There is no doubt that Clabo is a good runner. Yet to assume that he would "rape the competition as the Elizabthton kid did last year" is to err. A 9:50 3200m is respectable, but to extrapolate that time to a cross-country race is silly; every race is its own creature, and you just have to figure out how to kill the beast.
Perkins is a good runner, but I'll bet that Johnson has him beat on Saturday. Musick and Bell are pretty solid as well.
But then again so are Patterson and Cowan.
Coniglio seems like he should be able to put together a solid race.
If you want to look purely at numbers and run some calculations to make your predictions, fine. But there are numerous lurking variables that must be taken into account; everything that these runners have done since the end of track to now has some effect, even if it is infinitesimally small. And of course there is the possibility that some overriding factor will present itself at some point during the race on Saturday.
If Lipscomb is going to RTFOOI Saturday and not wonder WTFS their SFNG-pole, they have a decent shot at winning.
That said, the fortitude displayed by a team or an individual is only impregnable to the extent that others have not yet managed to breach it. Fortitude is a defensive procedure, and a single lapse can spell disaster. No runner will run three miles without a single lapse, but some will obviously have more than others.
I'll root to the end for the guys I know have maximized the ratio of mental to physical, the guys I know can come out of the woordwork to do something spectacular, the guys who know that Saturday is their day, the guys who know that it's going to take every Joule of energy they can muster, the guys who are willing to give that last Joule, the guys who have thrived in the face of Rebel Assault, the guys who run not just for themselves but for those who have come before and those who will come after.