DII-AA Rankings: Week 7

[WesVLT]

Can you believe we're already two-thirds of the way done with the regular season? It's simultaneously infuriating and invigorating that we're this close to playoff time. With that in mind, here's a look at how things stack up with just a few games left.

 

1) Ensworth

The Tigers cemented their No. 1 status with a 14-point win over MBA. Their power game continues to outmuscle opponents, who often know what's coming and still struggle to stop it. Ensworth is beatable, but I'm not sure they'll be beaten this year.

 

2) MBA

The Big Red did enough against Ensworth to justify their runner-up position. If the Big Red hadn't committed five turnovers, they might have had a shot against the Tigers. Freshman running back Ty Chandler has been a huge bright spot and is a future star.

 

3) Baylor

The Red Raiders rolled over rival McCallie and made a statement in the process. The 38-14 victory -- a game in which Baylor did not punt and only turned the ball over once -- cemented the Raiders in the top portion of the league. We'll find out if Baylor is great or just good when they host 6A power Oakland Friday.

 

4) Brentwood Academy

Sure, everyone is dominating JPII these days. But the way the Eagles dismantled the Knights (57 points in the first half), combined with the preceding week's 45-0 shutout of Science Hill, suggest they're starting to click. If BA can keep its rhythm going against McCallie, who has not beaten the Eagles in seven tries, it will generate valuable confidence heading into the final games against Baylor and Ensworth.

 

5) Memphis University School

MUS keeps climbing. A 45-9 shellacking of archrival Christian Brothers puts the Owls in the drivers seat in the West. After struggling early, MUS has won four straight games and will be heavily favored in its final three contests against St. Benedict, Craigmont and Briarcrest.

 

6) Father Ryan

The Irish easily handled Bye on Friday, shutting them out in a game that went completely under the radar. The Irish haven't beaten MBA since the 1997 state title game, a string of 19 losses against their historic rival. A win against the Big Red, JPII, McCallie or Baylor will ensure Ryan's first .500 season since 2009. Ryan falls because of impressive performances by BA and MUS.

 

7) McCallie

The Blue Tornado have played one of the state's toughest schedules and it's starting to take its toll. The 38-14 loss to Baylor must be very deflating, but there's no time to mourn. A trip to Brentwood Academy looms for Ralph Potter's team, which began the season with three straight wins but has lost four straight against teams with a combined record of 22-3.

 

8) Christian Brothers

The Purple Wave continue to search for an identity under their new coaching staff. A 36-point loss to MUS -- the Brothers' fifth in six meetings with the Owls -- put CBHS below .500 with three games left. Since those games are against Briarcrest, Carver and St. Benedict, we shouldn't expect to learn much more about CBHS before playoff time.

 

9) Briarcrest

The Saints beat St. Benedict 23-12 and look like the third best team in the West. It was the first win in four contests for the Blindsiders. Friday's battle with Christian Brothers could elevate the Saints to the No. 2 seed in the region.

 

10) Pope John Paul

The Knights have shown promise in non-league games but are hopelessly outmatched in DII play. Jerry Joslin's team allowed 57 first-half points to Brentwood Academy and has surrendered 53 points per game in league action. Friday provides a valuable chance for JPII to get some rest before a tilt the following Thursday with rival Father Ryan.

 

11) St. Benedict

The Eagles will struggle to climb out of the DII West cellar after the 11-point loss to Briarcrest. Games against Memphis Central and Cordova provide chances for confidence-building wins, but tilts against MUS and Christian Brothers aren't as promising.

 

Thoughts? Amendments? Analysis? How will these rankings look next week?

Edited October 8, 2013 by WesVLT

[RedRobin1]

Thanks as always for posting - not much to read on the D2 boards these days. I think you are pretty close, but I would put MUS 4th, Ryan 5th and BA 6th (for a lot of reasons, that is hard to say!). Ryan has earned it's position above BA for now since it is 1-1 in the league (compared to 1-2 for BA) and, ahem, actually beat BA head-to-head. I would not be surprised if BA climbs much much higher by the end of the year, but as of right now, a win over JP2 and some pretender from NE Tennessee does not elevate them over the team that beat them.

[WesVLT]

By that logic, MUS's recent success should be disregarded and they should be behind BA in your rankings, since the Eagles mercy-ruled the Owls. As your rankings indicate, head-to-head isn't always so simple.

 

I enjoy the debate and am glad you posted. The playoffs may render discussions like these irrelevant, but they sure are fun.

[RedRobin1]

I am aware that BA beat MUS in Week 0 at Vandy, but since we are ranking the teams now, as opposed to then, I think it relevant how they have performed since their respective losses. This is especially so since the results of first games can often be deceiving.

Since losing to BA, MUS is 5-1 (with the last 4 wins in a row), including quality wins over perennial Mississippi power South Panola and rival CBHS with its only other loss being to an out-of-state.

Since losing to Ryan in Week 2, BA is 2-2, with losses to 2 good teams and wins over two not-very-good teams.

Since beating BA, Ryan is 2-1, with a loss to your number 1 team and wins over two not-very-good teams.

In my mind, MUS has clearly come a long way since losing to BA in week 0, and deserves props based on that apparent improvement. Both BA and Ryan could have won the games they have won since Week 2 with their eyes closed, so I am not sure that any of those victories should move either of them up the scale since Week 2. In my mind, the jury is still out on both BA and Ryan since their game, which is why I think you gotta give it to Ryan based on the head-to-head.

As I said earlier, by the time it is all said and done, I think BA will be right back up in their usual place among the elite in D2 (and the state). My crystal ball sees MBA/MUS and Ensworth/BA in the state semi-finals this year.

Edited October 8, 2013 by RedRobin1

[WesVLT]

I agree with your assessment of the eventual final four, with the caveat that Baylor is capable of sneaking up on anyone except Ensworth.

 

I am almost always inclined to use head-to-head matchups as a primary criterion for ranking teams. That said, I am more inclined to view a 24-20 last-second victory as an anomaly than a 36-7 dominant performance, even if the latter was early in the season. Thus, I give more weight to BA's win over MUS than I do Ryan's win over the Eagles. Hence my ranking -- BA 4th, MUS 5th, Ryan 6th.

 

While my partiality toward BA does not tempt me to rank the Eagles higher than they deserve, the fact that I've seen every game the Eagles have played does create an unfair situation. I have seen BA progress before my eyes -- it's a young team that is learning from its lumps and improving its execution, even if the opponents have been grossly inferior. I have not had the same opportunity to watch MUS progress, although I ranked them ahead of Father Ryan because of the Owls' strong recent performance.

 

I do know that MUS was so bad in the season-opener that only significant progress would put them back in the top third of the league. Another small bit of evidence: In Week Three, the Owls beat Liberty 30-6 -- the same Liberty team on whom BA hung 45 points in the first half.

 

I have seen three of Ryan's games -- two on film, one in person. The Irish are gritty and improved, but I'm not sure they would beat BA again given a second chance. They have a great scheme but do not possess the athleticism of MUS or the Eagles, and as those teams' young talent has gained experience, I believe they've passed Ryan.

 

It's all very subjective and you make some great points.

 

I am aware that BA beat MUS in Week 0 at Vandy, but since we are ranking the teams now, as opposed to then, I think it relevant how they have performed since their respective losses. This is especially so since the results of first games can often be deceiving.
Since losing to BA, MUS is 5-1 (with the last 4 wins in a row), including quality wins over perennial Mississippi power South Panola and rival CBHS with its only other loss being to an out-of-state.
Since losing to Ryan in Week 2, BA is 2-2, with losses to 2 good teams and wins over two not-very-good teams.
Since beating BA, Ryan is 2-1, with a loss to your number 1 team and wins over two not-very-good teams.
In my mind, MUS has clearly come a long way since losing to BA in week 0, and deserves props based on that apparent improvement. Both BA and Ryan could have won the games they have won since Week 2 with their eyes closed, so I am not sure that any of those victories should move either of them up the scale since Week 2. In my mind, the jury is still out on both BA and Ryan since their game, which is why I think you gotta give it to Ryan based on the head-to-head.
As I said earlier, by the time it is all said and done, I think BA will be right back up in their usual place among the elite in D2 (and the state). My crystal ball sees MBA/MUS and Ensworth/BA in the state semi-finals this year.

 

[Custer]

2 things that never make any sense to me these days:

 

1) All teams make playoffs regardless of reg. season record

 

2) Ensworth

[RedRobin1]

2 things that never make any sense to me these days:

 

1) All teams make playoffs regardless of reg. season record

 

2) Ensworth

What doesn't make sense about Ensworth?

[VOL]

Come on Wes get your facts straight. Baylor did punt and also had 2 turnovers. This game was 17-14 going into the 4th qtr. McCallie after playing Siegel,Bowling Green, and Ensworth  the last 3 weeks looked to be a tired football team Friday night. Baylor after playing JP2 and having an open date looked very fresh and were a well prepared football team. I give Baylor credit for beating a team that had more talent than them. McCallie should move their home game next year back to campus on Dodds Ave.....Baylor had a great home field advantage Friday night. This is like Tennessee playing Georgia in Athens and then moving their home game to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta may not be a good comparison ....come on McCallie move the game back to campus were your players want to play the game. One last thing Wes...what will an 11 team bracket look like.

[baylorbigdog1976]

For what it's worth latest SM computer rankings ... Father Ryan is right behind mccallie

 

 

ENSWORTH A2 6 0 0 111.70 155.36

BRENTWOOD ACADEMY A2 4 3 0 128.26 147.51

MONTGOMERY BELL ACADEMY (MBA) A2 6 1 0 131.73 145.90

MEMPHIS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL (MUS) A2 5 2 0 121.93 143.71

BAYLOR A2 5 1 0 117.75 142.25

McCALLIE A2 3 4 0 129.09 132.18

[WesVLT]

Come on Wes get your facts straight. Baylor did punt and also had 2 turnovers. This game was 17-14 going into the 4th qtr. McCallie after playing Siegel,Bowling Green, and Ensworth the last 3 weeks looked to be a tired football team Friday night. Baylor after playing JP2 and having an open date looked very fresh and were a well prepared football team. I give Baylor credit for beating a team that had more talent than them. McCallie should move their home game next year back to campus on Dodds Ave.....Baylor had a great home field advantage Friday night. This is like Tennessee playing Georgia in Athens and then moving their home game to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta may not be a good comparison ....come on McCallie move the game back to campus were your players want to play the game. One last thing Wes...what will an 11 team bracket look like.

Just quoting McCallie's statistical page. If I'm wrong, it's because they're wrong.

 

Go to page seven of the TSSAA football handbook to see what this year's bracket will look like.

Edited October 9, 2013 by WesVLT

[owlbooster]

I agree with your assessment of the eventual final four, with the caveat that Baylor is capable of sneaking up on anyone except Ensworth.

 

I am almost always inclined to use head-to-head matchups as a primary criterion for ranking teams. That said, I am more inclined to view a 24-20 last-second victory as an anomaly than a 36-7 dominant performance, even if the latter was early in the season. Thus, I give more weight to BA's win over MUS than I do Ryan's win over the Eagles. Hence my ranking -- BA 4th, MUS 5th, Ryan 6th.

 

While my partiality toward BA does not tempt me to rank the Eagles higher than they deserve, the fact that I've seen every game the Eagles have played does create an unfair situation. I have seen BA progress before my eyes -- it's a young team that is learning from its lumps and improving its execution, even if the opponents have been grossly inferior. I have not had the same opportunity to watch MUS progress, although I ranked them ahead of Father Ryan because of the Owls' strong recent performance.

 

I do know that MUS was so bad in the season-opener that only significant progress would put them back in the top third of the league. Another small bit of evidence: In Week Three, the Owls beat Liberty 30-6 -- the same Liberty team on whom BA hung 45 points in the first half.

 

I have seen three of Ryan's games -- two on film, one in person. The Irish are gritty and improved, but I'm not sure they would beat BA again given a second chance. They have a great scheme but do not possess the athleticism of MUS or the Eagles, and as those teams' young talent has gained experience, I believe they've passed Ryan.

 

It's all very subjective and you make some great points.

Comparative scores against common opponents are a poor way of comparing teams.  To imply that BA should be ranked ahead of MUS because they beat Liberty Tech by a bigger margin is stupid. 

 

Red Robin makes a great deal of sense - and fairness.  I think beating S Panola 27-9 and Christian Brothers 45-6 constitutes "significant progress."  The MUS team that dismantled the then #1 ranked team in MS is not the same team that got embarrassed in Nashville 7 weeks ago.  The AR team that beat them by a TD a month ago in game #3 (an "away" game MUS should have won) is #10 overall in AR, #2 in 5A.

 

As RR said, MUS deserves its "props" - for at least one week.  If BA beats McCallie, I have no problem with putting them at #4 ahead of MUS next week.   The Owls can and probably will put the "running clock" on its last 3 regular season opponents so those games will mean nothing.

[WesVLT]

Comparative scores against common opponents are a poor way of comparing teams.  To imply that BA should be ranked ahead of MUS because they beat Liberty Tech by a bigger margin is stupid. 

 

Red Robin makes a great deal of sense - and fairness.  I think beating S Panola 27-9 and Christian Brothers 45-6 constitutes "significant progress."  The MUS team that dismantled the then #1 ranked team in MS is not the same team that got embarrassed in Nashville 7 weeks ago.  The AR team that beat them by a TD a month ago in game #3 (an "away" game MUS should have won) is #10 overall in AR, #2 in 5A.

 

As RR said, MUS deserves its "props" - for at least one week.  If BA beats McCallie, I have no problem with putting them at #4 ahead of MUS next week.   The Owls can and probably will put the "running clock" on its last 3 regular season opponents so those games will mean nothing.

 

I called the Liberty comparison a "small bit of evidence," not a primary reason for my decision to rank BA ahead of MUS. Comparative scores can indeed be sketchy, but when there is a big difference between two teams' performances against the same squad, one can use that difference to shed a little light on things. BA scored 45 points in the first half against Liberty and played its JV team in the final quarters. MUS led 14-6 at the break and labored to its win. Again, other factors were more important in my ranking, but it is not "stupid" to use all information at one's disposal, as long as each factor is given appropriate weight.

 

As I said in my previous post, I admit that it is unfair that I haven't seen MUS play since Week Zero and therefore do not have the body of evidence I'd like to have in judging the Owls. Their recent resurgence has gotten them into the top five in the rankings. Their blowout loss to BA justifiably keeps them behind the Eagles.

Edited October 9, 2013 by WesVLT