HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[donhaney]

You'll have to root for Wes Helms as a Milwaukee Brewer, he was traded for Ray King, a very impressive setup man.

 

Robert Fick, formerly of the Tigers, is the new everyday first baseman, signed to a one year deal.

[Opperman]

Posted by goldenboy:

They will probably win their division again this year, but only because it is weak.

 

I don't think it's that weak anymore. The Marlins aren't THAT bad, though I really don't like Jeff Loria. The Mets throw money at problems and hope something works, and it usually doesn't.

 

The reason I don't see the division as weak is the Philadelphia Phillies. They have a legitimately good team this year. You've got an outfield of Pat Burrell, Marlon Byrd, and Abreu. Stars at the corners, a good prospect in center. Infield of David Bell at third, Jimmy Rollins at short, Placido Polanco at second, and Jim Thome at first. That's the best first baseman in baseball, a good shortstop, and two above-average guys. Mike Lieberthal at catcher is good, but they need to get a good backup for him.

 

Their rotation looks to be Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, and one of Bud Smith, Josh Hancock, Brandon Duckworth, and Joe Roa. That's a good rotation...if Wolf and Padilla get better, like most pitchers their age do, and Myers builds on his cup of coffee last year, that could be as good as the Braves' rotation, and their lineup is better already.

 

Then you've got a bullpen of Terry Adams, Dave Coggin, Rheal Cormier, Hector Mercado, Jose Mesa, and Turk Wendell. And Dan Plesac if he doesn't retire. Again, that's a solid bullpen.

 

They need better depth in the infield and at catcher, but they've got a very solid team. VERY solid.

[goldenboy]

No they didn't trade Wes. That's it I'm through with the stupid Braves. Uhhhhh That makes me mad, now he's not going to be anything. The Phillies are teh only team in the division besides the Braves who are good. I'm glad they got the former Cardinal Bud Smith, who threw a no-hitter when he was a rookie, He's got a lot of potential. They had a very good offseason picking up Thome and Bell. They have average pitchers and Millwood will not help them. It doesn't really matter what they have though because the Braves should still win the division easily.

[Opperman]

Posted by goldenboy:

The Phillies are teh only team in the division besides the Braves who are good. I'm glad they got the former Cardinal Bud Smith, who threw a no-hitter when he was a rookie, He's got a lot of potential. They had a very good offseason picking up Thome and Bell. They have average pitchers and Millwood will not help them. It doesn't really matter what they have though because the Braves should still win the division easily.

 

Their pitchers are not average. Millwood is very good, Wolf and Padilla are good and young, which means improvement is likely. Brett Myers was good in his cup of coffee and projects to be a good pitcher. Hancock and Bud Smith have potential, but Bud needs to get about 4mph back on his fastball. His fastball was in the 89-91 range his rookie year. It was in the 85-87 range last year. He will stink if he can't get that velocity back. Even if he does get his velocity back, he's the 4 starter at absolute best.

 

I really don't see the Braves running away with the East this year. The Braves have been making really dumb moves for the last four or five years, and it's going to catch up to them soon. They haven't drafted anybody worth a crap in the first round since Chipper Jones, and that was more than a decade ago.

 

Giving away one of the top 15 pitchers in baseball because of money and then signing a C-turned-1B-turned-C-turned-RF who is a league-average hitter to be your 1B for a million dollars is generally not smart. You can do better than Fick for a million...or get a Fick-caliber player for less. After all, money is why they gave away Millwood.

[goldenboy]

Millwood is not one of the top 15 pitchers in any league. You can put any pitcher on the Braves and they will win the games he did and that's the same for Maddux and Glavine. Padilla could be a very good pitcher, Wold is average and will probably be in the bullpen before long. I've never even heard of Hancock or Myers but you are talking like their all-stars. The Braves will win the division so I don't know why we're argueing.

[Opperman]

Posted by goldenboy:

Millwood is not one of the top 15 pitchers in any league. You can put any pitcher on the Braves and they will win the games he did and that's the same for Maddux and Glavine. Padilla could be a very good pitcher, Wold is average and will probably be in the bullpen before long. I've never even heard of Hancock or Myers but you are talking like their all-stars. The Braves will win the division so I don't know why we're argueing.

 

1) Hancock and Myers are good pitching prospects. You haven't heard of them because they're prospects.

 

Before I start the rest of this, let me warn you I'll be using some statistics you probably won't be familiar with. It's because they're more complicated than the ones most people are familiar with, but they're more complicated because they are more accurate and better predictors.

 

2) Wolf is not average. His park-adjusted ERA has been between 15 and 20% better than the league average the last two years while pitching 375 innings, and he's only 26. Players peak at about 28, on average, which means he's probably still getting better.

 

3) Wolf is better than Padilla, but both are good. Padilla's peripheral numbers (K, BB, and HR rates) need to get better for him to live to his potential, but he's good. His biggest question mark is durability. 206 innings at age 24 is a lot, especially for someone who hasn't thrown that many before.

 

4) How would any pitcher win games because of pitchers that aren't pitching in that game? Only way I buy that is if it's Babe Ruth, where his bat's in the lineup for you. Millwood's peripheral numbers were a little better than Maddux and Glavine's last year. His park-adjusted ERA is 18% better than league average for his career, and that's #18 among all active players. He was 27% better than average last year, ranking ninth in the NL.

 

If you ARE going with games won, you might notice Maddux didn't win as many as Millwood. I think that means very little other than Millwood pitching a little more and getting a little more run support. Why didn't every Atlanta pitcher win 18 games last year?

 

Millwood has a good K rate, a solid HR rate, and a good walk rate. Those are the three things pitchers have been shown to control. And he's good in them. As Pedro Martinez said, "I can't control where they hit it."

[donhaney]

Opperman, as always, great points. But my underlying thought about the Phillies is that Larry Bowa doesn't have a clue about how to manage a pitching staff. And it shows in one of your points with Vincente Padilla.

 

He about threw the kid's arm off in the first two thirds of the season and it showed down the stretch. The only guy worse was Bruce Kim with the Cubs who avalanched Mark Prior.

 

As long as Bowa is calling the shots in Philly, I feel comfortable with the Braves chances although I could easily see the Mets much improved and serious challengers! If Mo Vaughan comes back, if Roger Cedeno regains his 2001 form, as well as Roberto Alomar... they could be impressive.

[goldenboy]

Didn't the Cubs get a new coach in the offseason? I think they did, I just can't remember who it was. Maybe he'll be a little better coach than Kim was, I agree he used Mark Prior way too much in the little time he was in the big leagues.

[Opperman]

Posted by donhaney:

Opperman, as always, great points. But my underlying thought about the Phillies is that Larry Bowa doesn't have a clue about how to manage a pitching staff. And it shows in one of your points with Vincente Padilla.

 

Or anything else, for that matter. But they could still win in spite of him if he doesn't do something stupid like run off Pat Burrell or start Ricky Ledee or Tyler Houston consistently.

 

I really think the Braves have a lot of holes at this point.

 

At catcher, Lopez is not very good, at first, Fick isn't very good, at third, Castilla is PUTRID. Frucal at short isn't as good as everybody thinks...a 323 OBP isn't very good, and for all his speed, a 64% SB success rate is actually a negative overall, break-even is about 70%. At second, Marcus Giles regressed...a 315 OBP is too low.

 

They only heave three legit hitters: Jones, Jones, and Sheffield. Their starting rotation should be solid, but they have question marks in Hampton (whose previous success has come in extreme pitchers' parks, which Turner is not) and Byrd, who has really only had one good year and apparently wasn't good enough for the Braves five years ago. Russ Ortiz has been solid, but he's not as good as his ERA would make you think - contrary to popular opinion, Pac Bell is the most extreme pitchers' park in the majors and has been for a while. Then again, he was a better hitter last year than Lopez or Castilla. (And Hampton *IS* a better hitter than Lopez or Castilla)

[goldenboy]

I forgot the Braves had Marcus Giles, I love that kid. I wonder how many homers Mike Hampton will hit this year. lol