Which college football programs NEED to win a national title soon?
A generous Michigan fan named Eric would like other fans to feel as good as he does right now. The Wolverines finally broke through and won their first national title since 1997, and the resetting of that clock has made Michigan fandom pretty sweet.
So for this week’s Dear Andy episode of Andy Staples On3, Eric posed this question:
Now that (my) Wolverines have won a national title, which historic programs (and their fans) need a national title most?
I’m thinking the factors should include but not be limited to:
1) Length of drought
2) Somewhat sustained success (so that a national title is within the realm of possibility)
3) Rabid fanbaseMy teams in mind are USC, Florida, Tennessee, Penn State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, and Texas… could even throw Ohio State, Florida State and Auburn in there.
Maybe top-tier Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma… second-tier FSU/Tennessee/Florida/Auburn/Penn State? I don’t think USC or Miami cares enough, and Nebraska hasn’t been good enough?
This is a fascinating exercise. Because I’m not sure certain programs and their fans need a national title as much as others.
I’ll push back on Eric on a few of these. Most Nebraska fans would be thrilled with a merely competitive team. Sure, they’d love to be winning national titles again. But that group as a whole seems fairly realistic about the program’s place in the overall landscape. Being a pretty good Big Ten program would be enough for now.
Meanwhile, USC dominated the early part of this century. The Clay Helton years were frustrating. While the Trojans don’t look poised to storm into the Big Ten and dominate right away, I don’t get the sense that they’re in national title-or-bust mode.
Florida and Miami have somewhat recent national titles, but more importantly they’ve dealt with remarkable inconsistency for the past 10 or so years. Both of those fanbases would love consistent competitiveness to start. Then they can start worrying about national titles.
Florida State, meanwhile, feels like it’s in a good place now that Mike Norvell has pulled the Seminoles out of a deep hole. The memories of the 2013 title are still fresh enough that Florida State fans probably don’t crave the validation of a national title. They’d love to have one — and their program looks to be competitive enough to compete for one — but they don’t need a title.
These programs do…
Ohio State
Last national title: 2014
Ohio State is the most recent national champion on this list, and the Buckeyes also have come the closest to winning the most recently. Had a field goal attempt gone in at the end of the 2022 Peach Bowl, the Buckeyes probably would have a very recent title. They also played for the title after the 2020 season, and they made the College Football Playoff in 2016 and 2019.
So why is Ohio State even on this list? Because I can’t recall a recent team’s season that felt as national title-or-bust as this Ohio State season. Perhaps it was 2009 Florida. The Gators went 12-1 that season, but the players and coaches involved generally remember that year as a miserable slog beset by unrealistic expectations that came home to roost in an SEC title game loss to eventual national champ Alabama. Or maybe the answer is 2015 Ohio State, a team that might have been more talented than the 2014 national title squad. That team lost its national title shot in a loss to eventual Big Ten champ Michigan State. In both cases, those were national champs trying to repeat.
What’s interesting is both 2009 Florida and 2015 Ohio State would have gotten another crack at the national title in a 12-team playoff format. And either one could have won the title under those circumstances.
In an era of seemingly increased parity and decreased depth among the superpowers, these Buckeyes have assembled an old, talented, deep group. It’s actually a similar scenario to last year’s Michigan team, which rode a veteran-heavy group to a national title (plus a third consecutive win against the Buckeyes). Multiple veteran defenders (edge rushers J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, safety Lathan Ransom, cornerback Denzel Burke) returned for one last ride, and Ohio State’s collective spent to make sure the Buckeyes could bolster the roster through the transfer portal.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day stood at the 50-yard line at last Saturday’s spring game and declared that this season hinges on “beating the team up north and winning a national championship.” Those are massive expectations, but all Day is doing is acknowledging the pressure he and everyone else in scarlet and gray can feel.
Oregon
Last national title: Never won one
The Ducks feel as if they’ve perpetually in the hunt for titles since the Chip Kelly era. They’ve played for the national title twice (2010 and 2014) but couldn’t break through. Now they’re considered an elite program with elite talent, but it’s fair to ask whether coach Dan Lanning and his team have actually proven they belong in that conversation.
Last year, the Ducks probably had the most talented roster in the Pac-12. They lost twice to Washington — once because they couldn’t execute on fourth down and once because they were dominated at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter. To get over the hump, they have to prove they can turn that talent into wins when it matters most.
This year, Oregon has imported another prolific veteran quarterback (Dillon Gabriel) to run the offense. The move to the Big Ten means the Ducks won’t have the best roster in the league — that’s Ohio State — but Oregon has recruited at an elite level and should be capable of playing with anyone in the country. It’s no accident that Fanduel set Oregon’s season win total at 10.5, tied with Ohio State, Texas and Georgia for the highest in the country.
And yet it seems as if Oregon hasn’t quite lived up to its potential recently. A national title certainly would erase any doubt as to whether Oregon belongs among the nation’s elite. But unlike at Ohio State this season, it doesn’t feel as if Oregon not winning the national title would be a crushing disappointment. Competing for the Big Ten title and making the 12-team CFP would be enough for now. That would inspire confidence that the Ducks will eventually break through and become the first first-time national champ since the 1996 Florida team.
Texas A&M
Last national title: 1939
No one is expecting Mike Elko to win a national title in his first year in College Station. The Aggies just spent six seasons expecting Jimbo Fisher to win a national title, and all that got them was a schedule of massive buyout payments.
But Texas A&M does have a decent talent base upon which to build, and if Elko can combine the coaching/culture wizardry he demonstrated in two seasons at Duke with the kind of high school and portal recruiting Texas A&M should be capable of, national title contention should be the goal.
It drives Texas A&M fans crazy that their program can’t seem to ever join the group of usual national title contenders. The Aggies have the location, the fan passion/motivation and the resources to be frequent contenders for conference and national titles. Yet no matter the conference — Southwest, Big 12 or SEC — they can’t ever seem to get over the hump. Other similarly resourced programs have fallen ass-backward into national titles, but the drought continues in Aggieland.
Fisher was supposed to be the coach who delivered the Aggies from this misery, but he just got rich failing. Now Elko, who arrives with nowhere near the expectations, has an opportunity to take all those positive attributes and turn them into tangible returns. Not handing him a blank national title trophy was a great start.
Texas
Last national title: 2005
The Longhorns staggered through the 2010s trying to recapture the glory of the 2000s. The program took serious backward steps in terms of development. But now Texas is… nah, we’re not going to say it quite yet.
And that’s why Texas needs to win a title. Not because the Longhorns are in a bad place. This merely would allow us to retire the Texas Is Back joke the way Georgia retired all the 1980 jokes following the 2021 season.
Last season felt like an indication that Steve Sarkisian has found the formula that works in Austin. As you’ll see in next week’s draft, Texas has started creating NFL players again. On the offensive line, those recruiting stars are turning into standout players again. (You’ll see exactly how dramatic the difference is there beginning with next year’s draft when tackle Kelvin Banks gets selected very, very early.)
Texas also has proven adept at effectively using the NIL system, which as other programs have learned the hard way isn’t just “throw money at players who were once high-profile recruits.” (Texas had to learn this, too.) Now, the Longhorns evaluate their own roster expertly. They know who to retain and concentrate the bulk of the resources there. Texas also has evolved into a team that targets exactly what it needs in the portal but doesn’t go crazy changing too much.
The degree of difficulty rises in the SEC, but the 12-team playoff ensures that if Texas is as good as it should be, it will have a shot at the title in a lot of years.
Oklahoma
Last national title: 2000
The Sooners are in a strange place. They haven’t won a national title in 24 years, but because they dominated the Big 12 for most of the 21st century we tend to lump them in with teams that won national titles more recently. Going 17-8 against Texas since 2000 also has been misleading, because what should have been a measuring stick game was not during the aforementioned period that Texas was walking through the wilderness. (That game definitely is a measuring stick now.)
The truth is that Oklahoma has lacked what it needs at the line of scrimmage to compete for national titles since the early 2010s. Brent Venables, who took over in 2022, clearly understands this and has tried to recruit the Sooners into a better spot. We’ll see if he can. This was always going to be a transition year for Oklahoma’s offensive line, but what Venables has to do is build a program so deep that the Sooners simply reload on the offensive and defensive lines. That’s what Alabama and Georgia do. It’s what Texas seems to be on the verge of doing.
Oklahoma is one of the most remarkably consistent winners in the sport. But to stay there after a conference switch, the Sooners have to build a team that can compete for the SEC title on an annual basis. Such a team also will be able to compete for the national title. Venables will get the first crack at building that program, but he understands that Oklahoma does not tolerate mediocrity.
Penn State
Last national title: 1986
For most of the four-team playoff era, the Nittany Lions lived in a strange purgatory. They were good enough to win double-digit games but usually weren’t good enough to overcome Ohio State and Michigan at the top of their own division. This plateau has led to frustration.
The 12-team playoff will break up that terrain, and it’s up to coach James Franklin to capitalize. Now Penn State will have no excuse. The system won’t keep the Nittany Lions from competing for a national title. But they’ll have to win their way through the tournament if they want to re-join the national title club.
Tennessee
Last national title: 1998
There are a LOT of usernames on the Internet that include some form of the phrase “Feels like ’98.” With all due respect — and that is a significant amount of respect — to Al Wilson, it’s time for Tennessee fans to stop living in the dial-up era. The good news is that feels possible now. From the end of the Phillip Fulmer era until Josh Heupel’s first season, it felt as if pining for the days just before Y2K was the only respite for one of the nation’s most passionate fanbases. It didn’t feel as if the Volunteers would ever get out of their own way.
It doesn’t feel like that anymore. The 2022 season showed Tennessee can be competitive on a big stage. The Vols have capitalized on the NIL/transfer portal rule changes. Now, consistent contention feels possible again. Tennessee will need to string together some good years to keep this feeling alive, but string together enough and the Vols might break through and win another title.