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ChrisATN

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  1. To have 7 regions the playoff bracket would either have to involve a bye for some (but not all) region winners, or there would have to be at-large teams added. Either way would require some type of computer power ranking system, and that's obviously not going to happen again anytime soon.
  2. There wouldn't be any fair way to seed/bracket playoffs without it being a factor of 8.
  3. All of this makes the English Premier League's promotion/relegation system seem smarter and smarter every day.
  4. The classification groupings that have been released are purely based on enrollments. Alcoa's enrollment is in middle of the pack for 3A.
  5. I think one of the Sevier County schools will end up in Region 1 to balance out the numbers since Elizabethton is moving up. More than likely that would end up being Northview Academy. Anyone of these that moves up (i.e. Alcoa) could keep Northview in 2 or possibly shift Loudon to 2 Here's my guess for 1 thru 3: Region 1 Unicoi Co. Claiborne Northview Academy Johnson Co. West Greene Chuckey-Doak Region 2 Scott Pigeon Forge Kingston Alcoa Austin-East Gatlinburg-Pittman Region 3 Red Bank McMinn Central Loudon Signal Mountain Sweetwater Brainerd
  6. District 1 will probably be Science Hill, Dobyns-Bennett, Jefferson Co., Bearden, Hardin Valley, Farragut, and Morristown West. District 2 would be William Blount, Bradley Central, Maryville, Heritage, McMinn Co., Cleveland, and Ooltewah. This would be the least amount of travel for the teams overall.
  7. Elizabethton announced they will request to move up to 4A. http://www.elizabethton.com/2016/10/18/gardenhour-elizabethton-to-request-move-to-4a-in-football/
  8. Very true. The other thing to keep in mind is that even though a school requests to play up, the TSSAA can say no...especially if it would creating a big travel burden for other schools.
  9. I don't think the cutoffs will be set between schools that are that close...they will leave schools that close in enrollments in same class unless one of them requests to move up. I do think that some of the cutoffs will be adjusted to account for some district alignment issues that they may be facing, as well as to accommodate some teams already stated desires to move up (i.e. Elizabethton). I had posted earlier that I thought Harriman would be the largest 1A school, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in 2A in order to balance the travel out for the some of the districts in that part of the state. It's obviously just a fun guessing game for now until more info comes out, but I do think the TSSAA is more sensitive to close enrollment numbers at the cutoff points than people think.
  10. I was missing Republic High School. They aren't eligible for playoffs until next year. They will be in 1A.
  11. Look over my list and see if I am missing someone. Class 1A 248 Harriman 373 249 Oakhaven 366 250 Dresden 362 251 Mt. Pleasant 353 252 Monterey 352 253 Jo Byrns 349 254 Oliver Springs 341 255 Unaka 341 256 Fayetteville 336 257 Perry Co. 334 258 Jellico 331 259 Huntingdon 330 260 B. T. Washington 328 261 Gordonsville 327 262 Grace Christian Academy - Franklin 324 263 Middleton 323 264 Cornersville 321 265 Whitwell 321 266 Hancock Co. 315 267 Westwood 312 268 Hillcrest 311 269 McEwen 311 270 West Carroll 311 271 Wayne Co. 309 272 Memphis Middle College 299 273 Sale Creek School 295 274 Clay Co. 287 275 Collinwood 284 276 Humboldt 282 277 Moore Co. 275 278 Huntland 272 279 Midway 272 280 South Pittsburg 240 281 South Fulton 235 282 Greenback 234 283 Cloudland 233 284 Copper Basin 228 285 Pickett Co. 226 286 Lake Co. 223 287 Red Boiling Springs 204 288 Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central 184 289 Oakdale 183 290 Sunbright 183 291 Coalfield 180 292 Greenfield 176 293 Lookout Valley 172 294 Gleason 166 295 KIPP Memphis Collegiate School 164
  12. Since it's the night before they release the classifications, here's my updated projections. As I had mentioned in my earlier post, my projections take into account the enrollment groupings at the cutoff points. I've also looked at geographies for each class and how districts would work out, so that is taken into account as well. We'll see how close these are tomorrow, then I'll post my guess at districts (FWIW, I think the district alignments are where it really gets interesting). Couple notes: first, I had an error in my data spreadsheet that I used for my previous post which inadvertently left off one of the 6A schools. Because of this, the count in my previous post was shifted a little. Second...after looking at the numbers and the possible districts, I think it is HIGHLY unlikely that the TSSAA holds to an exactly equal division of teams for each class. Doing this would put some teams in some bad travel situations, so I think this is going to have a big impact on the cutoff locations. 6A: 51 schools- Southwind (1496) last team in 5A: 49 schools- Morristown East (1472) first in; Portland (1089) last. 4A: 50 schools- Liberty Tech Magnet (1083) first; Elizabethton (819) last. 3A: 49 schools- Wooddale (808) first; Cumberland Gap (554) last. 2A: 49 schools- Forrest (547) first; Richland (375) last. 1A: 48 schools- Harriman (373) first.
  13. If Knoxville Catholic stays D1, they will be 94th in enrollment...near the bottom of 5A. Here are my projections (for whatever it's worth). Note that I don't believe they will make the classes an exact even distribution across the board based on closeness of enrollments for schools near the cutoff lines, so this list takes that into account somewhat. An example is there are 3 schools at top of my 4A list that are at enrollment of 1083, 1082, and 1081. It would be tough to justify pushing one school up to 5A due to a 1 student difference, and it would overload 5A if they moved all three schools up. My projected classification sizes and cutoff schools are as follows: 6A: 50 schools- Southwind (1496) last team in 5A: 48 schools- Morristown East (1472) first in; Portland (1089) last. 4A: 50 schools- Liberty Tech Magnet (1083) first; Giles County (820) last. 3A: 49 schools- Wooddale (808) first; Cumberland Gap (554) last. 2A: 49 schools- Forrest (547) first; Harriman (373) last. 1A: 48 schools- Oakhaven (366) first. This also assumes Elizabethton elects to move up a to 4A, which has been part of the discussion in the District 1 area. If they elect not to, then 3A will end up with 50 schools. I don't have info for other schools that are considering playing up, so if anyone has that info let me know. For the privates that have not declared yet (as of October 11), their Division 1 classification would be as follows, if they elect to stay (actually enrollment & D1 multiplier enrollment included): Knoxville Catholic (619, 1114.2) - 5A (would make this class 49 schools) Lipscomb Academy (518, 932.4)- 4A (would make this class 51 schools) Notre Dame (419, 754.2)- 3A (would make this class 50 schools) Middle Tennessee Christian (235, 423)- 2A (would make this class 50 schools)
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