Sorting out D 2 AAA after 5 games

[baylorbigdog1976]

I do not have time to write at this moment but things look interesting in D2 AAA this year. Some surprises last night and a few coming out parties as well.

[JRB]

47 minutes ago, baylorbigdog1976 said:

I do not have time to write at this moment but things look interesting in D2 AAA this year. Some surprises last night and a few coming out parties as well.

Agreed.  IMO there is no clear cut favorite however I can see Baylor-Ensworth-BA-McCallie and maybe even Briarcrest contending in Cookeville.

[PurplePanther]

19 minutes ago, JRB said:

Agreed.  IMO there is no clear cut favorite however I can see Baylor-Ensworth-BA-McCallie and maybe even Briarcrest contending in Cookeville.

Memphis had all of the drama last night.  Good win for MBA.  I was shocked by the JP2 score setting up an interesting game between the two.

i am loving the competition this year...it’s the Wild West.

[Spartan4Life]

This is a true year where legitimately 5 or 6 teams can win it.

[baylorbigdog1976]

So after 5 weeks I feel okay with making a few assumptions.

1. This is the most interesting and exciting D2 AAA in some time. 

2. BA and McCallie seem to be the two favorites but Baylor has elevated itself into the discussion now along with Briarcrest in Memphis. I am not writing off MUS either after one loss.

3. MBA , Ensworth, Knox Catholic, CBHS could all win games and knock off teams under number 2.

4. McCallie has showed me something this year so the next few weeks will be interesting.  

5. This is a fun year to be a fan in D2AAA. 

[PurplePanther]

I wouldn’t sleep on Briarcrest.  The defense held #44 to 39 yds rushing.  He did take a kickoff to the house for the only JP2 score.  I will be watching...and yes, great time to watch the division.

[baylorbigdog1976]

I don’t think you can rest on any of the teams. MBA even. They lost to  very good teams.  It’s a stacked division this year.

 

[Breaker19]

17 hours ago, baylorbigdog1976 said:

I don’t think you can rest on any of the teams. MBA even. They lost to  very good teams.  It’s a stacked division this year.

 

Agree! Stacked division, looking forward to see how this plays out.

[LouPickney]

If I understand things correctly: the only games that matter for playoff consideration are the five in a school's region, with the top four teams in each region making the II-AAA playoffs.

MBA has eight II-AAA teams on its 2019 schedule, which I know is going to cause some confusion.

MBA's remaining schedule: vs. Ensworth (no), at JP2 (yes), vs. Brentwood Academy (no), at Baylor (no), vs. CBHS (yes).

To summarize: if they beat JP2 and CBHS, MBA will finish 4-1 in its region. Aside from tiebreaker considerations, for playoff seeding purposes it doesn't matter what happens for MBA against Ensworth. Or BA. Or Baylor.

If the post-season began today, these eight schools would be in the II-AAA playoffs...

WEST
Briarcrest: 3-0, with CBHS and MUS remaining.
Outstanding run defense, anchored by standout DL Omari Thomas. And while the Saints do have some vulnerability against the pass (see: MBA's fourth quarter rally), you need an accurate pocket QB who isn't afraid to take a hit or a scrambling QB who is adept at throwing on the move.

And, even with that, it won't come easy. Beware the Briarcrest line surge. That team is for real.

RB Jamari Small is remarkably elusive. Against MBA he had 22 carries for 170 yards and 3 TDs. QB Michael Dallas is a dual threat who, from what I've seen, doesn't make many mistakes.

Briarcrest vs. Baylor would be very interesting. Ditto for Briarcrest vs. McCallie. Perhaps we'll get at least one of those matchups in the playoffs.

MBA: 2-1, with  JP2 and CBHS remaining.
Hard-nosed team, won't give up. They trailed by 17 in Q4 against Briarcrest and fought back late to make it a three-point game. Similar to MUS, the Big Red are trying to balance a two-QB system, with a senior pocket passer and a freshman who can throw on the run.

MBA will face some tough RBs down the stretch: Antwan Roberts of JP2, Jordan James of BA, Elijah Howard of Baylor, and Al Wooten of CBHS. I've seen all four play in person, though I haven't seen Wooten since the 2017 playoff quarterfinal game I called up at Christian Brothers. I can assure you Wooten '17 was talented back then, and it appears he's even better now.

MUS: 1-1, with St. Benedict, JP2, and Briarcrest remaining.
MBA vs. MUS was an exciting game, a good defensive battle. But MUS had serious trouble running the ball, which doesn't bode well for their regular-season finale at Briarcrest.

However, MUS will throw deep, and they've got a great WR in Gavin McKay who is a major matchup challenge. And the Owls have some size on their line.

MUS also took some chances on its throws against MBA that it mostly got away with, though I'm not sure if that's typical as I haven't seen very much from MUS beyond that one game.

CBHS: 1-1, with Briarcrest, St. Benedict, and MBA remaining.
RB Al Wooten vs. Briarcrest's run defense is going to be a fun matchup to watch. Christian Brothers contained JP2 RB Antwan Roberts (16c/76y/1 TD) in their win over the Knights, which impressed me. I haven't seen anything beyond highlights for CBHS at this point, and thus I can't add much more at the moment.
 

EAST
McCallie: 2-0, with Baylor, Father Ryan, and Ensworth remaining.
Their game with Baylor one week from Friday is going to be intense. McCallie's rushing attack is very difficult to contain. They ran for 330 yards in their victory at BA, the only game thus far this season where McCallie didn't mercy-rule their opponent. When is the last time that any team ran for 330+ yards on the road against Brentwood Academy?

McCallie does have to be careful with the turnovers, though. That's what nearly gave BA the win in that game. But if they can minimize the self-inflicted mistakes, lookout.

QB DeAngelo Hardy is very fast, same for RB B.J. Harris who can also make quick cuts that border on ridiculous. And if you try to stack the line, Hardy will throw it over your head.

Baylor: 2-0 with McCallie, Knoxville Catholic, and Brentwood Academy remaining.
The schedule worked out well for the Red Raiders, with a bye week before the McCallie game. I saw how good this Baylor team is in person, with RB Elijah Howard living up to the billing and lines on both sides of the ball showing tremendous surge.

I know some on here were skeptical before last Friday, but Baylor going on the road and knocking off previously unbeaten Ensworth 24-14 was a major statement. Per hudl, Baylor held Ensworth to 59 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Howard had 245 rushing yards on 32 carries and 3 TDs for the Red Raiders.

Brentwood Academy: 1-1 with Knoxville Catholic, Ensworth, and Baylor remaining.
Some of the people at BA were telling me this past Friday night that QB Wade Williams, who suffered a shoulder injury against Whitehaven the weekend before last, is expected to be back before the end of the regular season. BA's best wide receiver, Preston Sagen, is recovering from an injury as well but is expected to return relatively soon.

In a related note, don't count out BA. As noted earlier, they're the only team to not get mercy-ruled by McCallie this season, and BA had the lead with less than a minute to go and ended up having a chance to win it from the McCallie 9-yard line on the final play.

They're the four-time defending state champs and appear to be a serious contender again this year, particularly if they can get some key people healthy for the playoffs.

Ensworth: 1-1 with Father Ryan, Brentwood Academy, and McCallie remaining.
Ensworth takes on MBA on Friday, a big game for both schools, even though it's a non-region matchup.

I'll see Ensworth in person next Friday. Keshawn Lawrence is a top-five national college prospect at safety. Also a really good RB, though the Tigers haven't utilized Lawrence in that role very much in 2019.

Charles Ingram, who played some at WR as a freshman last year and now shares time at RB, has exceptional lateral movement. Ingram breaks all sorts of tackles because of that, like trying to tackle a ghost when Ingram abruptly shifts left or right.

What's more, Ensworth switches out Ingram with Toleo Malone, who at least last year was listed at 5'9" 220. Malone presents an entirely different challenge, in the Maurice Jones-Drew mold.

It really says something that Baylor contained the Tigers rushing attack so effectively this past Friday.

[baylorbigdog1976]

Really good summary. Thanks for taking the time to do this.  

Many good points and right on in my opinion.

[noonesfool]

Well done, well said, Lou Pickney.