OldFootballPlayer

According to Sonny Moore, this is going to be a close game. His latest ratings place Westmoreland at 170 in the state with a power rating of 105.88 and he ranked TC at 177 with a power rating of 104.77. When you add the two points Sonny recommends for home field advantage, TC has a 0.89 advantage. Does that mean that TC might win this game by a score like 21-20? I think Sonny’s ratings normally get better and better as each week’s games are added to his formula. However, I doubt if his formula places enough weight on TC’s last two victories - TC’s two best games (by far) of the season.

You are correct. I skipped down to the fifth tie breaker, because if I counted everything correctly and Westmoreland defeats TC, and SC defeats Monterey, neither team wins the first tie breaker (I.e., one team defeated all the other teams tied for third place). Then neither team wins the second tie breaker (I.e., team with most victories - all three teams would have 5 victories. Westmoreland and Monterey would still be tied after the third tie breaker (I.e., team that plays the most teams with .500 or better records). Westmoreland and Monterey would both have played 8 teams with records of .500 or better. TC drops out because they only played 7 teams with .500 or better records. Westmoreland and Monterey would tie on the fourth tie breaker (I.e., the team with the most wins over teams with .500 or better records). Both teams’ total for tie breaker 4 would be 3. Westmoreland would win tie breaker 5 (I.e., the team whose opponents won the most games) - 53 to 51. Therefore, Westmoreland wins third place in the region and TC wins fourth place because TC wins the first tie breaker over Monterey by defeating Monterey in head-to-head competition during the regular season. All of the above assumes Westmoreland defeats TC and SC defeats Monterey. If TC defeats Westmoreland, TC finishes in third place and Monterey finishes in fourth place regardless of who wins the SC - Monterey game. I don’t guarantee that all of the above is accurate. If you see an error, please point it out to me.

Actually, TC has had two good games in a row - Monterey an Clay County. If they play as well as they did in those two games, I think they have a good chance to beat Westmoreland.

I could have made a clerical or mathematical error, but I counted Westmoreland’s opponents (to date) have won 53 games and Monterey’s opponents have won 51 games. However, even if I am right for now, we don’t know how many games each team’s opponents will win this week. If Westmoreland’s opponents do have more wins after this week’s games, Westmoreland beats TC, and SC beats Monterey, then Westmoreland beats out Monterey for third place. Then, applying the first tie breaker for fourth place, TC wins because with equal records, the first tie breaker is did one of the teams tied beat all the other teams tied. Since there would be only two teams tied for fourth place, and TC beat the other team tied for fourth place, TC wins the tie for fourth place even if they lose to Westmoreland. This stuff can be confusing, and can get to be a little complex. Therefore, I wouldn’t bet the farm that my analysis above is correct, but as an Old Yellow Jacket, I just hope the playoff streak continues.

Please indicate which school goes with each score.