Statisical Analysis - AAA State and Team Rankings

[ObserverW]

I’ve taken a look at last year’s state results to get a statistical look at what is returning this year and who might be the teams to beat.

 

I only list teams from the Top 20 (if a team is not listed they had zero points).  Each team has 3 numbers:  First is the number of state place winners and wrestlers are listed with their place.  Second is the number of state qualifiers who were one or two rounds from placing, on average wrestlers had to win at least 4 matches to get to this point, these wrestlers are listed with “2 rounds†beside their name.  Third is the number of returning state qualifiers who won at least 2 matches but did not make it to the 5th consolation round with would put them in category 2, these wrestlers are listed with no notations.

 

Teams are listed and ranked by total number of points in these three categories, when a tie exists weighing goes by order of criteria.  This is a similar system used by some of the polls for NCAA.  These numbers obviously do not include incoming freshman who can make a difference and should allow for some lively discussion.

 

 

Bradley 4-1-2

Hicks -1

McElhaney-1

Fuller-1

Matthews-3
Headrick-2 rounds

Ekins

Gibson

 

Cleveland 4-0-2

Pond-4

Whiteside-3

Landers-2

Hicks-5
Matthews

Sweeney

 

Tennessee 4-0-1

Nelson-3

Pendley-2

Henley-5

Spangler-4

Pendley

 

 

Wilson 3*-2-0

Smith-5

Kramer-4

Pergande, A -2 rounds

Noga-2 rounds

*Sesnan-2 (’15*)

 

Beech 3-1-1

Palmer-2

Rippy-1

Smith-6

Maddox-2 rounds

Garrett

 

Halls 3-0-2
Justice-3

Brown-4

McMahon-4

Neilson

Harp

 

Indy 2-2-1

Ingram-4

Demollo-4

Schooberl-2 rounds

Schnedler-2 rounds

Fowler

 

Arlington 1-2-2

Cannon-6

Phillips-2 rounds

Moore-2 rounds

Morgan

Metcalf

 

Science Hill 1-1-2

James-6

Diehl-2 rounds

Story

Pridemore

 

Blackman 1-1-1

Sells-1

Brown-2 rounds

Fowler

 

Siegel 0-2-1

Bradford-2 rounds

Salter-2 rounds

Moultry

 

Gibbs 2-0-0

Adzima-6

Fortner-3

William Blount 2-0-0

Martin-2

Satterfield-6

 

Rossview 1-0-1

Gonzalez-5

Arias-lynch

 

Ooltewah 1-0-0

Bednarski-3

[werazzlin]

I’ve taken a look at last year’s state results to get a statistical look at what is returning this year and who might be the teams to beat.

 

I only list teams from the Top 20 (if a team is not listed they had zero points).  Each team has 3 numbers:  First is the number of state place winners and wrestlers are listed with their place.  Second is the number of state qualifiers who were one or two rounds from placing, on average wrestlers had to win at least 4 matches to get to this point, these wrestlers are listed with “2 rounds†beside their name.  Third is the number of returning state qualifiers who won at least 2 matches but did not make it to the 5th consolation round with would put them in category 2, these wrestlers are listed with no notations.

 

Teams are listed and ranked by total number of points in these three categories, when a tie exists weighing goes by order of criteria.  This is a similar system used by some of the polls for NCAA.  These numbers obviously do not include incoming freshman who can make a difference and should allow for some lively discussion.

 

 

Bradley 4-1-2

Hicks -1

McElhaney-1

Fuller-1

Matthews-3

Headrick-2 rounds

Ekins

Gibson

 

Cleveland 4-0-2

Pond-4

Whiteside-3

Landers-2

Hicks-5

Matthews

Sweeney

 

Tennessee 4-0-1

Nelson-3

Pendley-2

Henley-5

Spangler-4

Pendley

 

 

Wilson 3*-2-0

Smith-5

Kramer-4

Pergande, A -2 rounds

Noga-2 rounds

*Sesnan-2 (’15*)

 

Beech 3-1-1

Palmer-2

Rippy-1

Smith-6

Maddox-2 rounds

Garrett

 

Halls 3-0-2

Justice-3

Brown-4

McMahon-4

Neilson

Harp

 

Indy 2-2-1

Ingram-4

Demollo-4

Schooberl-2 rounds

Schnedler-2 rounds

Fowler

 

Arlington 1-2-2

Cannon-6

Phillips-2 rounds

Moore-2 rounds

Morgan

Metcalf

 

Science Hill 1-1-2

James-6

Diehl-2 rounds

Story

Pridemore

 

Blackman 1-1-1

Sells-1

Brown-2 rounds

Fowler

 

Siegel 0-2-1

Bradford-2 rounds

Salter-2 rounds

Moultry

 

Gibbs 2-0-0

Adzima-6

Fortner-3

William Blount 2-0-0

Martin-2

Satterfield-6

 

Rossview 1-0-1

Gonzalez-5

Arias-lynch

 

Ooltewah 1-0-0

Bednarski-3

Not Bad! couple of Things. Gonzalez of Rossview Graduated,  the younger brother returns, but was not a state medalist. The Bradford kid is not at Siegel He is at Blackman.

Edited November 2, 2016 by werazzlin

[texas23]

very interesting way to begin to understand the possibilities for the upcoming season.  Besides not accounting for the freshman that could make a difference, it also should be noted that many of the non varsity wrestlers from last season will work themselves into the line up (because of last years graduation, weight gain, etc) and make an impact as well. 

 

Nice work.!

[TD2]

Here's my best stab at overall combined  rankings with graduates and returners.

 

1) Bradley

2) Wilson Central

3) Beech

4) Father Ryan

5) Cleveland

6) TN High

7)  Baylor

8) CBHS

9) Soddy

10) MBA

 

 

OW of all classes:  Nick Boykin (Riverdale) if he returns,  if not Eli King Father Ryan

[DaChampsAgain]

Here's my best stab at overall combined rankings with graduates and returners.

 

1) Bradley

2) Wilson Central

3) Beech

4) Father Ryan

5) Cleveland

6) TN High

7) Baylor

8) CBHS

9) Soddy

10) MBA

 

 

OW of all classes: Nick Boykin (Riverdale) if he returns, if not Eli King Father Ryan

FR at 4? Phew! If you're combining the Prives, it should be

1. FR

2. Bradley

3. Baylor

4. Wilson

5. Cleveland

[TD2]

I think Ryan lost 7 of their starters and 4 state champs.  They do have 3 studs coming back but allot of holes from what I see.   They had a couple of weights that they didn't even have a kid place in D11.  

 

Eli King beats anyone from Bradley, or the state, but Hicks beats Simpson and McElhiney beats Eason.  Those are the key matches If they're at the same weights.   BCHS wins 10 of the 14 matches. 

 

 WC wins 8 or the 14 matches and bonus points will come into play.  Will be close.

 

You changed my mind,  Ryan probably 3rd best in the state.  I think they would beat Beech if they wrestled  early in the year.

[ObserverW]

TD2 - you say FR has only 3 studs returning and therefore drop their ranking. What do u see in Wilson Central that has you so optimistic? 2-WC returning medalist, no finalists and 1 transfer who was a finalist 2 years ago at 106. Where do the other points come from?

[TD2]

One of the two all Americans in the state from super 32 and a solid team. WC always a blue collar team with allot of better than average guys that can score dual points. That's the reason they can't beat Bradley yet. They would have allot of state champs if they were in DII.

[Sommers]

Nice job guys... The Lebanon transfer adds points to WC and boosts the talent level in the practice room. Should be interesting to see the top 5. Not sure about Soddy but they should make some noise aling with Indy and science Hill ... and possibly a couple more Knoxville-Maryville area teams

 

Ryan but season's end may be tough for anyone to beat

[ObserverW]

Nice job guys... The Lebanon transfer adds points to WC and boosts the talent level in the practice room. Should be interesting to see the top 5. Not sure about Soddy but they should make some noise aling with Indy and science Hill ... and possibly a couple more Knoxville-Maryville area teams

 

Ryan but season's end may be tough for anyone to beat

 

Numbers don't lie that's why I like analyzing it this way. 

 

I know there is a tradition of success in the Maryville area and at Science Hill but tradition goes out the window many times due to graduation or the rise of other programs in the area.  One such program on the rise is Independence--not sure if they are top 5 just yet but they are definitely moving in that direction. 

 

Unfortunately you do not see Heritage on the list because they scored zero points in the analysis, they are currently in rebuilding mode, might have a place winner this year but will be a few years until you see them competing at the level we are used to. 

 

Science Hill, while steeped rich in tradition of wining, has been down for the past few years.  One place winner last year and only 2 others to come close.  They have picked up some transfer talent from Single A North Carolina but I don't see it as enough to put them in the conversation for a top 5, they could conceivably slip back into a top 10 position with a good tournament. 

 

I think Halls gets the vote for dark horse.  Never really any talk about them but they diligently go to work and get results.  They have a shot at 2 finalists this season and at least 5 placers.  Don't be surprised to see them knocking on the top 5 door.

 

I'm still not sold on Wilson Central.  I fail to see them making it over the top 5 hump.  I see 3 placers with one finalist with Kramer.  I'm not sold on Sesnan getting back to the finals.  The end to his season last year leaves a bad taste in my mouth and if hes up in weight at all, I see him as a top 6. 

 

Until someone completes the task though, The Bears are still the team to beat and my pick to repeat.