fish5

AAA - I'm a Shelbyville fan, and historically Oak Ridge has been arguably the 2nd best AAA program in the state over the last 2 decades...so when OR coach Jill Pruden states this might be her best team ever, and it is undefeated within the state, I'd make OR the slight favorite over Memphis Central - with a few teams such as WC, Morristown West and Hillsboro as dark horses.

Shelbyville always reloads. With the current roster, they'll lose their senior guard and their 6'4' post, but they'll still be pretty tough in the post next year, and their 3-guard attack of this year won't weaken much either. In stregth, I'll give the nod to this year's team over next year's...but they won't be down too much. They'll have a chance at another state run.

So...any predictions on Smrna and Cleveland?

Pantherbert is right. Let's get back on the topic of factually justifying the facts of the match-ups in AAA. This thread is not about only Bartlett and Greeneville. Any comments on justifying predictions on the other three match-ups and beyond?

It'd be nice to see Shelbyville, WC and/or Oak Ridge travel to the Memphis holiday tournaments. They often go to out of state events, but Memphis is almost perceived as another state in the realms of Middle TN and E. TN girls basketball. Teams like Shelbyville and Oak Ridge have the means to attend the NIKE event with the best teams in the nation many years, and they may not feel they would get enough competition/different looks in Memphis compared to other tournaments. But...you can't come to that conclusion until you've attended the Memphis events even once. Does anyone know definitively why top M. and E. Tennessee programs don't attend the Memphis holiday events?

Pardon my naivete compared to the real world experience with which you must deal. You made some very valid points above. You're doing a great job with a young team. Bartlett will get more respect next year. But...shouldn't you be watching some game tape right now rather than responding to a bunch of amateur armchair quarterbacks like us? [Do you have access to such tapes of state opponents?]

The topic is girl's AAA. No one is doubting boy's basketball in West Tennessee, and W. TN occasionally pulls off a champion in girl's AAA, but history demonstrates W. TN is behind middle and then E. TN in girl's AAA. Both Millington and Barttlett had comparatively weak schedule strengths. Anything can happen at state, but to make a bold prediction that [Millington and Bartlett] "WILL meet in the finals to make it an all West Tenn finals" is the least likeliest scenario in the entire draw, based on facts. And it is not the focus of this thread. Please put your partisanship aside and offer some facts. If either 14AAA teams played the schedule of WC, Greeneville or Shelbyville, their records would be weaker. This also makes Oak Ridge and Cleveland suspect. Both have strong programs perennially, but they each played some of the weakest schedules this year. That may affect their results when they're up against the battle-hardened middle TN teams who take turns bashing each other back and forth. If Cleveland and Oak Ridge make it to the finals, I guess you can throw strength of schedule out the door, but (more times than not) testing your program regularly during the season against the toughest teams works in your favor this time of year. I remember the UT women losing 10 games about ten years ago, but they easily played the toughest schedule in the land, and it worked in their favor when they won the national championship against all the other teams with 1 loss here or two losses there. But...all that said, I would never doubt that coaches Pruden (Oak Ridge) and Moore (Cleveland) will be taken for granted by anyone! They have the track record to prove it. The programs of Millington and Bartlett aren't at that level yet. But I wish them well, and I'll be the first one to chuckle at myself if Millington and Barttlett make it to the finals. But...in accordance with this thread, let's produce facts to neutralize any partisanship.

You make some very valid points. If Millington had Greeneville's strength of schedule or played in 9AAA or 8AAA in middle Tennessee, they would not have only one loss. For the reasons you state, I think Greeneville has an excellent chance of "upsetting" Millington. And - if they do - it won't be an upset. But it will only get harder for Greeneville after the first round, and I don't think they have the complete team (even with Dickson's talents) to get to the finals.

I understand you're being a Greeneville fan, but what is your justification for Greeneville over Millington? Greeneville should be congratulated for 5 straight trips to the Boro, but they haven't done much damage once there, and their performance this year is similar to past years. Does this team have something more special than the other four with similar records?

So, Jim, why do you pick Cleveland over Smyrna?

It would be nice to see W. Tenn. win; doesn't happen too often. But I don't think Bartlett is the real challenger at this level. Millington is. I didn't get to watch Millington's recent 42-22 win over Bartlett on a neutral court. Any details explaining that?

Cleveland has a lot of talent - no doubt; but they did NOT lose by 7 to "#1" Christ the King on CTK's home court. Over the last 20 years, CTK has the best reputation for their program nationally over any other team - even Shelbyville; but this year is one of their down years. Murry Bergtraum of Manhattan (the current #2 team nationally) might have a stronger program these days, diluting CTK's past recruiting advantages. CTK has struggled this year and is NOT ranked in the top 25 or even the regional rankings. Most other years, a 7-point loss on CTK's home court would still be impressive...but not this year. The 7-point loss this year to non-ranked CTK on CTK's home court is not a resume builder. The eventual TN state championship team this year should be favored to beat CTK - even on CTK's home court. That's one reason I don't pick Cleveland to win it all. They have the guns to have a chance, but I don't put them as the favorite.

That's how I see it too. WC will probably get by Bartlett, but they won't be favored against either Oak Ridge or Shelbyville.

Millington might be the real thing, but I think you're giving Bartlett too much credit. They lost to some mediocre teams and got crushed last outing by Millington on a neutral court. Millington still has a lot to prove outside W. Tennessee, but I don't think Bartlett is going to stack up at the State level - especially predicting Bartlett might win this. Millington has a good chance, but I don't think Bartlett is in the same class. But if Bartlett can get by a JC-less WC team, I will be a believer. JC or not, WC has enough talent to still be dangerous at state level. Minus JC won't weaken them to much with some adjustments.

I agree. I think JC's loss takes them out of any favorite position at state.