished 3rd in their own conference. North Greene and UH are ranked lower than them. It’s confusing to me. 

While I don't see where Hampton is ranked 2nd I do see that they are 7th in A while UH is 9th and beat them soundly in both matchups, NG comes in at 12th and split the season series with both Hampton and UH.  Hampton's schedule appears to be one designed to rack up W's as they have played most of the year against weak single A opponents while UH has spent the season playing AAA and AAAA teams (not all of them juggernauts mind you but larger competition none the less) and NG played about half their games vs AA comp.  The C.T. rankings are based off of your strength of schedule (opponents winning %, playing a higher classification doesn't provide any boost in schedule strength) and your success rate so with this formula if you beat a 10-10 single A school and someone else beats a 10-10 AAAA school it would factor the same. It appears C.T. has UH with a strength of schedule ranking of 11th toughest in A ball, NG at 19th and Hampton at 46th. One can only assume that if UH's schedule was that much harder than Hampton's and beat them H2H in the two matchups that you would most likely find yourself ranked higher. All that said I would guess that a rep from C.T. would tell you that its not an exact science and they do the best they can. I think it just proves that you really can't put a lot into rankings at any point in the season, there appears to be no reward (from a poll perspective) for playing tough opponents vs a slew of easy W's. When its all said and done the up and coming tournaments will provide us with the only rankings that ultimately matter.

[901Hoops850]

I know nothing about lower classes, but if they are playing cupcake schedules to rack of wins, that is not sustainable. A team that plays quality teams in larger classifications, win or loss, should not be penalized if they lose. I don't understand the formula that Coach T uses, but it sometimes does not pass the eyeball test. 

Christian Brothers is a good team, but I don't know if they are a top 3 team in II-AA. Perhaps DII-AA is weak this year?

I think there are only about 4 teams that can win AAAA. AAA should be pretty good as well. I suspect the DIIA will be good.

[JRB]

17 hours ago, 901Hoops850 said:

I know nothing about lower classes, but if they are playing cupcake schedules to rack of wins, that is not sustainable. A team that plays quality teams in larger classifications, win or loss, should not be penalized if they lose. I don't understand the formula that Coach T uses, but it sometimes does not pass the eyeball test. 

Christian Brothers is a good team, but I don't know if they are a top 3 team in II-AA. Perhaps DII-AA is weak this year?

I think there are only about 4 teams that can win AAAA. AAA should be pretty good as well. I suspect the DIIA will be good.

In middle TN, DII-AA is way down this year - maybe the weakest I have seen, top to bottom, in 7 years.

[CWalley26]

17 hours ago, 901Hoops850 said:

I know nothing about lower classes, but if they are playing cupcake schedules to rack of wins, that is not sustainable. A team that plays quality teams in larger classifications, win or loss, should not be penalized if they lose. I don't understand the formula that Coach T uses, but it sometimes does not pass the eyeball test. 

Christian Brothers is a good team, but I don't know if they are a top 3 team in II-AA. Perhaps DII-AA is weak this year?

I think there are only about 4 teams that can win AAAA. AAA should be pretty good as well. I suspect the DIIA will be good.

I dove in and went all baseball nerd today and figured out (the rather simple) formula being used to generate the rankings. All that's factored into it is your opponents cumulative winning percentage plus your winning percentage. That number gives you the total which drives your ranking. Many components are not factored in (understandably). If you play out of state competition it doesn't affect your strength rating (for the most part), an example of that would be UH played 4 out of state teams that have a combined record of 50-39 and that's not factored in while Hampton played 7 out of state teams plus 3 games vs the home school team, those teams have a combined record of 40-99 but only register as 1-1 on the site, North Greene played just one game that doesn't factor (vs the home school). As previously mentioned there is also no reward for a small school to play larger classifications (from a poll perspective) so in the case of UH (14 of their 28 games vs AAA and AAAA) and NG (15 of their 24 games were vs AA and AAA) and Hampton (5 of their 30 vs AA and AAA) they each gain no "bonus" points for playing up when it comes to the strength factor and looking at it from a large school perspective there would be no penalty for playing "down".  Another factor to take a look at would be if you have a game on the schedule that was never played and it still shows in the C.T. schedule online, that game will factor into your strength, example being UH has a game that was cancelled vs GP that still shows on the schedule, GP's 3-14 record is being negatively factored into UH's strength. Having said all of this the only thing it really proves is I spent way too much time looking into this. I love this site, always have, and I appreciate the fact that its here - its a great source of info that otherwise would be only avail with M.P. and we all know that site is extremely hit or miss on what you can get from it.

[901Hoops850]

I coach girls basketball and also help with baseball, I love it. There are always going to be flaws, but i prefer it over unapproved website. Most polls are subjective. CT's rankings are objective, and thats fine.  It is a conversation piece. 

Doesn't the state baseball tournament come down to pitching? Does a team have more than one capable pitcher? Can you steal a game with a #2 or #3 starter?

I spend way too much time inputting scores and adding games to schedules, but i think if there are enough people like us, it only makes the site better. I hold the Memphis area down with scores, etc. If there is someone doing that in areas across the state, this site only gets better and better!

[MSUBac2001]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:01 AM, EastTNfan17 said:

First off, does anyone have Info on how the site ones their rankings? Second, what rankings do we think are the most Incorrect?

The single A rankings seems pretty out of whack.

Well the order may be a little different, but both CoachT and the TBCA agree on 9 out of 10 teams in single A. The 2 teams that don’t match are at the bottom of the polls . It will be interesting to see how many of these 11 make the state tournament. It would be impressive if 1/2 of these schools make it.

Eaglesville: TBCA 1, CoachT 1

Coalfield: TBCA 2, CoachT: 5

Gordonsville: TBCA 3, CoachT: 7

McKenzie: TBCA 4, CoachT 2

Hampton: TBCA 5, CoachT 6

Sale Creek: TBCA 6, CoachT 3

Peabody: TBCA 7, CoachT 9

Dresden: TBCA 8, CoachT 4

East Robertson: TBCA 9, CoachT 10

Greenback: TBCA 10, CoachT NR

University High: TBCA NR, CoachT 8

 

 

 

[BreadTruck28]

On 5/6/2022 at 9:43 AM, JRB said:

In middle TN, DII-AA is way down this year - maybe the weakest I have seen, top to bottom, in 7 years.

Hey JRB, were you at the game today? Would have liked to have said hi. 

[EastTNfan17]

On 5/7/2022 at 1:14 PM, MSUBac2001 said:

Well the order may be a little different, but both CoachT and the TBCA agree on 9 out of 10 teams in single A. The 2 teams that don’t match are at the bottom of the polls . It will be interesting to see how many of these 11 make the state tournament. It would be impressive if 1/2 of these schools make it.

Eaglesville: TBCA 1, CoachT 1

Coalfield: TBCA 2, CoachT: 5

Gordonsville: TBCA 3, CoachT: 7

McKenzie: TBCA 4, CoachT 2

Hampton: TBCA 5, CoachT 6

Sale Creek: TBCA 6, CoachT 3

Peabody: TBCA 7, CoachT 9

Dresden: TBCA 8, CoachT 4

East Robertson: TBCA 9, CoachT 10

Greenback: TBCA 10, CoachT NR

University High: TBCA NR, CoachT 8

 

 

 

Point being, it’s seems as though the only thing that matters in the CT rankings is pure win loss record. Which obviously you have to win to be a good team but it can also be very misleading. It’s interesting to take the time to look at actual schedules.

[901Hoops850]

I'd bet that TBCA bases their poll off of CT.

[JRB]

On 5/7/2022 at 7:19 PM, BreadTruck28 said:

Hey JRB, were you at the game today? Would have liked to have said hi. 

Indeed I was at both games, LA vs Pope and CPA vs MBA.  I usually stand behind the plate however was quite crowded on Sunday.  Did you like my shield behind the plate?  Yes, would have been good to meet.  I think if Pope survives McCallie we get CPA in the quarters- at your place.