New D2 Prediction Thread

[itzme]

It certainly does make a difference. Given the size of DII lines now, you almost have to be able to substitute some, and you have to figure on injuries, and some of them will be truly inopportune. Consider MBA and Ensworth last year. MBA lost Patrick Crum, a very talented RB, and Ensworth lost Tavares Jefferson (I believe that's the young man's name, I apologize if I'm wrong). MBA had the depth to replace him; Ensworth was severely limited.

 

I've raised this point before and apparently really honked off some Ensworth people. That's not my intention. I think Ensworth has talented players, and they are certainly well coached. My recollection is that one Ensworth parent said they planned to keep class size at about 120. Let's assume half of those are males, and let's also assume that most of the time, your freshman will play either freshman or jv football. That leaves Ensworth 180 males from which to build a varsity program (compared to roughly 320 at MBA, using the same process). MBA's rosters are consistently around 80 players. At the same proportion, Ensworth can field 45. When you start whittling down players who are actually capable of contributing, Ensworth's numbers get small.

 

I think Ensworth will be a consistently good program, and I think they will win some state championships. But I also think there will be some years where they have a great team the last week of August, and end the season with a mediocre record that can be traced to a couple of injuries.

 

Your rationale is spot on. Ensworth will face the same challenges that BA does if they continue to play up, which undoubtedly they will. I think that's a great point that not very many people take into account.

 

While BA has some very good players, they will never have the depth of a MBA, Ryan, McCallie or CBHS. Just because you see 100 guys standing on the sidelines at a home game does not mean that very many of them will see meaningful action. Most years, BA will play 30-35 on a rotating basis while a game is in doubt. If any of those is sick or injured, the drop off is pretty obvious. Ensworth may end up in about the same boat.

 

Nothing wrong with that, but just a numerical fact.

[soccerpro1]

BA has a depth issue!!!! Give me a break. Your tongue must be planted firmly in your cheek. Year and year out they play 5 or 6 future NCAA DI players. They don't have the academic entrance requirements of MBA, McCallie, Baylor, Ensworth, etc and tuition is less than those. I'd like to see the number of starters they have on scholarship versus the rest of DII. "Most years, BA will play 30-35 on a rotating basis while a game is in doubt". Baylor and McCallie would be proud to be able to make that statement with a straight face.

[Chattcity]

BA has a depth issue!!!! Give me a break. Your tongue must be planted firmly in your cheek. Year and year out they play 5 or 6 future NCAA DI players. They don't have the academic entrance requirements of MBA, McCallie, Baylor, Ensworth, etc and tuition is less than those. I'd like to see the number of starters they have on scholarship versus the rest of DII. "Most years, BA will play 30-35 on a rotating basis while a game is in doubt". Baylor and McCallie would be proud to be able to make that statement with a straight face.

 

 

The probelm is even more exacerbated at Baylor since they went co-ed. Although talent wins most games, football really is a numbers game.

[soccerpro1]

The probelm is even more exacerbated at Baylor since they went co-ed. Although talent wins most games, football really is a numbers game.

 

 

It looks like from across the river that Baylor has made a deliberate decision to field competitive (extremely in several cases) teams in as many sports as possible to the unintended detriment of football. The perennial state girls and boys golf championship team don't distract from football but I imagine devoting serious resources to crew, wrestling, soccer, etc. diminshes success in football. At least I'm counting it for another year to extend the streak.

[USA1]

BA has a depth issue!!!! Give me a break. Your tongue must be planted firmly in your cheek. Year and year out they play 5 or 6 future NCAA DI players. They don't have the academic entrance requirements of MBA, McCallie, Baylor, Ensworth, etc and tuition is less than those. I'd like to see the number of starters they have on scholarship versus the rest of DII. "Most years, BA will play 30-35 on a rotating basis while a game is in doubt". Baylor and McCallie would be proud to be able to make that statement with a straight face.

 

BA has just over 200 boys in the high school and does not give out anywhere close to the financial aid as McCallie, Baylor or MBA (bigger, older schools with huge endowments and large alumni base). They could not afford to do it. The tuition is less, but still 15K. I think the enrollment is what Itzme is speaking of in the depth department. I will agree that BA has helped develop their share of D1 athletes.

[soccerpro1]

BA has just over 200 boys in the high school and does not give out anywhere close to the financial aid as McCallie, Baylor or MBA (bigger, older schools with huge endowments and large alumni base). They could not afford to do it. The tuition is less, but still 15K. I think the enrollment is what Itzme is speaking of in the depth department. I will agree that BA has helped develop their share of D1 athletes.

 

 

 

You're right, BA gives a fraction of the grant in need scholarships that the schools you cited do which is a function of student body size and tuition amount but the salient point for this discussion is to which sport's athletes they are disproportionately given. That's not a criticism of BA's policies but an observation of BA's athletic priorities. If I'm Ralph Potter or formerly Carlton Flatt, the AD and football coach and in a position to influence who receives scholarships, I bet you'll see a bias towards large fast young boys who might help me in the sport that I coach. If my assumptions are wrong, please disabuse me of what is apparent to most who watch BA football year end and year out.

[USA1]

You're right, BA gives a fraction of the grant in need scholarships that the schools you cited do which is a function of student body size and tuition amount but the salient point for this discussion is to which sport's athletes they are disproportionately given. That's not a criticism of BA's policies but an observation of BA's athletic priorities. If I'm Ralph Potter or formerly Carlton Flatt, the AD and football coach and in a position to influence who receives scholarships, I bet you'll see a bias towards large fast young boys who might help me in the sport that I coach. If my assumptions are wrong, please disabuse me of what is apparent to most who watch BA football year end and year out.

 

I have just as much knowledge about financial aid recipients at BA as I do MBA. I don't think you know either. I think you are assuming and that is perfectly fine for a message board. Giving your opinion or assumptions is all part of the Coach-T experience. One thing I do know for sure, however. Neither MBA or BA give "scholarships" to anyone. They give need based financial aid. BA uses a firm in the New England area that determines eligibility and it is 100% determined by the families ability to pay. This firm does not know anything other than the finances of the prospective student's family. They do not know race, athletic ability, big, small, fast or slow - just the numbers. This is not my opinion. I know this to be true.

[itzme]

You're right, BA gives a fraction of the grant in need scholarships that the schools you cited do which is a function of student body size and tuition amount but the salient point for this discussion is to which sport's athletes they are disproportionately given. That's not a criticism of BA's policies but an observation of BA's athletic priorities. If I'm Ralph Potter or formerly Carlton Flatt, the AD and football coach and in a position to influence who receives scholarships, I bet you'll see a bias towards large fast young boys who might help me in the sport that I coach. If my assumptions are wrong, please disabuse me of what is apparent to most who watch BA football year end and year out.

 

Your comments reveal that you are simply ignorant about the way the financial aid system works. The apparent fact is that you are either too lazy or too blinded to do the research. I gave up trying to educate people on CoachT some time ago, and do not intend to restart now.

 

My amplification of KWoodruff's points speak for themselves. Try adding to a conversation rather than making a fool of yourself.

[INVNO1]

CBHS would have been good if not for like 5 transfers to Olive Branch.

 

Briarcrest will be good again, but given how terrible they were last year, it will take more than a year for them to build it back up. We are talking about a team that lost to D2-A last year. They have a standout lineman but that is about it. (If they did do some heavy recruiting, then maybe I could agree).

 

St. benedict just always finds a way to not be good despsite having so many kids.

 

I agree that ECS always out quality teams. They will be minus the younger coach Heinz since he got canned in the last month.

 

MUS has to be the favorite. They will have a stout defense once again and the offense is moving along like you mentioned. Its always been apparent that Brunetti has the athleticism to be a very dangerous QB via ground or air.

 

Prediction:

1) MUS

2) CBHS (toss up with ECS only because both had major losses, but CBHS has a ton more kids)

3) ECS

 

Any idea why the students transfered to Olive Branch?

[KWoodroof]

The probelm is even more exacerbated at Baylor since they went co-ed. Although talent wins most games, football really is a numbers game.

 

I'm not very familiar with Baylor. How did they handle going coed? Did they increase enrollment, or did they drastically reduce the number of males in a class?

 

Your comments reveal that you are simply ignorant about the way the financial aid system works. The apparent fact is that you are either too lazy or too blinded to do the research. I gave up trying to educate people on CoachT some time ago, and do not intend to restart now.

 

My amplification of KWoodruff's points speak for themselves. Try adding to a conversation rather than making a fool of yourself.

 

Like Diogenes, I wander the boards with my lantern, looking for a man with real evidence of recruiting....

[itzme]

I'm not very familiar with Baylor. How did they handle going coed? Did they increase enrollment, or did they drastically reduce the number of males in a class?

 

 

Like Diogenes, I wander the boards with my lantern, looking for a man with real evidence of recruiting....

 

Well, a couple of years ago, I privately accused one of your MBA brothers of being Don Quixote, so you two make quite the pair! /wink.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=";)" border="0" alt="wink.gif" />

[EHSParent]

How large are the classes at Ensworth? This came up last year, and it seems to me that they were keeping it at about 80 students. That makes for an awfully small group from which to build a DII team.

 

EHS has roughly 100-115 kids per class (I am within 5 or 10). So, they will have about 200 boys at school.