Oh I'm ignorant? You've obviously don't have a good understanding of your subjects. What you have described is statistics, and the little math you described was basic 10-2=8. Hey, I do commend you for trying to explain math, but there are some problems in your "theory". You're trying to say that Because team A beat team B and Team C beat team A and Team D beat team B by a certain score that this game will be close, but you're forgetting the important variables like speed, physicality, mentality, and toughness.
You've dug yourself in a hole, I suggest you get out of this very quick before you end up looking stupid.