Week 10 Games with 6A Playoff Ramifications

[MarkH]

Kirby is already locked in as the #3 team from their district regardless of whether they win or lose. They have the tiebreaker with all of the teams that could be tied with them as they have already beat them.

[SCBisondad]

1st off I am sure I will miss 1 or 2 but....

Thursday:

 

Smyrna @ Oakland (Smyrna wins, they are in and Oakland gets WC, and one of Cordova/Rossview/McGavock/Ravenwood is out-yes Ravenwood...read on)

 

Ridgeway @ Kirby (Kirby D15 #3 if they win, #4 if the lose)

 

Friday:

 

Morristown East @ Sevier Co (Seeding within Quad if they lose they could drop a spot behind Maryville which could cause a chain reaction with teams from same district not playing 1st round)

 

Campbell Co @ Oak Ridge (Oak Ridge could be D3 #3 if they were to lose and Anderson Co beats Clinton) I'm sure you hit the wrong button accidentally.

 

Beaden @ Knoxville Catholic (if Beaden loses, they could drop in the WC standings below Independence, Rossview, and McGavock) shouldn't matter because Cordova can't pass them, but if Smyrna were to beat Oakland it could.

 

Maryville @ Lenoir City (Could have seeding implications if Maryville wins and Sevier Co loses see above)

 

Ooltewah @ McMinn Co (Winner is D5 #1, loser D5 #2 plus quad seeding on the line, could be the difference in 1st seed in quad or 4th for Ooltewah)

 

Coffee Co @ Cookeville (Winner is D6 #1, loser D6 #2 plus quad seeding on the line, Cookeville could be 3rd with a win or 5th with a loss)

 

Blackman @ Riverdale (Winner is D7 #1, Blackman could be #2 if they lose and Smyrna wins, #3 if they lose and Oakland wins, obviously quad seeding on the line too)

 

Beech @ Mt. Juliet (If Mt. Juliet wins, Mt. Juliet is D9 #2, If Beech wins and Gallatin loses, Mt. Juliet is D9 #2, If Beech wins and Gallatin wins, Mt. Juliet is D9 #1) If MJ beats Beech they are #1 not #2. (10-0) I'm sure you meant that but hit the wrong button since there right there together.

 

Gallatin @ Hendersonville (Yes a game between 2 5A teams has a little impact on the 6A playoffs, not much, just quad seeding for Mt. Juliet if they were to lose)

 

Henry co @ Rossview (If Rossview loses and Cordova and McGavock both win, this drops Rossview to final WC spot, and could be out if Smyrna wins)

 

Brentwood @ Franklin (Winner is D11 #1, Loser D11 #2)

 

Ravenwood @ Independence (Check this one out, if Ravenwood wins and Cordova loses, Ravenwood moves into the final WC spot over Cordova on 5th tiebreaker (fewest defeats by opponents currently, but will most likely fall back to 2nd, 3rd, or 4th tiebreaker with the outcome of basically every game in the state next week) and gets in if Smyrna loses...Raptors are big Oakland and Bolton fans this week. Also would want all their opponents to win and all of Cordova's opponents to lose, especially those who are 4-5 right now. More on this one when I sort it out)

 

Hunters Lane @ McGavock (Winner is D12 #1, if McGavock loses and Overton wins, Overton is D12 #2, otherwise McGavock is D12 #2)

 

Hillwood @ Overton (See above, and for Quad seeding if Overton were to lose, they would be D12 #4, but still get wilcard over Antioch (overall wins) even though Antioch beat Overton)

 

Dyer Co @ Brighton (Brighton wins, they are D13 #1, if they lose they are D13 #2)

 

Cordova @ Bolton (Probably the game with the most WC implications, 5-4 Cordova plays 4-5 Bolton, with a win Cordova move up the WC chart with 6 wins, but if the lose they could get passed by Ravenwood, none of Cordova or Boltons defeated opponents can end with a .500 record or better after this week, so they can't advance in tiebreaker #3, and Ravenwood would if they beat Independence)

 

Arlington @ Millington (Winner is D14 #1 loser D14 #2 unless Arlington wins and Craigmont wins, then Millington is D14 #3, Cordova could get into a 3 way tie for 2nd, but would lose out when Craigmont won tiebreaker by overall record, leaving them and Millington, and Millington won head to head)

 

Whitehaven @ Melrose (If Whitehaven wins they are D16 #2, if they lose they become a top WC team but wouldn't knock another wildcard team out because D16 only gets in 2 6A teams if they finish 1 & 2 so that would increase the WC bids by 1, so basically it's just for quad seeding, and Whitehaven is in.)

 

So, the way I see it the biggest 6A games in the state this week are:

 

#1 Smyrna @ Oakland

If Smyrna wins, Oakland takes a WC spot away from someone (Cordova/Rossview/McGavock/Independence/Ravenwood should all be cheering for Oakland, heck everyone should be cheering for Oakland )

 

#2 Cordova @ Bolton

If Cordova wins they could move up the WC standings if McGavock, Independence, or Rossview lose

 

#3 Ravenwood @ Independence

If Ravenwood wins and Cordova loses, Ravenwood would get to 5 wins as would Cordova, but Ravenwoods win over Independence would give them 3 wins over teams winning 50% of their games or more while Cordova would have only 2. None of the teams defeated by Cordova can get to 50% this week. Doesn't necessarily put Ravenwood in, because of the Smyrna/Oakland game, but would definitely be interesting ... and balance the quads geographically

 

#4 Henry Co. @ Rossview

Rossview can move up in the WC standings with a win, but couple a loss with a Cordova and McGavock win = not good for Rossview, they would both pass Rossview in the WC Standings.

 

#5 Hunters Lane @ McGavock

If McGavock loses, and Overton wins, McGavock becomes a WC team, BUT if Cordova wins, they would move ahead of McGavock for the last WC spot, again McGavock is a big Oakland fan Thursday night. Only good news is that Ravenwood can not pass McGavock in WC

 

#6 Hillwood @ Overton

Overton is in, either automatic or WC, but Read above.

 

#7 Brentwood @ Franklin

No real playoff implications other than quad seeding, but should be a great game to watch

OK, after all this, the new format has indeed caused interest across the state in the outcomes of other games, but I think many people don't care and will just see what comes out Saturday morning.

I corrected your Beech @ MJ if MJ wins above. Nice job. Alot of time spent on this. Thanks.

[randymc]

Kirby is already locked in as the #3 team from their district regardless of whether they win or lose. They have the tiebreaker with all of the teams that could be tied with them as they have already beat them.

Are you sure? If they lose to Ridgeway, wouldn't they be #4? They would be the 3rd 6A team in, but 4th in the district, which matters when seeding within the quad.

[randymc]

I corrected your Beech @ MJ if MJ wins above. Nice job. Alot of time spent on this. Thanks.

You are right, I will edit the original post right now. Thanks for your comment, I kind of enjoyed doing it.

[randymc]

Randy,

 

Craigmont is 5A, as far as I know.

 

Thanks for the interesting read!

But under this system, if they beat Kirby, they make Kirby #4 in their district, meaning quad seeding could change.

[MarkH]

Ridgeway is 5A and if Kirby lost they would be 4th overall but they are still the 3rd 6A team in the league and the last automatic qualifier. They have already beaten the other 6A teams below them that could possible tie them for the last spot.

[randymc]

Ridgeway is 5A and if Kirby lost they would be 4th overall but they are still the 3rd 6A team in the league and the last automatic qualifier. They have already beaten the other 6A teams below them that could possible tie them for the last spot.

You aren't getting what I am saying. Yes they are in, but being #3 or #4 in their district could be a big deal when it comes to seeding within their Quad.

[randymc]

Ridgeway is 5A and if Kirby lost they would be 4th overall but they are still the 3rd 6A team in the league and the last automatic qualifier. They have already beaten the other 6A teams below them that could possible tie them for the last spot.

You aren't getting what I am saying. Yes they are in, but being #3 or #4 in their district could be a big deal when it comes to seeding within their Quad.

And now I will correct myself, a little. It would matter, but the fact that I see no way Kirby passes Millington in the Quad seeding, Kirby's seeding in the Quad is 8th regardless...so scratch that one off the list.

[MarkH]

I think at best Kirby is a 7 seed but probably the 8 seed. If you go on the assumption of who has already qualified for this quad and then look at the list of teams they are the last team listed in order of tiebreakers. I don't think in their case it matters where they finish. I think if Arlington, Brighton and Whitehaven win then its

1-Arlington

2-Germantown

3-White Station

4-Brighton

5-Whitehaven

6-Wooddale

7-Millington

8-Kirby

 

If Millington, Brighton and Whitehaven win

1-White Station

2-Germantown

3-Brighton

4-Millington

5-Whitehaven

6-Wooddale

7-Arlington

8-Kirby

 

Arlington's fall to 7 is based on the fact that they can't play Millington in the first round (same district) and Germantown can't play Wooddale or Kirby (same district)

 

If Arlington and Brighton win and Whitehaven loses

1-Arlington

2-White Station

3-Germantown

4-Brighton

5-Wooddale

6-Millington

7-Kirby

8-Whitehaven (wild card)

 

If Arlington wins and Brighton and Whitehaven lose

1-Arlington

2-Germantown

3-White Station

4-Wooddale

5-Millington

6-Kirby

7-Whitehaven (wild card)

8-Brighton (wild card)

 

Overall district winners get seeded first then other automatic qualifiers then wild cards.

 

If Millington wins and Brighton and Whitehaven lose

 

1-Germantown

2-White Station

3-Millington

4-Arlington

5-Wooddale

6-Kirby

7-Whitehaven

8-Brighton

 

They would obivously have to switch a team in this case as WS and WH can't play each other.

[randymc]

Very good insight on Quad 4

 

I think they will be the 8.

[randymc]

1-Arlington

2-Germantown

3-White Station

4-Brighton

5-Whitehaven

6-Wooddale

7-Millington

8-Kirby

I think this is the way it will end up

 

If Millington, Brighton and Whitehaven win

1-White Station

2-Germantown

3-Brighton

4-Millington

5-Whitehaven

6-Wooddale

7-Arlington

8-Kirby

 

Arlington's fall to 7 is based on the fact that they can't play Millington in the first round (same district) and Germantown can't play Wooddale or Kirby (same district)

I don't think White Station moves ahead of Germantown here, I think you would start moving seeds at the bottom, but just a guess. So I would say Arlington 8th

 

All I know, after spending some time looking at Quad 4 in 6A and 5A, they are a mess! Should be an interesting friday night.

[randymc]

It's game day 1 of 2...should know a little more after tonight's games.