How would you seed these four teams?

[davidlimbaugh]

Actually, Alabama's gone to regions now--which is basically pooling two old-school areas and taking four from each. And they do use overall record, but only as a very deep tiebreaker.

 

Anyway, I've been looking over the points structures used in some other states. West Virginia has a pretty simple one with a huge emphasis on the size of the opponent--beating Farragut would get you more credit than beating Alcoa, and Antioch more than South Pittsburg.

 

Perhaps the "classic" point system is Ohio's, the Harbin system, which is a combination of your record and the records of the teams you beat. A simpler variant on the same concept is the Heal system, used in Maine. Although phrased differently, the NCAA's RPI is an example of such a system too.

But these inspire a further thought: why not define the strength of schedule by the ratings themselves? (Yes, it's circular, but it actually works--feed in a guess, take the output, feed that back in, and repeat until the numbers stop moving.)

 

I've found two fairly high-quality variants on that concept: recursive Heal points and KRACH (for the latter, one would use the old "fictitious team" variant to deal with an issue involving unbeaten or winless teams). The "top ten" under RHEAL are Ensworth, Oakland, Blackman, Brentwood, Riverdale, Brentwood Academy, MBA, Whites Creek, Beech, Mount Juliet, and Father Ryan; the highest East Tennessee team is Ooltewah at #23 and the top Weststate team (not counting Henry County) is MUS at #34. I think this system suffers from a Vanderbilt effect (a win can hurt your rating).

The KRACH system gives a ranking of Alcoa, Ensworth, MUS, Red Bank, Blackman, Maryville, CAK, Oakland, Milan, and Polk County, which seems more sensible (MUS might even be higher if their two Mississippi wins were taken into account).

 

Good Stuff! Here is a link to Ohio's you mentioned: http://www.ohsaa.org/sports/ft/boys/TrmtInfo.htm

[davidlimbaugh]

Just out of curiosity I looked at the 8 teams in Pod 1 of 6AAA

 

After looking at who played who, classification and record wise with a little formula I am working on to see how fair this system really is, I came up with the teams in this order:

 

1) D4-Maryville (9-1) Only loss was to 10-0 3A Power Alcoa. 4-0 against teams in 6A playoffs

2) D4-Farragut (8-2) Only losses are to Maryville and 6A playoff team Riverdale Wins over 3 other 6A playoff teams.

3) D2-Sevier Co (10-0) Only played one team with a winning record (5A Morristown West)

4) D5-McMinn Co (8-2) lost to D2 McCallie (4-6) and Maryville. wins over playoff teams Ooltewah (9-1) and Cookeville (7-3)

5) D5-Ooltewah (9-1) wins over 2 3A teams and a 4A team and a (1-9) 5A team

6) D4-Bearden (8-2) lost to Maryville and Farragut but those were the only teams they played with a winning record.

7) D3 Oak Ridge (7-3) three losses all to playoff teams (Farragut, Maryville, Clinton) (see a pattern and why Maryville and Farragut are 1 and 2?)

8) D1-Dobyns Bennett (5-5) all five losses to playoff teams with a combined record of (45-4) win over (8-2) 5A Sullivan South.

 

And because McMinn Co and Ooltewah are in same district I made this bracket:

 

5-3) D5-Ooltewah at D2-Sevier Co

7-2) D3-Oak Ridge at D4-Farragut

6-4) D4-Bearden at D5-McMinn Co

8-1) D1-Dobyns Bennett at D4-Maryville

 

What do ya think?

[silverpie]

For the same pod, I get the following seedings:

1. Maryville (4)

2. Ooltewah (5)

3. Sevier County (2)

4. McMinn County (5)

5. Farragut (4)

6. Bearden (4)

7. Dobyns-Bennett (1)

8. Oak Ridge (3)

I think you may have undercredited Ooltewah's wins over Franklin (8-2 against a solid schedule) and Tyner (second in a district with six 4A teams).

So,

Oak Ridge @ Maryville

Farragut @ McMinn County

Bearden @ Sevier County

Dobyns-Bennett @ Ooltewah

[davidlimbaugh]

For the same pod, I get the following seedings:

1. Maryville (4)

2. Ooltewah (5)

3. Sevier County (2)

4. McMinn County (5)

5. Farragut (4)

6. Bearden (4)

7. Dobyns-Bennett (1)

8. Oak Ridge (3)

I think you may have undercredited Ooltewah's wins over Franklin (8-2 against a solid schedule) and Tyner (second in a district with six 4A teams).

So,

Oak Ridge @ Maryville

Farragut @ McMinn County

Bearden @ Sevier County

Dobyns-Bennett @ Ooltewah

 

I guess Ooltewah loses points with me because that is a (6-4) 3A Tyner team and they also have another 3A win over a (7-3) Austin East and a win over a (6-4) 4A Maplewood. Franklin is the only 6A team with a winning record they actually beat. Tyner really had only two 'quality' wins - East Ridge and Brainerd. Don't you think Farragut's wins over 6A playoff teams D.B. (5-5), Oak Ridge (7-3) and Bearden (8-2) are more impressive? DB's five losses are to teams that combined to lose 4 games. Oak Ridge's 3 losses are to teams that combined to lose 3 games. And Oak Ridge beat a 5A (7-3) playoff team, Anderson County.

[BDURHAM]

No one would schedule Ooltewah; thus Maplewood, Franklin, Austin East, and Tyner.

 

No one out of region schedules Maplewood. They are tough.

My memory could be wrong, but I think Franklin was #1 or close

earlier in the season. They are tough.

Who wants to schedule Austin East? No one out of region.

Tyner plays everybody, public and private because no one

wants to play them.

 

Outside of Murfreesboro teams, Ooltewah probably had the toughest

schedule in the state.

[davidlimbaugh]

No one would schedule Ooltewah; thus Maplewood, Franklin, Austin East, and Tyner.

 

No one out of region schedules Maplewood. They are tough.

My memory could be wrong, but I think Franklin was #1 or close

earlier in the season. They are tough.

Who wants to schedule Austin East? No one out of region.

Tyner plays everybody, public and private because no one

wants to play them.

 

Outside of Murfreesboro teams, Ooltewah probably had the toughest

schedule in the state.

 

Compare:

 

Dobyns Bennett (5-5)

 

Farragut 8-26 (6A) (8-2)

Clinton 20-28 (5A) (9-0)

Sullivan Central 41-7 (5A) (1-9)

Sevier Co. 13-30 (6A) (10-0)

Daniel Boone 14-17 (5A) (8-2)

Sullivan South 42-28 (5A) (8-2)

Tennessee 12-27 (5A) (10-0)

David Crockett 17-6 (5A) (4-6)

Science Hill 24-10 (6A) (4-6)

Volunteer 37-0 (5A) (0-10)

 

Farragut (8-2)

 

Dobyns-Bennett 26-8 (6A) (5-5)

Oak Ridge 32-7 (6A) (7-3)

Knox Catholic 20-12 (5A) (5-5)

Knox West 18-11 (5A) (4-6)

Riverdale 17-20 (6A) (8-2)

Heritage 50-7 (6A) (4-6)

Bearden 42-17 (6A) (8-2)

Maryville 32-35 (6A) (9-1)

Lenoir City 42-7 (5A) (2-8)

William Blount 45-0 (6A) (3-7)

 

McMinn Co (8-2)

 

McMinn Central 14-10 (3A) (7-3)

McCallie 20-30 (D2) (4-6)

Maryville 6-49 (6A) (9-1)

Cleveland 36-13 (5A) (3-7)

Cookeville 28-26 (6A) (7-3)

Rhea Co. 28-6 (6A) (2-8)

Bradley Central 23-14 (6A) (5-5)

Soddy Daisy 40-15 (6A) (5-5)

Walker Valley 49-14 (5A) (1-9)

Ooltewah 20-17 (6A) (9-1)

 

Ooltewah (9-1)

 

Tyner Academy 36-0 (3A) (6-4)

Austin-East 7-6 (3A) (7-3)

Soddy Daisy 21-14 (6A) (5-5)

Franklin 19-3 (6A) (8-2)

Maplewood 30-24 (4A) (6-4)

Walker Valley 56-0 (5A) (1-9)

Rhea Co. 30-14 (6A) (2-8)

Bradley Central 31-7 (6A) (5-5)

Cleveland 28-7 (5A) (3-7)

McMinn Co. 17-20 (6A) (8-2)

 

 

McMinn Co played Maryville and Cookeville - 6A Playoff teams - and beat Ooltewah - I think Ooltewah had the fourth toughest schedule of these four? Much less toughest in the state. But your mileage my vary

[silverpie]

Looking at my strength-of-schedule ratings:

McMinn County #20

Farragut #25

Ooltewah #28

Dobyns-Bennett #49

[davidlimbaugh]

Looking at my strength-of-schedule ratings:

McMinn County #20

Farragut #25

Ooltewah #28

Dobyns-Bennett #49

 

DB played 6 (5A or 6A) teams with 8 or more wins. two more teams with 4 wins. Curious to see the code behind a program that puts them at 49 - see what I mean?

[silverpie]

I'll double-check those numbers when I get a chance. But here are some findings of actual relevance: if you use the KRACH ratings just to decide the wildcards, then two bids change in each AAA subclass. In 6A, Rossview and McGavock get replaced by Smyrna and Siegel; in 5A, Bartlett and Springfield are displaced by West and Tullahoma. Taking it further, and using them to determine all places, three more shift in each--in 6A, Kirby, Franklin County, and Coffee County become Soddy-Daisy, Ravenwood, and Bradley Central; in 5A, Powell, Seymour, and White County become Bartlett and Springfield again, along with Station Camp.

[silverpie]

Ah, found the issue. I was charging Clinton (who played KDB) with a loss for the Halls game (with Halls keeping its loss too), which isn't in keeping with the spirit of the "vacate" rule. With that fixed, Ooltewah still shows a harder schedule than Dobyns-Bennett, but much closer (27th to 28th, with Farragut 17th and McMinn 19th).

 

Then again, (getting philosophical here) a schedule's difficulty isn't the same for all teams facing it. A schedule of the five best and five worst teams in the state will be a much more challenging schedule for a good team than a schedule of ten average teams. But from the view of a bad team, ten medium opponents is the harder schedule. (And that's before getting into travel issues and/or home-field advantage....)

[davidlimbaugh]

Ah, found the issue. I was charging Clinton (who played KDB) with a loss for the Halls game (with Halls keeping its loss too), which isn't in keeping with the spirit of the "vacate" rule. With that fixed, Ooltewah still shows a harder schedule than Dobyns-Bennett, but much closer (27th to 28th, with Farragut 17th and McMinn 19th).

 

Then again, (getting philosophical here) a schedule's difficulty isn't the same for all teams facing it. A schedule of the five best and five worst teams in the state will be a much more challenging schedule for a good team than a schedule of ten average teams. But from the view of a bad team, ten medium opponents is the harder schedule. (And that's before getting into travel issues and/or home-field advantage....)

 

Ah! So I think we agree that Ooltewah didn't play one of the toughest schedules in the state?

 

I guess I am trying to figure out a way to keep subjective thought out of the equation. And not having some magic formula with secret herbs and spices.

[silverpie]

It may seem "magical," but the formula I'm using is completely open-source. I'll put my implementation up on googledocs or iwork.com in a day or two.