District 4-A will finish its tournament tomorrow night and I am saddened that District 3-A did not complete its tournament, although I understand Monroe County administration level personnel prohibited Tellico from playing any games on a Sunday. Such is life, but I believe the Meigs-Grace game would have been a good one. I wonder about the Harriman-Tellico game because the Tellico kids played with no desire, effort or intensity against Meigs; but, contrary to some comments in this thread, I do agree that high school kids are totally unpredictable and this poor effort could have simply been a blip on the screen. We will see.
While we do not know the exact seeding for District 4-A, I think it is time we begin to attempt to analyze the potential matchups. (It may be that another thread needs to be started but I suspect that will happen once the seeds are set.)
I have checked the schedules for the schools that will compete for the Region 2-A title and have found that the remaining 3-A teams have not lost a game to the remaining 4-A teams. With this in mind, let's look at the records:
3-A:
Grace (19-8) (Only 1 loss to a single A team – Meigs)
Meigs (26-5)
Tellico (20-9)
Harriman (19-10)
4-A:
Oakdale (21-9) (2 losses to Meigs by 11 & 5)
Coalfield (15-13) (1 loss each to Meigs by 21 & Tellico by 2, with 1 bad loss to Greenback by 5)
Jellico (15-15) (1 loss to Meigs by 1)
Olive Springs (10-21) (2 losses to Harriman by 6 & 9 and 1 loss each to Grace by 18, Meigs by 1 & Tellico by 10
Possible Games:
OS vs Grace: OS does not handle the ball well and Grace has the size and physicality to match OS. Grace has much more talent then OS and its man-to man defense will cause multiple turnovers. Grace should win this game at home.
OS vs Meigs: Meigs has better talent than OS. Meigs will pack it in to take away OS height advantage and try to force OS to shoot 3's. Meigs has much more talent than OS. Meigs should win this game at home.
Jellico vs Grace: Grace has more size (Arnold & Shepherd), physicality (Shepherd & Kelly) and talent than Jellico but Jellico has the Bowlin kid, a really good point guard who can score and drop the dimes. Grace has no on ball defender who can stop a good point guard. This is why both Zy and Pace ate them up. Unless Grace zones Jellico (which most likely will not happen) I see the same happening in this game, but Grace's talent and height advantage will give them the win at home.
Jellico vs Meigs: Meigs also has more size (all around), physicality (Meadows & Moore) and talent than Jellico. Meigs will likely use a 3-2 zone against Jellico like it did Tellico (or, given Jellico's lack of height their normal 1-2-2) and try to force Jellico to shoot contested 3's. The way Meigs is currently playing they should win this game at home.
Coalfield vs Tellico: These 2 teams met the 1st game of the season in a game that Coalfield was missing its football players and Tellico was learning an entirely new offensive and defensive system. There are really no takeaways from that game worth mentioning. Last year Tellico traveled to Coalfield and got blown out in region play. Coalfield seems to be playing well right now while Tellico has slumped just a tad. Tellico has the post advantage due to its height (Hunt & Carter) and physicality (Rhinehart & Bookout) and Coalfield has the guard advantage due to the shooting of Lee and the ball handling and all around play of McKinney. This game will largely depend on which Tellico team shows up, the one that lost to Rockwood and played horribly last Thursday against Meigs or the one that beat Meigs twice. If the former then Coalfield wins handily at home and if the later Tellico wins a close game on the road.
Coalfield vs Harriman: Harriman should have the advantage in the post with Gresham and Witherspoon. Pace can match Lee or McKinney but not both, giving Coalfield the advantage at the guard position. Harriman has not played very good defense all year long, preferring instead to up the tempo of the game and play in the open court. In its loss to Meigs, Harriman's effort and intensity level were high and their defense in the half court improved. This may be due to a switch from full court pressing and man-to-man defense to a 1-1-3 zone defense playing high and wide looking to close out on 3 point shooters and pick off cross court passes, something they did fairly well against Grace last Thursday night. If this game devolves into a run and gun game it will favor Harriman because Harriman plays its best in the open court, but if it remains a half court slow down game the advantage goes to Coalfield on its home court. Too close to call.
Oakdale vs Tellico: These teams played during the 1st summer camp of the season so there are no takeaways from that game. Oakdale has the height advantage and should remain true to its formula of full court pressing and playing man-to-man defense. Oakdale will readily admit it does not focus on defense but instead wants to speed the game up and get the score in the 70's to 80's. Oakdale features a strong post presence with Smith and good shooting with Steinmetz. Although Tellico is not adverse to running, it has been playing quite a bit of zone lately and will probably look to slow Oakdale down, front the post and force Oakdale to beat it from the outside. With the way Oakdale plays defense Tellico's guards should have a decent night getting to the paint. Oakdale struggled with a 10-21 Oliver Springs team in the semifinals and Tellico played terribly against Meigs in the semifinals. Depends on who shows up. Too close to call.
Oakdale vs Harriman: This could be a very entertaining game given both teams like speeding up the game and playing in the open court. Harriman should have the advantage at the guard position with Pace being a little more explosive in the open court than Steinmetz, but Oakdale should have the advantage inside with Smith. Most of what I said about Oakdale vs Tellico would apply here but I should add that if Pace gets to the paint easily against Oakdale he will likely light them up. Given Harriman's improved defense and willingness to try and slow the game down defensively in the half court I give a slight advantage to Harriman in this game.
Your thoughts?