Going by last year's times won't always get one very far in the prediction business as far as cross country goes. I present for evidence, Your Honor, exhibit number one: McMinn 2002. That team had a returner at number fifteen from the previous year, and well, it's embarrassing to say this, but no one gave them a snowball's chance in South Alabama. Sure, they had five of their top six back... In any case, McMinn returns five of their top six and had a finisher at seventeenth place last year.
As far as Brainerd goes, we raced them in track, and their distance squad is virtually non-existent. If they have found some freshmen, then they're still a few years away. They need to face miles of trials, and trials of miles to be a contender in my book.
This is nothing but a guessing game at this point, but one thing is certain. It's going to be a fast year, and many teams will be the best they have EVER been. If a team is going to compete, they better have five below and close to 16 flat at state if they want to just be in the hunt.
I guess we'll just have to wait a few weeks and see what kind of times people open with. It won't be where they end up by season's end, but we'll see who's close.