Baylor/McCallie 2004

[walkenvol]

botw - your past predictions have shown that you think these things through. This one is always hard to predict, because the coaching staffs historicly try to outsmart each other by massaging the lineups. If you take the rosters from the GIT last weekend this will be the match ups. The scoring indicates the head to head matches from the GIT or if they didn't wrestle I compared the outcomes with common opponents.

 

103 Doster vs forfeit B6 M0

112 Manson vs Wheeler B10 M0

119 Geismer vs Young B13 M0

125 Carson vs Young B13 M3

130 Cleveland vs Manson B13 M7

135 Leen vs Goss B18 M7

140 Waddell vs Smith B18 M10

145 Doster vs Blair B18 M13

152 Moore vs Manley B18 M19

160 Spitalny vs Scott B18 M25

171 Vaughn vs Hobbs B21 M25

189 Walker vs Rudolph B24 M25

215 Holt vs Green B24 M31

275 Hufstetler vs Moore B30 M31

 

Now consider this:

 

-Can McCallie field a 103 that can be competitive or just avoid being pinned? How about loaning us Ben Johnson?

-Manson will be tough for anybody to beat, but will Wheeler be more competitive with the extra 2 weeks to adjust to the new weight class?

-Young was leading Geismer 2-0 at the end of the 1st then chose down where Geismer exploited his strength from the top position. Can Young stay away from mat wrestling?

-I don't recall if Joe Young wrestled Carson. Even though they finished 2nd/3rd, a pin wouldn't surprise me here

-Cody has beaten Tim twice this year, 10-1 and 6-1. Will Tim get even closer or will Cody pick up bonus points?

-I believe the GIT score was 5-1 Smith

-Matchups can be unpredictable. I wouldn't have expected Doster to have stayed close with Blair, 6-1 I think. I predict the spread to be greater next time.

-Moore and Spitalny might be able to avoid the pin but history is not on their side.

-Vaughn / Hobbs - flip a coin

-Walker / Rudolph - could be the most interesting match of the meet

-Green has been coming on as of late, Holt should practice the bridge.

-Large Hufstetler pinned an undersized Moore. Moore had a 3 week Hawain vacation over the xmas break and his tank ran out. Moore is an athlete with the potential to dominate this matchup if he's prepared. The steady Huff could put him down again also. The second most interesting matchup.

 

Walkenvol's current prediction subject to change:

 

McCallie 38 Baylor 25

 

How about it Deaddux and all you other big red supporters?

[Bluebelly]

Walkenvol

 

I think that your observations are all credible. I'm not sure that your final score is. I'm very impressed with all of the observations on the Baylor McCallie thread. I've yet to read a post that seems "way off". It is particularly impressive, as it appears that some of the posts are from the west and mid-state areas.

 

I think that this upcoming dual meet is definately "too close to call". That's what should make it very interesting. And, why I will start loosing sleep early next week.

[best_of_the_west]

Walkenvol, like bluebelly said, all of your observations are very valid. As usual, it will probably come down to one or two critical matches. If one team takes 2 of the 3 at 171, 189, and 215, I'd say that team has the upper hand. Otherwise, it might come down to the difference between Leen pinning and teching or Cleveland majoring and minoring. It's going to be a good one, no doubt. I'm not out to offend any McCallie people, just give a good prediction based on the little knowledge I have. Hey, what does some Memphis kid know about wrestling anyway, right? Best of luck to both teams. Let me know how it turns out.

[mtnrasslin]

McCallie beat Soddy last night by 1 point. Baylor beat Soddy 40-24 a couple of weeks ago at McEachern. Is McCallie still the favorite?

[Wrestle90]

Baylor wrestled Soddy the first match of the season. Soddy has had a little more time to get better and back in shape. McCallie wrestled a tough match last night. I am not trying to down play the Baylor team, because believe me I know they have a great program and great wrestlers, but Soddy has gotten better as the season has progressed. I thought about this last night after the match, what people would think with McCallie beating Soddy by 1 point and Baylor KILLING them, but then I remembered how bad McCallie beats Soddy compared to how bad Baylor beats Soddy doesn't matter until it comes head to head Baylor vs. McCallie. Teams change their line up, they do certain things, different things. I wouldn't out rule McCallie because of how they beat another team. I would still keep the options open for who will win this dual.

[best_of_the_west]

I never thought McCallie was the favorite, but I think this is one of those situations where Soddy just matched up really well against McCallie, and almost pulled out the vicotory. Baylor had the right kids at the right weight classes to where they could capitalize on Soddy's weaknesses. We definately shouldn't conclude that Baylor will beat McCallie by 1 less point than they beat Soddy by, but this probably helped the big red find some of the weak spots in McCallie's line up. I'm still taking Baylor by 7 or so.

[mtnrasslin]

Wrestle90-

 

Baylor has beaten Soddy twice, the first match of the year on Dec 3, 36-21, and then again on January 3, 40-24.

[Wrestle90]

Mtnrasslin-

I am sorry I am mistaken. I do remember Baylor wrestling them at a tournament recently. But I still feel that the way Baylor beat Soddy and the way McCallie beat Soddy shouldn't matter to see who will win between Baylor and McCallie. The Lineups change, therefore the match ups change. I would still keep an open mind in this match according to this prediction. But thanks for sharing, I am interested to hear what other people are thinking!

[mtnrasslin]

wrestle90 and b-o-t-w,

 

I agree with you. The individual match ups are different in the B-M match and it will be very close.

[best_of_the_west]

Yea, it's not time for the McCallie people to start panicing and the Baylor people to start popping open wine bottles. Just to give an example, Kenwood beat CBHS 39-35 in early December at the Kenwood Klassic. At the CBHS duals, just a month later, CBHS beat Kenwood 42-26. That was directly between the two teams. Surely, it would not be very accurate to judge these to teams indirectly. (By the way, mtnrasslin, I know you weren't trying to do that.) Like I said, I'm staying with Baylor, but it has little to do with comparing duals scores.

Edited January 16, 2004 by best_of_the_west

[RMC]

How about a Baylor - McCallie alumni match up! Maybe a separate team for each decade.

[deaddux]

win or lose somebodies(alumni that is) gonna pop those corks - this should be a great dual meet - there is a lot of respect between and for both teams- this one will be decided by the team that makes the least big point mistakes- in a close one i say baylor +2