Gerry Bertier's 3A Weekly Playoff Update After Week 7

[ddaddy]

At week 7, there are still 10 teams that are not in the 3A playoffs that have a legitimate shot at still making the playoffs based on remaining opponents assuming that it takes 4 wins to get in. They are:

 

Bledsoe (2-5) and Grundy (2-5) play each other and each should be favored in one other game, so one of these two should reach 4 wins.

 

Douglas (2-5), Fairley (2-5), Frasyer (2-5) and Westwood (2-5). Of the 12 remaining games these 4 teams play, 8 are against each other. Odds are that probably 2 of these 4 gets to 4 wins.

 

CAK (2-5) is favored for 2 more wins.

 

Red Bank (2-5) if favored for 2 more wins.

 

Sweetwater (3-4) the last team out right now with the lowest tie breaker of the 3 win teams, is favored to win 1 more.

 

Milan (2-5) is favored to win 1 but has an upset chance at 2.

 

So it looks like there are at least six teams out today (maybe 7) that could be in. Look for this to go down to the last week and cause major shuffling in the brackets particularly Quads 4 and 2.

Good stuff Coach!!!

[Charlie Murphy]

At week 7, there are still 10 teams that are not in the 3A playoffs that have a legitimate shot at still making the playoffs based on remaining opponents assuming that it takes 4 wins to get in. They are:

 

Bledsoe (2-5) and Grundy (2-5) play each other and each should be favored in one other game, so one of these two should reach 4 wins.

 

Douglas (2-5), Fairley (2-5), Frasyer (2-5) and Westwood (2-5). Of the 12 remaining games these 4 teams play, 8 are against each other. Odds are that probably 2 of these 4 gets to 4 wins.

 

CAK (2-5) is favored for 2 more wins.

 

Red Bank (2-5) is favored for 2 more wins.

 

Sweetwater (3-4) is the last team out right now with the lowest tie breaker of the 3 win teams, and is favored to win 1 more. They would still have a low strength of schedule tie breaker and would be the first 4 win team out.

 

Milan (2-5) is favored to win 1 but has an upset chance at 2.

 

So it looks like there are at least six teams out today (maybe 7) that could be in. Look for this to go down to the last week and cause major shuffling in the brackets particularly Quads 4 and 2.

I think Tyner will be favored over Red Bank. Tyner plays a tough schedule and had to forfeit two wins.

 

Good analysis!

[coach77]

Who do you think will win Quad 4 regardless of seed or rank?. 

 

Anyone with an opinion sound off but give your reasons why you think the team you list is going to win that quad.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

P.S.    I will say right now that I think CPA will win Quad 3 even though are some good teams there in Quad 3.  I think Alcoa wins Quads 1 and 2 and will be in Cookeville waiting on the winner of the Quad 3-4 winner. 

[BIGPURPLEMACHINE]

At week 7, there are still 10 teams that are not in the 3A playoffs that have a legitimate shot at still making the playoffs based on remaining opponents assuming that it takes 4 wins to get in. They are:

 

Bledsoe (2-5) and Grundy (2-5) play each other and each should be favored in one other game, so one of these two should reach 4 wins.

 

Douglas (2-5), Fairley (2-5), Frasyer (2-5) and Westwood (2-5). Of the 12 remaining games these 4 teams play, 8 are against each other. Odds are that probably 2 of these 4 gets to 4 wins.

 

CAK (2-5) is favored for 2 more wins.

 

Red Bank (2-5) is favored for 2 more wins.

 

Sweetwater (3-4) is the last team out right now with the lowest tie breaker of the 3 win teams, and is favored to win 1 more. They would still have a low strength of schedule tie breaker and would be the first 4 win team out.

 

Milan (2-5) is favored to win 1 but has an upset chance at 2.

 

So it looks like there are at least six teams out today (maybe 7) that could be in. Look for this to go down to the last week and cause major shuffling in the brackets particularly Quads 4 and 2.

Garauntee Milan wins at least 2 of their last 3 and not just 1.  May win all 3, but that might be pushin it. 

[coachrus]

Garauntee Milan wins at least 2 of their last 3 and not just 1.  May win all 3, but that might be pushin it. 

You gotta admit though that you are only favored in 1 of the 3. I think the odds of an upset are good, but it would still be an upset. IMHO.

[coachrus]

I think Tyner will be favored over Red Bank. Tyner plays a tough schedule and had to forfeit two wins.

 

Good analysis!

 You may be right. It would either be Tyner or Red Bank but not both. Tyner has to win all 3 remaining games.

[coachrus]

Who do you think will win Quad 4 regardless of seed or rank?. 

 

Anyone with an opinion sound off but give your reasons why you think the team you list is going to win that quad.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

P.S.    I will say right now that I think CPA will win Quad 3 even though are some good teams there in Quad 3.  I think Alcoa wins Quads 1 and 2 and will be in Cookeville waiting on the winner of the Quad 3-4 winner. 

 

Right now I would give the nod to Lewis County and then Westview. If Milan makes it in, they could be a spoiler as an 8th seed.

[coachrus]

Who do you think will win Quad 4 regardless of seed or rank?. 

 

Anyone with an opinion sound off but give your reasons why you think the team you list is going to win that quad.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

P.S.    I will say right now that I think CPA will win Quad 3 even though are some good teams there in Quad 3.  I think Alcoa wins Quads 1 and 2 and will be in Cookeville waiting on the winner of the Quad 3-4 winner. 

 

As far as CPA and Alcoa, you might be right; however, it appears that neither team has played a particularly tough schedule this year. I know everyone thought at the beginning of the year that CPA's schedule was brutal with traditional powerhouses like Maplewood, Giles, Brentwood and Milan. But it turns out that 3 of those teams have struggled this year. Alcoa hasn't really played anyone other than 6A Maryville who beat the snot out of them (but Maryville would beat the snot out of any 3A team). This doesn't mean that they both are not great teams, but it raises some questions.

[alltime]

Right now I would give the nod to Lewis County and then Westview. If Milan makes it in, they could be a spoiler as an 8th seed.

If JCM and South Gibson get in more than likely Milan will not be an 8 seed. 

Edited October 14, 2013 by alltime

[coachrus]

If JCM and South Gibson get in more than likely Milan will not be an 8 seed. 

That is a good point, their strength of schedule would push them ahead of most any other 4 win team (This assumes JCM does not win their remaining games and S. Gibson wins only one.)

[alltime]

That is a good point, their strength of schedule would push them ahead of most any other 4 win team (This assumes JCM does not win their remaining games and S. Gibson wins only one.)

South Gibson has 4 wins and more than likely that's what they end up with! Personally, I think South Gibson ends up getting the 8 seed!

[TnBear]

Who is your picks for each Quad ????