DII-AA Rankings: Week 7

[RedRobin1]

Just quoting McCallie's statistical page. If I'm wrong, it's because they're wrong.

 

Go to page seven of the TSSAA football handbook to see what this year's bracket will look like.

Thanks for posting this. Based on the season so far, it looks like the rematch between E/M Nos. 1 and 3 teams will decide the team to play for the championship in Cookeville, while all the other E/M teams slug it out with each other and with MUS to fill the bottom half of the championship bracket. Seems kind of uneven, with the West appearing to be pretty much a one-team league this year, though one never really knows what will happen. I continue to be amazed that CBHS (which I think has the largest enrollment in D2, by far) is not more competitive.

[WesVLT]

Thanks for posting this. Based on the season so far, it looks like the rematch between E/M Nos. 1 and 3 teams will decide the team to play for the championship in Cookeville, while all the other E/M teams slug it out with each other and with MUS to fill the bottom half of the championship bracket. Seems kind of uneven, with the West appearing to be pretty much a one-team league this year, though one never really knows what will happen. I continue to be amazed that CBHS (which I think has the largest enrollment in D2, by far) is not more competitive.

 

Interesting setup, isn't it? I hope one day the TSSAA decides to institute real playoffs instead of handing out free postseason participation. A good system would give berths to the top 2 teams from the West and the top 4 teams from East/Middle, with wild cards given to the next two best records. This year that would likely exclude Briarcrest, St. Benedict and JPII, three teams without championship hopes and with kids who would likely prefer to avoid a season-ending drubbing.

 

Strangely enough, this year I would rather be the No 4 seed in the East than the No. 3. The 3-seed gets a first-round bye and a very winnable quarterfinal game against the West runner-up, but has to travel to Memphis in the quarterfinals and deal with Ensworth in the semis. The 4-seed gets a gimme first-round game, avoids a quarterfinal trip to Memphis and doesn't have to play Ensworth until the championship game. In a league with this much parity below the Tigers, the bottom half of the bracket is much more inviting.

 

Christian Brothers' struggles especially surprise me when I look at the success its other sports have enjoyed. I'd be interested in owlbooster's take on why that program has been relatively stagnant.

[owlbooster]

I called the Liberty comparison a "small bit of evidence," not a primary reason for my decision to rank BA ahead of MUS. Comparative scores can indeed be sketchy, but when there is a big difference between two teams' performances against the same squad, one can use that difference to shed a little light on things. BA scored 45 points in the first half against Liberty and played its JV team in the final quarters. MUS led 14-6 at the break and labored to its win. Again, other factors were more important in my ranking, but it is not "stupid" to use all information at one's disposal, as long as each factor is given appropriate weight.

 

As I said in my previous post, I admit that it is unfair that I haven't seen MUS play since Week Zero and therefore do not have the body of evidence I'd like to have in judging the Owls. Their recent resurgence has gotten them into the top five in the rankings. Their blowout loss to BA justifiably keeps them behind the Eagles.

All you know about the MUS-Liberty Tech game is what you gleaned from a box score and a stats summary.  I assure you MUS did not "labor" to its win. 

 

Margins of victory over common opponents generally ARE a stupid means of comparison.  Different factors are in play.  For examples: home vs away game; field type (natural vs. turf); weather conditions; "matchups;" injuries; and especially turnovers, which can wildly skew the final results. 

 

Nonetheless, you seem adamant to let that week 0 win be the ultimate arbiter.  By that marker, then Father Ryan should be ranked ahead of both BA and MUS.  Remember? They beat you!

[owlbooster]

 

Christian Brothers' struggles especially surprise me when I look at the success its other sports have enjoyed. I'd be interested in owlbooster's take on why that program has been relatively stagnant.

 

Given the size of CBHS, they arguably should dominate D2, certainly locally at least.  And they do that somewhat in most sports most years.  Some factors mitigating against domination IMO: baseball players urged if not forbidden to pay football; embarrassingly bad BBall facilities; less than superior football coaching staff(s) although I think the new coach Vogel (from MUS) could turn things around in if they give him support and some time.

[baylorbigdog1976]

Why is conparative score analysis not fair ? If talk of rankings is subjective Wes's analysis is every bit as fair as yours ...a win is a win. Looking at how one team performs versus another is perfectly fine. The liberty coach is on record as saying BA is the best team they have ever played .. Who knows

 

It is good to see mus playing well. I was at the BA game and was really disappointed in what I saw . We need a strong team out of Memphis

Comparative scores against common opponents are a poor way of comparing teams. To imply that BA should be ranked ahead of MUS because they beat Liberty Tech by a bigger margin is stupid.

 

Red Robin makes a great deal of sense - and fairness. I think beating S Panola 27-9 and Christian Brothers 45-6 constitutes "significant progress." The MUS team that dismantled the then #1 ranked team in MS is not the same team that got embarrassed in Nashville 7 weeks ago. The AR team that beat them by a TD a month ago in game #3 (an "away" game MUS should have won) is #10 overall in AR, #2 in 5A.

 

As RR said, MUS deserves its "props" - for at least one week. If BA beats McCallie, I have no problem with putting them at #4 ahead of MUS next week. The Owls can and probably will put the "running clock" on its last 3 regular season opponents so those games will mean nothing.

Edited October 9, 2013 by baylorbigdog1976

[WesVLT]

All you know about the MUS-Liberty Tech game is what you gleaned from a box score and a stats summary.  I assure you MUS did not "labor" to its win. 

 

Margins of victory over common opponents generally ARE a stupid means of comparison.  Different factors are in play.  For examples: home vs away game; field type (natural vs. turf); weather conditions; "matchups;" injuries; and especially turnovers, which can wildly skew the final results. 

 

Nonetheless, you seem adamant to let that week 0 win be the ultimate arbiter.  By that marker, then Father Ryan should be ranked ahead of both BA and MUS.  Remember? They beat you!

Perhaps you should read my previous posts more closely. I clearly said that BA's 36-7 win over MUS -- a dominant mercy-rule performance -- carried more weight than a four-point, last-second loss to Father Ryan. I have seen two Ryan games on film and one in person. I have seen every BA game. Based on my analysis of those games, BA is the better team, even though they weren't better that night. Since you suggest that one game should not be the lone basis for ranking teams, then surely you can understand my point.

 

BA was clearly better than MUS when the two teams played; in fact, the Owls didn't manage a point against the Eagle starters. I cannot justify ranking MUS ahead of a team that mercy-ruled it simply because MUS beat a good Mississippi team and blew out a mediocre Christian Brothers squad. There's no doubt Bobby Alston's team has improved, and I expect the Owls to make some noise in the playoffs, but I haven't seen enough to disregard a 29-point shellacking. If the game had been closer, I would be willing to rank MUS more favorably.

 

You are welcome, of course, to feel differently. You know this MUS team better than I do. I respect your analysis, but please know that mine is also made logically and with good support.

Edited October 9, 2013 by WesVLT

[WesVLT]

Given the size of CBHS, they arguably should dominate D2, certainly locally at least.  And they do that somewhat in most sports most years.  Some factors mitigating against domination IMO: baseball players urged if not forbidden to pay football; embarrassingly bad BBall facilities; less than superior football coaching staff(s) although I think the new coach Vogel (from MUS) could turn things around in if they give him support and some time.

It's really interesting to me that CBHS discourages baseball players from playing football, since at most DII schools the opposite would be more likely. I guess it speaks to the power of the Brothers' baseball tradition. I've never been a fan of a coach limiting his players from participating in other off-season sports.

[baylorbigdog1976]

Correct me if I am wrong but are ensworth football players allowed to wrestle ??? I heard not

 

It's really interesting to me that CBHS discourages baseball players from playing football, since at most DII schools the opposite would be more likely. I guess it speaks to the power of the Brothers' baseball tradition. I've never been a fan of a coach limiting his players from participating in other off-season sports.

[RedRobin1]

Correct me if I am wrong but are ensworth football players allowed to wrestle ??? I heard not

Many don't, but they are not precluded from doing so. A recent example is Chandler Telfer. He placed 3rd in individual state championship at 160 last year. He would have started at fullback and played linebacker this year (his senior year), but tore up his knee in the preseason scrimmage at Vandy.

 

Off the top of my head, I can think of 5 Ensworth students who have placed at the individual state wrestling tournament; all 5 were also football players.

Edited October 9, 2013 by RedRobin1

[owlbooster]

Why is conparative score analysis not fair ? If talk of rankings is subjective Wes's analysis is every bit as fair as yours ...a win is a win. Looking at how one team performs versus another is perfectly fine. The liberty coach is on record as saying BA is the best team they have ever played .. Who knows

 

It is good to see mus playing well. I was at the BA game and was really disappointed in what I saw . We need a strong team out of Memphis

 

My issue was MARGIN OF VICTORY.  Both teams beat Liberty Tech.  Had one team lost to them of course it would have some meaning.   Wes emphasized the "45 points hung on them in the first half" and the bigger final margin.  Had MUS beat them by a larger margin would it have meant MUS was better?  Absolutely not.  Had both teams lost to LT, would the team who lost by the lower margin be the better team?  Of course not.

 

I am not saying that MUS is better than BA or that they would win a rematch.  What I am saying is that MUS' recent performance merits at least a one week stay at #4 ahead of BA. I didn't put this forth.  Red Robin did.  I agreed it had merit and fairness.  You can disagree along with Wes.  MUS will easily win its next 3 games.  BA could lose its next 3 games.  At what point if any would Wes finally look past that game on August 20?  Probably not unless MUS was in Cookeville.  

Edited October 10, 2013 by owlbooster

[WesVLT]

My issue was MARGIN OF VICTORY.  Both teams beat Liberty Tech.  Had one team lost to them of course it would have some meaning.   Wes emphasized the "45 points hung on them in the first half" and the bigger final margin.  Had MUS beat them by a larger margin would it have meant MUS was better?  Absolutely not.  Had both teams lost to LT, would the team who lost by the lower margin be the better team?  Of course not.

 

I am not saying that MUS is better than BA or that they would win a rematch.  What I am saying is that MUS' recent performance merits at least a one week stay at #4 ahead of BA. I didn't put this forth.  Red Robin did.  I agreed it had merit and fairness.  You can disagree along with Wes.  MUS will easily win its next 3 games.  BA could lose its next 3 games.  At what point if any would Wes finally look past that game on August 20?  Probably not unless MUS was in Cookeville.  

My subjective opinion is no better than yours - after all, they're opinions. You can argue the basis for my opinions all you want, but they won't change what I think about the merits of these teams. You've spent an awful lot of time on one piece of evidence I said was "small" to begin with. I'll repeat for the second time that the Liberty game was not the primary basis for my analysis, just a nugget of helpful information. Discard that game and we still have a 36-7 game that BA led by five scores until the Owls punched in a TD against backups. You may want to discount that, but it's the best piece of information we have since it directly involved the two teams. Has MUS improved since then? You bet. And my opinion -- my subjective analysis that cannot currently be proven right OR wrong -- is that BA is still the better team of the two.

 

I'm glad you've offered your opinion on the rankings and won't attempt to change your mind. I am not obstinate -- my opinions are subject to change as game results give us a better picture of where these teams stand. We've spent way too much time arguing about something that is fluid and entirely subjective. Your attempt to predict my future rankings should BA lose is unnecessary and incorrect. 

Edited October 10, 2013 by WesVLT

[williamsoncounty]

Another valiant effort, Wes, but Father Ryan is better than Brentwood Academy. Scoreboard says so.