Dead-o-Winter 2004 Region 4-5A Picks

[TDCman]

Just for fun, I did a little analysis of the region's rosters and tried to come up with an early (very early) look at what the region might look like next year. Of course, as we all know, lots of things can happen between January and September. The factors I looked at when evaluating the rosters were:

 

# of players returning from varsity roster (max points 44)

# of seniors on next year's varsity (max points 22)

# of returning players that received any type post-season recognition (points = actual #)

A rather subjective ranking of the teams size (listed heights & weights) (max points 10)

A rather subjective ranking of the teams speed (based on my memory) (max points 10)

A ranking of the teams intangibles (coaching, tradition, etc...) (max points 10)

 

And those rankings are:

 

Rank School Points

1. Riverdale 90+

2. Smyrna 80+

3. Blackman 70+

4. Lebanon 70+

5. Lavergne 70+

6. Wilson Central 60+

7. Siegel 60+

8. Oakland 50+

 

A couple things that jumped out at me as I was looking at the rosters.

~ Riverdale should go in as a strong favorite.

~ Lots of great skill people in the region this fall

~ Smyrna should be good, very good. Probably better than last year.

~ Blackman should rebound this year.

~ Siegel is a team to watch

~ Can't believe I would even put this out here showing Oakland in last place but at least for January I don't want to start fudging the numbers. A deeper look at Oakland is another post for another day.

 

All of this is based on some pretty imperfect information. I gathered rosters as the year went along but, Oakland's roster didn't list Heights&weights, Lavergne's roster only had part of the information, etc.., etc... Hopefully, when spring gets here we'll get a better idea. Lastly, we all know kids grow a lot from one football season to the next.

 

At any rate, something to post during the slow period.

[TDCman]

As a side note, since I had their roster and had seen them play twice, I did Lincoln County as well. They scored a 73 on my not too scientific eval. They will be pretty good again this fall.

[Guest Oakland]

i know people think i am crazy, but i remain convinced that oakland will have a good season next year, they have some very good talent coming up that can be starts right away. plus they have 3 transfers comin in(and wouldnt u like to know )

[TDCman]

A couple good transfers can always make a big difference. Do you have any details?

 

I also think that Oakland will be better than the numbers say. That is where the intangibles come in to play. It will be a very important off-season for the Patriots.

[Guest Oakland]

pm me tdc and i will give ya some info on these transfers

[TDCman]

Got your PM, thanks.

[addictedtosports.com]

Although Oakland will not be at the bottom of that list I don't see them as a possible threat for the region championship. A middle of the road team at best in that district.

[TDCman]

Hey Oakland2001,

 

Now that classes have resumed can you confirm that any of the transfers are on board. I also understand from another post that Childs from Smyrna has begun classes at Maryville. That is a significant loss for the Bulldogs.

 

Anybody else have any transfer news, in or out?

 

Thanks....

[Guest Oakland]

i have been able to confirm of 1 transfer, but thats about it for right now, but i should have some more info within the nest 4-5 days.

[82cat]

Smyrna will be a differnet team for sure next year. They will go back to what coach Shad likes best and that is the veer with increased emphasis on the QB running the ball more with Orona(#7) at QB. Anyone that saw him play lasty year knows he is very elusive with great speed.Smyrna returns a lot of starters and lots of players with considerable playing time and also a talented freshman group.

 

Early outlook is for a solid team with the emphasis on Marsalous Johnson who may be one of the most underated players in the state.

 

Excellent receiving corps with Michael Hinson returning after sitting out with a knee injury in 2004. Yes Orona can throw the ball------but experience is lacking so he want be asked to do much early

 

A big key will be staying healthy because of depth at key positions especially Marsalous.

 

The defense should be very good in 2004.

 

Everyone knows it is Riverdale's to lose they are loaded and should not even have a close game with their returning talent

The good news for Smyrna is no one expects them to be good after Wolke is gone

 

Team chemistry will be better this year and the wars they were in last year will help.

 

THE BAD NEWS

They play the exact killer schedule next year just flipped.

Away at Brentwood and Gallatin

inexperienced QB

lost 3 O lineman

need to replace shanon 3 yr starter and JT 3 yr starter

wolke made defense play the pass which helped the run

 

235 days to kickoff!

 

What does everyone else see for their team in 2004 both good and---------------------be honest include the bad also we will all become homers closer to the season.

[TDCman]

Good post 82Cat. Hopefully, some guys from the other schools will be on here to give some insight into their school's prospects.

 

Riverdale returns 17 starters and the punter. They lost the fullback, right guard, right tackle, middle LB, one OLB, and the place kicker. They don't have a lot of holes to fill but they are some big holes. They also lost some key backups.

 

My guess is that there will be some more changes to the team with some players changing positions as some younger, bigger guys mature and get ready to contribute. Riverdale was a pretty small team last year. I expect that they will be more "full size" this fall.

 

It will be a much different off-season than last year when the whole team had to be replaced.

 

Riverdale typically has a very late spring with the spring game in mid-May. We should have a good idea of their prospects by then.

[82cat]

I know Riverdale is used to being the hunted and handles it well but this season they should be the overwhelming favorite to win it all and even Rankin said as much last year.

 

I hear from Oakland folks the same thing I heard from Blackman folks last year that this will be a rebuilding year. They are optimistic as always but in reality think it will definetly be tough both schedule wise and with a young team.

 

The only player I know coming back for them is the young QB he really impressed me last year against Smyrna.

 

WIll Blackman rebound after for them a substandard 2003? Who comes back other than Mims and Locke? Will Dawson be the QB?

 

And who knows Lebanon may slip in and steal the whole thing--------------------------just kidding couldn't help but throw in a cheap shot and I promise not to mention it again in 2004!