randymc

And what reason would you believe the variation of the test statistic in this hypothetical would be STRONGLY non-normal?

So you would feel comfortable with Arlington's opponent getting to pick heads everytime this coin was tossed to begin a game or overtime, knowing the results of those 46 trials? LOL

So you are telling me that the 1/1000 chance we would see 33 heads is reasonable? come on, usually 5% or less is considered statistically significant.

But you HAVE watched enough basketball to have the opinion that Memphis plays the best basketball in the state, otherwise you would have posted the same answer you posted about football? You earlier stated "Memphis would be my opinion" when asked where the best basketball in the state was played year in and year out, but your post above says you haven't watched enough football across the state to know where the best football was played year in and year out. Why can't we infer that you have seen enough basketball across the state to have that opinion?

keep reading please! it goes on to give the rule of thumb I stated for sample sizes. It gives a basic rule of thumb on how to determine the appropriate sample size. I'll continue to quote a little more, since you just like reading the 1st 3 sentences. "There is no universal constant at which the sample size is generally considered large enough to justify use of the plug-in test. Typical rules of thumb range from 20 to 50 samples. For larger sample sizes, the t-test procedure gives almost identical p-values as the Z-test procedure." You don't get it do you?

Wow, I thought I was going to bed. Pick the statistics book of your choice then. If you flip a coin 46 times and got 33 heads, we could calculate the probability of getting these results, it would be a very small probability inferring one of two things. The coin is fair and you are observing a very unusual outcome, or the coin is not fair, it's up to you to decide which. I believe the probability of 33 heads in 46 tosses is somewhere around .1%, 1 out of 1000 pretty small, agreed?

Fair enough, I on the other hand have, and have talked to people across the entire state who have seen lots of games. You obviously have watched enough basketball games across the state to logically reach your opinion that the best basketball in the state is played in Memphis? Goodnight!

"There is no universal constant at which the sample size is generally considered large enough to justify use of the plug-in test. Typical rules of thumb range from 20 to 50 samples." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-test)

Actually, this is the 1st year that we have NOT had all of our District 7 teams (old redion 4) in the same Quad. We've never liked it, having to beat all the teams you already beat. The fact of the matter is that the teams in Quad 3 have only lost 7 combined games to teams not in Quad 3! And if you are talking about middle vs. middle, quad 3 is always middle vs middle, quad 2 is typically 2 or 3 east teams and 5 or 6 middle teams. I saw somewhere in a post in another thread that you have been watching high school football for 10 years. Please do some research. Every year we have more middle vs. middle games than West vs. West. Show me a year where we didn't? Last year I think there were 17 middle TN teams in the playoffs, forcing Independence into Quad 4. I am sure you will not like this reply, but they are facts.

One more question before I call it a night, where, in your opinion, is the best football (at the highest classification) in the state of TN played year in and year out?

I have told you about the statistics and how there are ways to determine if results from observed data is a result of chance or randomness, or whether there are other factors involved, I will leave it to you to calculate the results. But I think you would agree that under the current playoff format one would expect 50% of the finalists to be from middle, TN no?

This was in response to your suggestion of dividing out the bottom four teams from the quads and putting them in other quads, but I guess I can't deny saying it, and it probably wasn't accurate, I am sure they wouldn't mind those, being the bottom 4 teams in Quad 3, and, BTW none of them are "my teams"

46 was just where i drew the line, we could go back to other playoff systems if you wanted.

PLEASE quote where I listed teams you didn't want in your quad, i'll be waiting. And I didn't reseed them to make me happy, I just played around with it to see what the brackets would look like if you seeded 1st then grouped geographically. I am glad you decided to give up the statistics argument though.

Now see, I didn't say that, please stop thinking and start reading. I said the coach laughed, as in laughed when asked if he wanted to play a home and home against Oakland. Not implied fear, but maybe it's the fact that most coaches under this playoff formula would not want to schedule tough competition. It's a by-product of the current playoff system. I know another middle and a Chattanooga area coach that responded the same way, so the West TN coach isn't alone.

Please learn to quote properly, I missed this one. I would say I don't want West TN teams playing in our Substae or Region tournaments, because I can handle the truth. Also, please go back and reply to the post where I stated that the west doesn't want the middle to play in their bracket.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE dont try to talk to me about statistics. I fully understand that, but there are statistical measures to measure how far off from the expected the observed results are and how confident we can be that the results are due to randomness or whether it is highly unlikely to see certain results (please google t-test, z-test, and inferential statistics) And if you are talking basic statistics, this year it is skewed to the East, no?

It is a FACT, that OHS has trouble scheduling games under this playoff format. I know that OHS would play any of the listed teams in a home and home game (they are already looking at going to Alcoa to play them or Maryville in a double header with possibly another District 7 team because of it). Oakland is looking for games, PERIOD and calling ANYONE who might be good competition for them. I can't help the FACT that there are fewer west TN 6A teams either. Thank you, and good luck to your team.

OHS and RHS would have both been in last year, they had enough overall wins. There were wildcard teams last year too. I would say they fixed THAT problem, not THE problem.

And if you had to answer the same question "Year in and year out the best basketball in the state of TN is played where?" EXACTLY, yet you INFER things I never said! NOW, 33 out of the last 46 state finalists have been from middle TN. If we were to take you're argument, statistically speaking we would expect half of them, 23, to have been from middle TN based on the unfair bracket alone (this is called the null hypothesis in statistics), anyway, you see that results of 33 instead of 23 is statistically significant meaning that the brackets didn't produce these results

SO, if I were to say that year in and year out, Memphis has the best basketball teams in the state of TN, you would say.....

SO, am I to INFER that you are saying we should be forces to trim our enrollments to make things easier for the smaller 6A teams to compete? lol

Nope, never did, all of our teams have been beaten this year. I am sure you still haven't looked at the bracket i would have drawn up, i don't expect you to educate yourself and look at it. Ok let's look at numbers, or facts as you like to call them. There are 17 6A schools east of Cookeville, 24 6A schools between Cookeville and Brighton, 14 6A schools between Brighton and the Mississippi River. You might want an East/West Semifinal, but TSSAA would never let that happen, and of course you would be crying about middle TN always having a team in the championship game. BTW are you trying to tell me Oak Ridge, Bradley Central, and Soddy Daisy qualify as middle TN teams? Basically East and Middle are pretty much equally represented. 11 East, 14 middle TN teams, 7 West...just about the same proportion of schools in each, actually East TN is over represented if you look at those FACTS. Can we conclude in those years that Quad 3 defeated Quad 4 in the semi finals that the teams in Quad 4 couldn't have won Quad 3? I am sure you think that probably every team in quad 4 could win Quad 2 any year. Come on, you are about to argue yourself around in a circle. Quit implying what I mean, I say what I mean, you are making the implications. You don't believe me that it's a fact that a certain 8-2 school in west TN laughed at the thought of playing Oakland. If you don't believe me, get the coach to call our coach and schedule the game and she what that coach tells you. I have always agreed with this statement, that's the only way to do it IF you want a fair tournament. But none of the TSSAA tournaments are done that way, so no reason to start now.

Thank you for replying, since I will not....obviously I have stated my opinion as facts, and obviously the facts there have been several middle vs. middle finals are my opinion and not facts, and OBVIOUSLY I have implied that our teams are unbeatable, eventhough there is not a single unbeaten team among them (athough there are only 7 losses among quad 3 teams to teams that aren't in quad 3, and 1 being to a Ensworth)....these FACTS are seen by others as opinions. FACT that unapproved website found District 7AAA to be 8th toughest league in the country (http://www.dnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=201010110318) but again, that's my opinion, I must have dreamt all this up. Does it guarantee us a state championship, of course not, does it make our teams better to play against each other. Same website happens to Rank all TN teams Smyrna, Oakland, Blackman, Ensworth after Friday's games. Ridgeway checks in at #11 and Whitehaven #14. But that's all on paper.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE READ more and POST less. This whole argument is about fairness. Check my post on the quads I would have drawn up before you talk to me about fairness. I have NEVER said Middle TN teams would dominate West TN teams every year, all the time, forever and ever. Someone else did post that 15 of the past 20 champions are from middle tn, that my friend is not opinion, but FACTS that you choose to overlook. In many of those years it was Middle vs Middle. READ more, I will not reply to any more of your posts. I do understand that you are a relatively new member to CoachT, long time posters know my track record. BTW, you never told us your school....