6A - Region 4 Down the Final Stretch

[steelcityroller]

As we get into the final stretch of the regular season the playoff picture is becoming clear.

Currently in the region you have Mt. Juliet and Hendersonville tied at the top at 3-0, Rossview at 2-1, Lebanon at 1-2 and Wilson Central/Station Camp both at 0-3.

Mt. Juliet is the team to beat in the region. They are currently sitting at 7-0 and Sonny Moore has them ranked 9th in 6A. They have McGavock and Station Camp the next two games so they will roll into the final game to determine the region championship against Hendersonville with a 9-0 record. Mt. Juliet will finish either 1st or 2nd in the region depending on that final game.

Hendersonville is pretty much right where they want to be despite a loss a few weeks ago to Franklin. They will go into these final two region games against Rossview and Mt. Juliet fighting for either the 1st or 2nd seed in the region.  A win against Rossview will set up a region championship game against Mt. Juliet. A loss against Rossview and they may end up going on the road to Oakland come playoff time. I believe if they lose to Rossview and Lebanon beats Rossview then Hendersonville would end up 4th in the region due to a 3-way tiebreaker scenario.

Rossview is currently 3rd in the region but I expect that to change as their schedule gets harder at the end. They had losses to Clarksville and Clarksville NE but the 42-7 loss to NE got turned into a forfeit. They lost 48-10 to Mt. Juliet. The other 4 wins are over teams with a combined 7 wins. They have Stratford coming up they should win that game. But then Hendersonville and Lebanon to close out. They will likely finish 6-4 (5-5 in reality). Right now seeding anywhere 2-4 is still in play. But I expect them to finish 4th.

Lebanon is sitting at 5-2 and in good shape to close out the season 8-2 which would be their best season in some time. They have Coffee County, Wilson Central and Rossview all at home to close out the season. Anywhere from 2nd to missing the playoffs in the region is still in play. If they win out and Rossview beats Hendersonville they could get the 2nd seed in the region. If they lose to Wilson Central they could possibly miss the playoffs.

Wilson Central surely didn't expect to be 1-6 at this point in the season. But they still have a outside shot at the playoffs with Lebanon and Station Camp remaining in the region.  But the best they can finish is 4th in the region which means traveling to Oakland in the 1st round.

Station Camp has been eliminated from the playoffs. They didn't even show up against Lebanon and fans were letting the coaching staff know about it the entire game. They have Beech and Mt. Juliet the next two games. So things might be worse before they go into a final game against Wilson Central. 

These teams go up against Region 3 in the playoffs and that region is pretty much looking set.

1. Oakland

2. Blackman

3. Riverdale

4. Cookeville/Siegel

So I'm thinking we will end up seeing

 

Mt. Juliet vs Cookeville/Siegel

Blackman vs Lebanon

 

Oakland vs Rossview

Hendersonville vs Riverdale

[CommandoPride1478]

Great post and probably spot on.  

[steelcityroller]

I can't wait to see some of these games come playoff time. If I falls as I expect I plan on going to Lebanon @ Blackman in the 1st round and Blackman @ Mt. Juliet in the 2nd round.

[MJGOLDENBEARS]

19 minutes ago, steelcityroller said:

I can't wait to see some of these games come playoff time. If I falls as I expect I plan on going to Lebanon @ Blackman in the 1st round and Blackman @ Mt. Juliet in the 2nd round.

So hypothetically speaking, lets say Mount Juliet beats Hendersonville handily...more than Blackman was able to,,, are we still the Buffalo Bills going against the Patriots? I know you love throwing common opponents in the mix for your evaluations. I would love to hear your anti Mj response ,also I would love to schedule TC to at least a jamboree next season. That would be fun.

Edited October 4, 2018 by MJGOLDENBEARS

[steelcityroller]

1 minute ago, MJGOLDENBEARS said:

So lets say Mount Juliet beats Hendersonville handily...more than Blackman was able to,,, are we still the Buffalo Bills going against the Patriots? I know you love throwing common opponents in the mix for your evaluations. I would love to hear your anti Mj response ,also I would love to schedule TC to at least a jamboree next season. That would be fun.

I do like to use common opponents. But I like to have more than one game for the sake of sample size. For example Lebanon has played both Trousdale County and Mt. Juliet. They beat Trousdale County by 4 and lost to Mt. Juliet by 4. So does that mean 6A Mt. Juliet is only a touchdown better than 2A Trousdale county? I don't know. 

I've seen Blackman play 3 times this year (Florence (Alabama), Coffee County and Oakland).

But if you do handle Hendersonville by a considerable margin (3-4 touchdowns) then yeah I would say you may be in there against Blackman. I think Blackman is susceptible this year. They have the players without a doubt but don't seem to be clicking as some other top teams I've seen. I'm not saying they are bad by any stretch. Just that they could be even better than what they are based on talent.

I will toss the idea out there though not that I have any pull. I do like seeing TC play the bigger teams though as they have played Station Camp, Beech, Gallatin, Lebanon etc. over the years.

 

 

[CommandoPride1478]

13 hours ago, steelcityroller said:

I can't wait to see some of these games come playoff time. If I falls as I expect I plan on going to Lebanon @ Blackman in the 1st round and Blackman @ Mt. Juliet in the 2nd round.

Hopefully you get to come watch Blackman at HHS week 2  

[steelcityroller]

10 hours ago, CommandoPride1478 said:

Hopefully you get to come watch Blackman at HHS week 2  

That will work too.

[MJGOLDENBEARS]

Mount Juliet up 38-2 over McGavock, start of the 4th.

[MrFootball71]

On 9/30/2018 at 8:12 PM, CommandoPride1478 said:

Great post and probably spot on.  

Post makes sense