papa chaos

It's way too early in the week for us to have already disregarded discussion of the game. Let me throw something out there: Since 2000, Maryville has faced a team from upper East TN three times in this round of the playoffs: In 2000, Maryville defeated Greeneville 28-12 In 2004, Maryville defeated Tennessee High 49-0 In 2007, Maryville defeated Sullivan South 48-14 That's a combined total of 125-26. Maryville's lowest scoring output in any single game has exceeded the cumulative score of the three opponents across all the games, but...Prior to each of those games, folks from the NET told us repeatedly that the team we were about to see was on a level like none other we'd ever seen because of how they had run through teams all season long. However, after each of those games, it was clear to MHS fans that we had already seen better teams during the season leading some of us to question the level of competition in Regions 1 & 2. So, what is different this year?

Or to draw the accompanying ire...

Of course no one would lump the Govman in as a Maryville hater. The Govman is one of a kind. Having said that, it does get difficult as a Maryville supporter who enjoys message boards to take constant criticism for supporting the team and for predicting their success. Would you prefer that we pick our team to lose? Wouldn't we be foolish to do that when they've shown us week in and week out for years that it's so much more the exception than the rule to lose? It's just a poor decision based on statistical probability to pick against the Rebels, so I don't think it makes us arrogant to assume our team will continue to do what it has done for so long: win. If anything, it just makes us conservative in our emotional investments because we're picking a safe bet /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

Thank you sir. Sounds like we'll need it. See you next season.

Just thought I'd chime in on the game briefly before we all move on to next week: - I thought that the venue was great. I got there a little bit later than I intended and was relieved to find a great seat. - Did anyone hear the final attendance? I don't know if the stadium made it look smaller or if there just weren't nearly as many people there as anticipated. - RC is one of those teams (I think) that makes you play ugly. I think that is often an attribute of these "special" teams that you hear about making the right breaks along the way. Their defense was solid, and I was impressed with their ability to keep MHS out of the end zone. - A couple of huge plays made the difference. MHS had great field position all night, but didn't capitalize the way they usually do. The fumblerooski and the fake punt were huge, as was the Harris interception when it looked like RC was poised to take the lead. - I think I saw MHS misfire for the first time ever on a trick play...wow. - I did think that was a pass interference but also thought the coach was out of line. - I didn't have any run-ins with any of the RC folks...all red and black around me. All in all, good game. I enjoyed being there and appreciate the hospitality of the RC folks. Congratulations on your season and good luck again next year.

Well I just ran my formula, and my (flawed) calculations predict a final score of Maryville - 20 Rhea Co - 14 My real prediction is Maryville - 31 Rhea Co - 13 We'll see which prevails. Good luck to both teams and roll on Mighty Mighty Red Rebels!

Thanks eaglefan, that's what I'm here for! Seriously, sometimes people take me for a jerk when I start throwing those numbers around. It's funny, because it's my way of trying to look at things as fairly as I know how. I'd never resent anyone for supporting their team. I'd have a heckuva lot less respect for anyone who didn't! I've really enjoyed all of the RC posts on here this week. It's really refreshing when a team's fan base so wholeheartedly believes that they are going to get the win against your team...Maryville only sees that 2 or 3 times a year: Alcoa, the state game, and usually once in the playoffs prior to that. I'm hoping for a great game that is worthy of the atmosphere that seems to be building up around this one. Of course in the end, I hope to see the Mighty Mighty Red Rebels take another one on the field. Here's to hoping that everyone has safe travel, that we enjoy a safe game, and that it's a good time for all.

You may know football, but statistics apparently are not your strong suit. A 50/50 chance implies that the odds of each outcome are equally likely. While there are only two outcomes, anytime external forces have an impact in determining the outcome it is unlikely that it's truly 50/50. In this case, I have to say that the numbers I've studied suggest the odds are considerably in Maryville's favor.

Dave Hooker is an idiot. I'd rather listen to Heather break down a game than him.

Well I've been reading this stuff all week, and my initial thought is that Rhea County will be just another one of those teams to really believe that they are the ones who will finally hang an L on the mighty Rebels, but I decided to look at some numbers as I often like to do just to see what they tell me. So, I thought I'd share some things with you all for whatever it's worth. Schedule: Maryville's record this season stands at 12-0. They have played 4 teams with a winning record. The combined win/loss number for MHS opponents is 58-72. Rhea's record this season stands at 10-2. They have played 6 teams with a winning record. The combined win/loss number for RC opponents is 53-75. Advantage? Well, I think that the strength of schedule is relatively close if slightly in favor of RC. However, the fact that they lost twice turns the statistics in favor of the Rebels, in my opinion. Offense: Maryville hung a total of 419 points on opponents this season. They averaged 35 points per game, and had an average margin of victory of 27 points. Rhea County scored 339 points this season, and averaged 28 points per contest. Their average margin of victory (skewed of course by those two losses) was 11.25 points per game. If you remove the two losses from the equation the average margin of victory increases to 18 points per game. Advantage? Obviously, the advantage here goes to the Rebels who score a full touchdown more each game and enjoy a comfortable margin of victory which exceeds that of RC's by 2 td's and 2 safeties per game. Defense: Maryville surrendered only 99 points this season. They held opponents to an average of 8 points per game! Rhea County gave up 204 points this season. Their opponents score an average of 17 points per game. Advantage? Again, this obviously leans in favor of the Rebels. They held their opponents to a TD (less the extra point) and a field goal less than did the Eagles this year. Even if you remove the losses, MHS still held teams to nearly four points less per game. Head to Head: Caveat and disclaimer: I understand that different teams match up differently against common opponents and I grasp the "any given Friday" concept. Having said that, here's what the numbers say: These two teams have had 3 common opponents this season. Against those opponents Maryville went 3-0 while Rhea County went 2-1 (advantage Maryville). MHS scored an average of 39 points in these games while RC scored an average of 22 (advantage MHS by 2 td's, 2 extra points, and a field goal). MHS allowed 11 points per game from these opponents while RC allowed 23 (advantage MHS by a td, extra point, field goal and safety). So, in the area of common opponents, Maryville has clearly appeared to be the superior team. Intangibles: Experience: Rebels Coaching: Rebels Home-field: Rhea County Emotions: Rhea County I'm excited. I'm going to punch a few more numbers before I predict a score, but I'm thinking it's close early and Maryville pulls away in the second half. Your thoughts?

Gracias. I was able to cut my business trip short, and I'll be there /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

One more question: is the stadium at the same address as the school?

I've missed a lot of games while out of town on business this season, and I'm afraid this one may be yet another. I'll be trying to make it, but... Will it be televised or streamed anywhere? How early do I need to be there to get a seat?

I just sat here for the last 45 minutes and read this entire thread (and watched some of the youtube links too)...classic. I had a thought: who do you all think would win in a matchup between UT and Michigan THIS year? Obviously, there is some unspoken rivalry and history between the two schools from stadium size to Heisman candidates. Both are typically pretty good teams, and this year they are both terrible. So, if the two met in 2008, what would happen?

Wow Brandon I never thought I'd say this, but hearing from you is actually a relief from some of the crap we've been getting this year. You're a total upgrade from our new Oak Ridge friend. As long as we can keep it as productive as your first couple of posts here, I think we can get along just fine. I'm not sure that you're quite on point here though. I don't see any Maryville folks complaining about the reclassification. Of course we'll always defend our schedule (you of all people know that) and our accomplishments up to this point. Naturally, we'll also state our belief in the validity of our current and past classification. But I've not heard the MHS faithful complaining about moving up. I think that we all realize it will be a tougher path to the gold ball in the future, and I think there will be some new excitement with new opponents next year. It is what it is, and GQ and staff will prepare our kids for that to the best of their abilities. We'll just have to see where that will take us. So far we've been pleased with the results.

You are right. I was wrong. I stand corrected. I re-read the previous posts and retract my prior statement.

Point of clarification: MHS fans have said no such thing. There's one guy on here who's posting as if he's an MHS fan and now you're lumping in an Alcoa guy with MHS...please don't let AHS speak for us...

No truer post has been made in this thread or any other one like it.

Who? Bladerunner right before he dumped her for Miss America?

THANK YOU T-POOLE! I'm with you on several points there. How many times has WB had a kickoff or punt returned for a TD this season? I remember in the Soddy Daisy game, they gave up returns almost to the goal line on the first two kickoffs and had themselves in terrible position. I agree with you about Owens. I've been really impressed with his poise. I can't remember any other time I've heard of or seen a freshman start at varsity QB. And I think he's done a fine job. When his athletic ability catches up to his maturity and experience, he'll be a formidable weapon. I think it's going to be interesting to see what MHS does with all of the QB's hanging around there. I think that Chamberlain had pretty much established himself as the starter before the season, but in his absense Julihn (I never can remember how to spell that so someone correct/forgive me) has really started to click and Young is doing great too. What a nice problem to have. Think we could see the beginning of a 3 quarterback system? Has WB gotten any better at defending the pass? When I've watched them this year there have been guys open all over the place but they've been solid against the run.

Never have and don't expect that I ever will. What's changing in 2009/10 to exacerbate that?

Can we all work on this thread for awhile since the other one's gotten a little off-topic? Anyone picking WB this week? Anyone else excited that it's starting to feel like football weather on Friday nights? Anyone want to talk about anything actually related to this game? Let's go!

When the streak finally does come to an end, I hope it's to WB. I also hope that it never comes to an end for whatever that's worth. Last year was WB's best chance on paper to beat Maryville. With the loss of all those seniors, and then the loss of the coach, and then the losses to injury...it's just not looking like WB's season. I've been to a couple of the Govs games this year, and I saw some promise there. I think the freshman QB has a very bright future if they can keep him from getting killed in the backfield. I know that WB always has tons of heart. I think that some of the on-field decisions I've seen made this year have been pretty unfortunate and have not put the kids in the best position to capitalize. Maryville is starting to click in their typical rhythm right now. Friday night was our best showing of the season, and the first game where we didn't have some prolonged lapses. They looked like the MHS teams we've grown accustomed to seeing out there over the years. It's just not WB's year. They don't have the depth to stay in it. They don't have the guns to surprise anyone. And they don't have the coaching to pull out a close one. I wish the Govs the absolute best, and here's to hoping for a good game BUT the mighty mighty Red Rebels roll on this week.

I said it "might" mean that... I'm a Maryville fan, so I know how good Alcoa is. I've not seen a team in 2A in years that could even compete with them, let alone beat them. I will say this, though. One of the biggest reasons that Alcoa plays close games with Maryville is the sheer familiarity they have with MHS. There is no "Maryville mystique" when playing Alcoa. Alcoa KNOWS that MHS puts their pads on the same way and they play like it. Also, Alcoa is the Maryville of 2A. They've won a bunch of championships and walk around on the right side of that learning curve. Until you've gone to the big dance, there's still a chance that you don't know what you're in for when you get there. That's what's happened to Red Bank against the Rebels. Having said that, Alcoa is not Maryville and I do think that the Red Bank teams we've seen the past couple of years could have given Alcoa a great game...and maybe could have won. It's pointless speculation, but I don't like Alcoa at all so I'm all for seeing them have some stiffer competition...which they would if they weren't so great!

Here's the problem with this thread...its title is not "is Maryville good enough to compete in DII?" It's not "is Maryville good enough to compete in CA, FL or MS?" It's more like "congratulations for an arbitrary recognition that you've worked very hard to earn." Regardless of your schedule, going 65 straight is a great accomplishment. It means that you've shown up each and every Friday night for multiple years without believing the hype and you've given it your all and have come out on top. That's commendable by any standard...especially for kids. Kids. These are young men who are at least as committed to football as most of us are to anything in our lives. Why do we need to belittle that? It's not Maryville who ranked themselves. It's not our kids or fans who picked us out of the state as one of the teams worth recognizing. And it's not our fans who made any outrageous claims about our team until we were pushed to defend them. It's a group of boys who have done something so remarkable that the national media has taken notice. Let's not diminish that with qualifications or limitations...for either team. Here's what I do know: Maryville is the measuring stick of 4A football in the state of TN. Say what you want about TN football or about the classifications of TN football. But in 4A in this state, Maryville has proven itself to be the best. Period. And that's all we have to do. We're not a national program. We don't recruit nationally. Honestly, we don't really even send out many of our players to compete athletically on a very widespread basis across the nation after they graduate. We are a 4A program. And we're great at that. And we're proud of that. I don't need to know where these kids stand nationally, because at the end of each season I know that they stand alone at the top of the classification where they compete. That's their goal, and most years it's realized to an unparalelled degree of success. Discussion outside of that rhealm is pointless speculation. It's "sound and fury signifying nothing." Sorry for the epistle, but in closing I want to just respond directly to a couple of points: 1. Is the MHS schedule weak? It is what it is. To win the gold ball, MHS has to beat the best of 4A, and that's what they do. 2. Could MHS compete outside of TN? No one knows for sure, but there is one source that knows better than anyone who's posted on this thread and I'll give you his opinion to take for whatever it's worth. Coach Blade from Hillsboro had great things to say after playing Maryville in the state championship a couple of years ago. Prior to his move to Nashville he coached in both HS and college in CALIFORNIA (oh, and he was an all-conference player there too at San Diego State). After the loss in the state championship he said of Maryville that they had one of the best offenses he had ever seen and that they could compete with ANY team in the nation. Maybe that was false modesty on his part b/c of the loss, or maybe someone with a legit ability to make this comparison feels differently than many on here do. You'll decide what is most convenient for you to believe, but that opinion came from someone more qualified than any of us to make that call. /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />