lazarus

i know, i am tooo slow. me, bledsoe, & fade all went 8-2 1aman (a regular season genius) & super went 7-3 privates go 7-3 to extend season mark to 132-76, playoff total goes to 16-7

privates lead 125-73 on the season 9-4 in the playoffs. ten privates still alive. all face publics this week. how many will survive to see round three? trousdale co at temple gordonsville at friendship jackson christian at mckenzie lake co at trinity cak at alcoa smith co at boyd buch lewis co at goodpasture cpa at camden austin east at knox cath spring hill at lipscum i say: tempo frendshyp jcu trinity alcola buoyed buck goodpleasure cpa knox cath lipscum privates 9-1

privates: year 116-69 playoffs 9-4 round 1 bledsow 11-2 laz 10-3 1aman 10-3 flayed 9-4

"Again, to all of you anticompetition people," bbseq...3:37pm today (10/31) what was that, a keypunch error? but i did delete my intemperate rant. it might have been cathartic to let off steam by keying it in, but serves no purpose to leave it there. however, i didnt say you should play nfl teams, i said i didnt care if you did. your attitude would not gain you a spot on my schedule.

"I will answer your question. Please try and answer mine." and the answer is no. even tho ya'll, or goodpasture, or boyd produce teams that could win games with those guys now and then, the schools are, as you say, "as different as night and day". i see no difference in the two questions.

"Indian, You like a lot of people lump all the private schools together." bighurt, you, like a lot of people, lump me & indian together (if i could use those little smiley faces, i'd put a laughing one here) "MBA, BA and Ensworth are as different from CPA, FRA and DCA as night and day in terms of facilities, funding, etc. Can you honestly look at Boyd and tell them they should be able to compete with Baylor and McCallie?" CPA, FRA, and DCA are as different from Collinwood, Cloudland, and Jo Byrns as night and day in terms of facilities, funding, etc. Can you honestly look at Fairview and tell them they should be able to compete with Goodpasture and Lipscum?

"I want to ask you this Indian. If a team like Trousdale can be so dominating then why can`t other small publics?" if BA can compete in 5-A, why cant other small privates?

"Just wondering...is your team moving up to 3a...4a...or 5a the next classification period? You know...since you are for competition...and all." i heard they were petitioning for admission to the 11-12 pop warner league, because those guys are in such bad need of competition.

Bishop Byrne (Memphis) David Brainerd (Chattanooga) Davidson Academy (Nashville) FACS (Cordova) Kings Academy (Seymour) Lighthouse Christian (Millington) Memphis Catholic (Memphis) Rosemark (Millington) Rossville SBEC (Southaven) St. Andrews (Sewanee) St. George's (Collierville) well, i was thinking more of this group... and pre-split. but you are probably right.

well, we can put the 116-69 regular season record aside, everyone starts at 0-0. 13 privates are playing publics in the playoffs (round 1), and i will be surprised if our picks arent almost all the same: 4. Knox Grace (4-6) at 1. Coalfield (10-0) 4. Monterey (6-4) at 1. Temple (10-0) 3. Union City (6-4) at 2. Jackson Christian (7-3) 3. Trinity Christian (8-2) at 2. Bruceton (6-4) 4. Lake Co (7-3) at 1. Fayette Ac (9-1) 3. CAK (7-3) at 2. South Greene (6-4) 4. Upperman (5-5) at 1 Boyd Buchanan (3-7) 4. Adamsville (4-6) at 1. Goodpasture (10-0) 3. Waverly (7-2) at 2. CPA (8-2) 4. DCA (6-4) at 1. Camden (9-1) 4. Gibbs (3-7) at 1. Knox Catholic (10-0) 3. White House (6-4) at 2. Notre Dame (8-2) 4. Fayette-Ware (6-4) at 1. David Lipscomb (9-1) my picks: coalfield temple JCU trinity fayette ac CAK boyd bloodpasture cpa dca knox cath noter dame lipscum (12-1 privates)

back to the original question on the thread, what if privates win the three smallest football classifications? here are some interesting numbers: privates won 62.7% of their games with publics this year. if we make the assumption that they should win 62.7% of their playoff games, based on the distribution of privates in the brackets: there is a 63.9% chance that a private will win single A there is a 48.5% chance of a private winning double A in triple A, there would only be a 29.1% chance of a private winner. the odds of winning all three? only 9.0% of course, the odds are not supposed to be "even" in every game, the brackets are seeded. (altho 4's historically win 20% of their games with 1's in the first round) i didnt factor that in, because i am lazy, and the sample size is enough to minimize the effect on the final numbers. there are different ways to figure the probability of having 3 private champions; looking at it, instead, based on having a single private in each class that has a 90% probability of winning in each playoff game, each of those teams would only have a 59.0% probability of actually winning their class. the odds of all 3 of them winning would drop to 20.6% if you increased that winning probablility to 95%, the odds of winning each division improve to 77.4%, and winning all 3 is still less than 50/50, at 46.3% of course, in the 90% & 95% scenarios the alternative winner could conceivably still be a private school, so the odds of 3 privates winning would be a little better than those listed. anyone else have a different approach?

"Does anyone wonder if the move to 5 classes had anything to do with the apparent recent domination of private schools?" it wasnt the move to 5 classes, it was the formation of d-2. i dont have the numbers handy here, but the winning percentage for privates went way up after the split. many (maybe most) of the financial aid schools are not athletic powerhouses. i havent looked recently, but the d-1 privates used to win more than they lost against the d-2 privates (as a whole). i doubt that has changed.

privates did indeed go 11-5 and end the regular season at 116-69 (.627) publics' second consecutive year to win over 1/3 of the games. but more important: supersleeve & bleedsew tied for the week at 11-5 laz was third at 10-6 1aman finally had a bad week at 9-7 and poor old failed pattern only managed 8-8

"You mean there is no prize??" it isnt enough that we all stand in awe of your knowledge?

"For instance take his weekly, pointless public v. private thread. For last week, the private schools won 14 of 25 games (56% private wins, 44% public wins). The records of those public schools that lost were a combined 58-88 (39% wins). Soooooooo, did they do better agains the privates than they do in their normal schedule or worse. According to laz, he would say the privates had an advantage." 1) that BBQ is one mean guy. he knows how hard it is for me to just scroll past numbers. (no matter how little time i have) 2) of course the weekly public v private is pointless. we are just having some fun. (it is good for public & private guys to just have some fun, its a bonding thing) 3) you stacked the deck against yourself. by taking only the records of the losing publics, it was guaranteed they had a better overall record. they won 0% last week. 39% overall is WAAAAY better. (or was i supposed to be distracted by the similarity between the overall publics % last week, and the losers overall season %?) 4) i question your data collection methods. 58 + 88 would be 146 games. only 14 publics lost, that would mean they had played 10.42 games apiece leading into last week (or even including last week), not possible in week 9. 5) the lure to pull in some numbers was irresistable, because the reason we all had such a close "pick" last week was the number of good publics playing. the actual record of ALL the publics that played privates last week (against other publics only) was 89-74 (54.6%) that is considerably better than the 44% they won last week. 6) over time the public vs public record will find its way to 50%, thus a large enough sample size negates the need to make multi-level comparisons... unless there is some factor stacking the publics that participate against privates? 7) a 25 game, 1 week sample is not enough to draw solid conclusions, you cannot speak for me any more. now i have to find a new spokesman, dadgummit (i am laughing in a goodnatured manner)

"Have private schools won more TSSAA awarded state championships in the past several years than public schools? I don't really know the answer to that, but in the only sport that matters, football, yes. Is that proof that trend is permanent? No. These things ebb and flow." ok. starting in 1972 the private schools have a winning record against the publics in football every year except 1979 and 1993. do you have some idea when that "ebb" is going to come into play? and in answer to volgen's query (i think it was on this thread), it isnt so much urban dominating rural as it is affluent dominating not affluent.

thats easy. the worst refs are in the stands or along the fence... they dont know the rules, they're hopelessly biased for one team, they make calls on plays they cant see, on the far side of the field, and they cant focus on the current play because they are worried about one that happened while ago. good thing they have no authority.

privates are safely in the lead 105-64 slim 16 game slate this week: CAK at Sweetwater Copper Basin at Silverdale Grace Chr. at Cosby Kings Academy at Lookout Valley Notre Dame at Polk County Scott County at Knoxville Catholic Tyner at Boyd-Buchanan Clarksville Academy at McEwen Columbia Academy at Huntland DCA at East Robertson Eagleville at Nashville Christian Montgomery Central at David Lipscomb Zion Christian at Perry County Ensworth at Arlington Middleton at Jackson Christian Univ. School Jackson at Dresden my picks: cak silverdell gracie c lockout no dames knox cath tiener mcewen columbiac dca eggville lipscum perrico enswuth jcs usj 11-5 privates

as expected, this was a great week for the publics. losing to the privates only 14-11, their deficit now stands at 105-64 to no ones surprise, 1 amen continues his domination: 1 amen 24-1 laz 22-3 bledsaw 21-4 flayed 20-5 supersleeve 18-7 there is talk of applying a multiplier to 1aman.

privates enter this week clinging to a narrow 91-53 margin. with 25 games, if the publics run the table, it still wont be close! Austin-East at Knoxville Webb CAK at Rockwood Cloudland at Grace Chr. Cosby at Kings Academy Kingston at Knoxville Catholic Lookout Valley at Grace Bap Silverdale at South Pittsburg Temple at Copper Basin Baylor at Coffee County Clarksville Academy at Cascade Clay County at Mt. Juliet Christian David Lipscomb at Marshall County East Robertson at CPA Fairview at Franklin Road Academy Grundy County at Notre Dame Harpeth at Goodpasture Moore County at Zion Christian Mt. Pleasant at Columbia Academy Nashville Christian at White House - Heritage Pope John Paul at Franklin County Trousdale County at Friendship Christian Tyner at BGA Huntingdon at Univ. School Jackson Rossville Christian Academy at Arlington Trinity Christian at Wayne County laz' picks: austin beast cak gracie c bill cosby knox cath lockout valley spitts temple bailer cascade mt julie lipscum cpa fairview & the mean jeans noter dame goodpleasure more co mt p whh pjp fiendship tyner huntingdon arly town trinity i know, i know. only took the privates 13-12. but the publics are due a week somewhere along the way (and if it dont happen soon, it aint gonna happen)

obviously the depth disadvantage suffered by the privates under the multiplier has been too much to overcome. this week the privates win 15-6. the year tally extends to 91-53. me, 1aman, and afraid pattern all tied at 18-3. supersleeve got doinked by community and brings up the rear at 17-4.

"how often does a player run in a straight line for 40 yards in a football game?" not all that often... but, if you think about it, when a player does run in a straight line for 40 yards, it is generally a VERY important play.

privates with a pretty safe 76-47 lead, 21 games: boid buchanion at sequatchie jellico at grace X knox cathoholic at fulton noter dame at tellico planes silverdale at whitwell so pitt at temple tyner at mccallie wartburg at cak cpa at fairview dca at harpeth ensworth at community forrest at ncs fra at east robertson fcs at gordoinsville giles co at lipscum joe burns at clarksac mt juliet x at trouserdale co zion x at huntland fayette ac at middleton manassas at trinity x usj at humboldt my choices for the week: the boids gracex fulton no dames silverpie sopitt mccallie cak cpa dca ensworthy forest er fcs dl jo b trousers huntland fa trinity usj (14-7 privates)

great week for the publics... they only fell 10-8. of course, narrow losses dont close the gap. publics are now 29 games in the hole, 76-47. it was also a good week for laz. i tied the unbeatable 1Aman at 16-2 fade (15-3) and super (14-4) trailed.

"Has the TSSAA board of control given the merit system full consideration?" i am under the impression that silverfly at least attempted to present a proposal, i dont know how far that got. i have brought the subject up on a couple of occasions to a member of the board of control. my impression is that; a) you dont advance in public school administration by not listening courteously and you dont advance in public school administration by getting anywhere near the cutting edge. no merit system will be considered without the support of someone influential. maybe, just maybe, if the privates could present a fairly united front, and pull in support from a few of the publics, you could at least get a foot in the door. anyone have any other ideas? ps. sorry about the smiley face. i dont know how it got in there, and i dont know how to remove it.