Region 4 - 4a Region Winner?

[Tigersnumber]

With only a few game left in the season, this region is highly contested, and is currently in a 3 way tie for first place. How do you see it playing out, and why?

[Volsfan52]

I’m a upperman fan I would like to think we had a shot but we have to beat dekalb this week In order to have one. I have seen all the teams in our region but dekalb. On film they looked like a really good team and we our playing a lot better than we did against stone. Macon county will go as far as #7 takes them. The kids is blink away from talking it to the house everyone he touches the ball. Macon has other players but #7 is a weapon. Has to be a candidate for Mr football. Stone is a very good team also. There qb is very good and can take it to house hisself. Stone also has some other players that really good. 

[Khall555]

On 10/8/2022 at 10:06 AM, Potter46 said:

I’m a upperman fan I would like to think we had a shot but we have to beat dekalb this week In order to have one. I have seen all the teams in our region but dekalb. On film they looked like a really good team and we our playing a lot better than we did against stone. Macon county will go as far as #7 takes them. The kids is blink away from talking it to the house everyone he touches the ball. Macon has other players but #7 is a weapon. Has to be a candidate for Mr football. Stone is a very good team also. There qb is very good and can take it to house hisself. Stone also has some other players that really good. 

Some observations:

Cumberland and Livingston were officially eliminated last night.

There is no path for either of them to make the playoffs after Macon beat Stone.

I am going to assume Macon beats Cumberland and Upperman beats Livingston in my scenarios then it becomes about 50 different ways.

DeKalb: Can’t win the region but can finish 2nd with wins over Stone and Upperman.

If they split those games then they finish 3rd

If they lose both then they are 4th

Stone: Stone can finish 1st if they win out and Macon loses to Smith

Stone finishes 2nd if they win out and Macon beats Smith

Stone finishes 3rd if they lose to DeKalb and DeKalb beats Upperman

They finish 4th if Upperman beats DeKalb and DeKalb beats them

Macon: Macon Wins the region if DeKalb beats Upperman

Macon also wins the region if they win out and if Stone and Upperman beats DeKalb

Scenarios for Macon finishing 2nd and 3rd are to numerous to list at this moment

Macon can’t finish 4th unless they lose to Cumberland

Upperman: Upperman finishes 1st if they beat DeKalb and DeKalb beats Stone

There are a bunch of other scenarios of they win out and Macon loses to Smith and Stone loses to Kingston

Upperman finishes 2nd if they beat DeKalb, and Stone beats DeKalb and Kingston & Macon loses to Smith

Also there are a bunch of scenarios where Upperman finishes 3rd

Upperman finishes 4th if they lose to DeKalb 

 

That is all I have for now after the DeKalb Upperman game the Region will be clearer. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by Khall555

[OldTownRoad]

Overall wins is the first tiebreaker for a three (or more) team tie. This is directly from the TSSAA handbook:

The following tie-breaking procedures shall be applied and all regular-season games, both region and non-region, shall count (After each of the following steps have been applied, item C above shall be applied.):

1. The team with the greatest number of victories.

2. The team who plays the greatest number of teams who win 50 percent or more of their games.

3. The team who has the greatest number of victories over teams winning 50 percent or more of their games.

4. The team whose opponents have earned the most victories.

5. The team whose opponents have received fewer defeats.

6. Coin Flip

If one of these criteria can reduce the tie to two teams, it reverts to head-to-head winner. It appears that Macon County is in the driver's seat if they beat Smith County (would have more overall wins than Upperman, then edge over Stone Memorial by head-to-head victory). If Smith County wins, Macon would finish third in a three way tie (Stone would win based on number of wins, Upperman gets second over Macon due to head-to-head victory).

[Khall555]

Things just got a lot clearer

Macon: with a win over Cumberland will finish either 1st or 2nd they can finish 3rd with a loss to Smith and if Stone wins out.

Upperman can finish either 1st 2nd or 3rd with a win over Livingston

Stone can finish 4th with a loss to DeKalb or 2nd or 3rd and can be 1st if Smith beats Macon and they win out or a Cumberland win at Macon

DeKalb will either finish 4th with a loss to Stone or 3rd with a win

No team actually controls their own fate

I predict

Upperman 1st

Macon 2nd

DeKalb 3rd

Stome 4th

Edited October 15, 2022 by Khall555

[Volsfan52]

All 4 teams in this region our evenly matched. Any 4 of these teams can go deep in the playoffs. 

[TheBlueprint]

14 hours ago, Potter46 said:

All 4 teams in this region our evenly matched. Any 4 of these teams can go deep in the playoffs. 

Having seen 3 of the 4 play, I can say that there’s not much of a difference between any of them. They all lack true speed and a real difference maker on the offensive side of the ball. All are pretty good defensively, especially up front. But any team in the playoffs that has good speed on offense will give them trouble. Just my 2 cents 

[Khall555]

On 10/16/2022 at 9:52 AM, Roooster said:

Having seen 3 of the 4 play, I can say that there’s not much of a difference between any of them. They all lack true speed and a real difference maker on the offensive side of the ball. All are pretty good defensively, especially up front. But any team in the playoffs that has good speed on offense will give them trouble. Just my 2 cents 

 Macon actually has that type of player.