East Tennessee Domination

[Solomon]

To say that the East Tennessee teams dominated is a blanket full of holes. As was stated, distribution of the teams has a lot to do with who can dominate. Maryville and Alcoa are definitely in a run of championships, but what about the other teams they play? And where are the champions when it comes to 5A or DII-AAA; i.e. the Big Boys? When you are talking those two divsions, hands down- it's Middle Tennessee year in and out.

 

I even think a more accurate measure would be from where do the teams that play for the championships come from. Mikey65 covered that- Eight teams came from Middle Tennessee, five from East Tennessee, three from West Tennessee.

While not producing champions, the depth comes clearly from the Middle part of the state.

 

Never thought I would see the day I had to do this but..........

 

1) To believe the argument about 5A schools, you would have to believe they are the best accross the board. I've watched plenty of 5A ball in my time there, and I don't believe it is better than 4A ball. D2-3A from top to bottom is, but not 5A. Furthermore, 2 of the last 3 state champs in D2-3A have been non-middle TN teams.

 

2) Look where a large number of the schools are located, especially in 5A. Numbers say depth should come from there. Considering if Germantown has a down year 1 team is guaranteed to come out of Middle TN in 5A because Memphis 5A football is weak. Then on the other half of the bracket you have had the 5A juggernaut in Riverdale for so long. 3A in Middle TN and West TN was faily even until Lipscomb moved-up, and well, we won't discuss what Region 2 has done to everyone thrown at them since the start of the millenium.

 

Not buying the depth argument.

Edited December 5, 2006 by Solomon

[fromthetop2]

Gulp, Sol, after all of this time. . .

 

To clarify my point, the 5A schools are the largest numbers in classification with the largest numbers of players, hence the term "Big Boys." Same with D-II AAA.

Those schools in these divisions who have been to the Boro, at least one each year is from Middle Tennessee. As you know, this year in 5A both teams were from Middle Tennessee, as was the case four years ago. And again, not the Champions-just those teams who make it to the championship game.

 

I was not, nor do I imply, that the best teams are to be found in Class 5A; at least not as long as Maryville, Alcoa, and the like are as loaded as they are, as well as the top guns in DII-AAA. I am also of the opinion that the teams who do make it to the Boro- regardless of classification- can hold their own against any level at anytime.

 

I will concede that among my many arguments on many threads, this one is as subjective as it gets. And, though it is not my best work , I will still dispute the premise of the start of this thread.

[Solomon]

Gulp, Sol, after all of this time. . .

 

To clarify my point, the 5A schools are the largest numbers in classification with the largest numbers of players, hence the term "Big Boys." Same with D-II AAA.

Those schools in these divisions who have been to the Boro, at least one each year is from Middle Tennessee. As you know, this year in 5A both teams were from Middle Tennessee, as was the case four years ago. And again, not the Champions-just those teams who make it to the championship game.

 

I was not, nor do I imply, that the best teams are to be found in Class 5A; at least not as long as Maryville, Alcoa, and the like are as loaded as they are, as well as the top guns in DII-AAA. I am also of the opinion that the teams who do make it to the Boro- regardless of classification- can hold their own against any level at anytime.

 

I will concede that among my many arguments on many threads, this one is as subjective as it gets. And, though it is not my best work , I will still dispute the premise of the start of this thread.

 

Couple of quick points -

 

I've gotten to watch a lot of football in both the Nashville and Knoxville areas of the state the past couple of years, and not just the main ones. I've gotten to watch several different teams and classes play, and I just honestly believe Knoxville area is a above the Nashville area as a whole.

 

Second, I concur that this is subjective, nor is this my best work. And I do believe that the only way to answer it is to cross bracket the playoffs more and have more inner-regionals games. As of now, under the current quadrant system, the only chance you will get for bragging is one game from east to middle and middle to west. Cross bracket it more, and in theory you could see as many as seven games between the grand divisions of the state before the finals (2nd-4th rounds), or if two teams make the semis from the same grand region on one half of a bracket, well, it's be hard to argue then.

[rollredroll]

Agreeing with the last two posts that this issue is very subjective, I'll throw some input into the mix:

 

Regarding the 4A vs. 5A debate, I'd first say that 5A has shown much more parity than 4A since the implementation of five classes in 1993, at least as far as the title game is concerned. With 14 state title games from 1993-2006, let's compare 4A vs. 5A:

 

4A

- 12 different programs appearing (5E, 4M, 3W)

- 5 different champions (2E, 2M, 1W)

 

5A

- 16 different programs appearing (10M, 4E, 2W)

- 10 different champions (7M, 2E, 1W)

 

Secondly, and this an analysis I plan to do in the offseason for prior seasons, here's how the classifications stacked up versus each other this year: link. As I pointed out in another thread, 4A and 5A played 80 games against each other, and the series was tied at 40-40. Looking further at the teams that contributed to those results, the 40 wins achieved by the 5A teams came from teams with a composite record of 257-143; the composite record of the 4A teams that lost those matchups was 174-226. The 40 wins achieved by 4A teams came from teams with a composite record of 282-118; the composite record of the 5A teams that lost those matchups was 131-267.

 

As with any set of numbers, they are subject to interpretation, but it is worth noting that, while 4A did have a .500 record versus 5A in 2006, its wins came against weaker 5A teams as a whole; similarly, 5A achieved the same number of wins with teams that, as a whole, had 25 fewer wins than the 40 4A victors had, and they did it versus collectively stronger teams.

 

I think it's important to look at the composite records of the teams behind the wins/losses - case in point: 3A vs. 4A. While 3A managed a 26-26 tie with 4A, the 26 wins achieved by the 3A teams came from teams with a composite record of 189-70; the composite record of the 4A teams that lost those matchups was 86-173. The 26 wins achieved by 4A teams came from teams with a composite record of 151-109; the composite record of the 3A teams that lost those matchups was 115-144. Long story short, the 3A victors were stronger record-wise than the 4A victors; the 4A losers were weaker record-wise than the 3A losers (translation – I don’t think 3A’s performance versus 4A is as strong as the 26-26 record appears on the surface).

 

I know this is an East/Middle/West thread, but since it has migrated somewhat to a classification discussion, I do find it interesting that 1A blew away 2A 43-25 head-to-head. While I haven't done a similar analysis a la above (5A vs. 4A, 4A vs. 3A), those are pretty impressive numbers for 1A, especially considering the historically strong small privates (CPA, DCA, etc.) are now in 2A.

 

So what does this all say? As far as classifications are concerned, 5A vs. 4A can be argued all day, but on the surface, we have far too many classifications in DI. As far as geography is concerned, the East certainly kicked rear in the middle DI classifications (2A-4A), but there seems to be more parity in Middle Tennessee historically, particularly in 5A. Personally, I think 4A gets too much credit for Maryville’s dominance; or to put it another way, I think Maryville carries the lion’s share of the perceived strength of 4A; I think 5A’s perceived strength is spread out over more teams (at the very least, the title game example above would support such a theory).

 

One note on the privates - Solomon, while two of the last three state champs in D2-AAA indeed have been non-middle TN teams, of the ten title games since 1997, Middle has accounted for 14 of the 20 finalists and seven of the ten champions (and all three Middle teams have won a title). Even adjusting for the slight advantage Middle has with three teams, versus 2 for East and 2 for West (factoring out Briarcrest for a moment since they've only been in for 2 years), I think it is without question that the answer is “Middle” in the large private class over the course of time.

 

One more note on Maryville. Are they worthy of consideration of “best in state – all classifications”? Absolutely; of course they are – this year and many years historically. However, I do think that people generally vastly underestimate DII-AAA (and why, I don’t know, considering DII-AAA’s 70+% historical record versus DI) – not just the teams from top to bottom but the rigors of the travel. I think people tend to imagine a Maryville in a one-game, “winner-take-all” scenario versus a DII-AAA team. I think this is somewhat short-sighted, as the collective strength of the conference schedule, combined with the rigors of the travel, make the makeup of a DII-AAA team worthy of “best in state – all classifications” consideration much more substantive than just the W-L record. The DII-AAA champ at the end of the season is, in my opinion, battle-tested (schedule wise, physically, psychologically) like no other team in the state (of course, one could argue this is a negative for the DII-AAA champ from a physical standpoint, but whichever DI team that would be thrown into the theoretical mix would be subject to the same schedule/travel rigors).

Edited December 6, 2006 by rollredroll

[fromthetop2]

As usual, rollredroll drops a bomb with his analytical prowess. My impressions can be only summed up in the words of a famous beer commercial- "Brilliant."

[STARSNBARS]

I have lived in K'town all of my life and didn't realize you could get from Fulton to Alcoa and maryville in 15 minutes. YOu must be flying... a helicopter!

 

 

Bobby, I agree. Da must of had your momma driving them around on dat fast air boat of hers.

Edited December 6, 2006 by STARSNBARS

[rollredroll]

As usual, rollredroll drops a bomb with his analytical prowess. My impressions can be only summed up in the words of a famous beer commercial- "Brilliant."

 

There are so many debates on this site that are fought with a "just because" mentality (i.e., no real data-driven support of one's opinions other than "it is so because I say it is so"), and personal biases cloud good judgment at times. Of course, I have my biases as well, but I always attempt to provide some form of facts or figures to support my theories.

 

I have posted these numbers (4A vs. 5A) a few times on this site. I have yet to see one counter-argument from the people who strongly insist on 4A's superiority over 5A (could be laziness, or indifference, or perhaps even an inability to dispute hard data, aka "the numbers don't lie"). Of course, I readily acknowledge that one year doesn't make or break an argument, but hopefully we will have some more numbers to chew on in the future for previous seasons that shed some more statistical light on the issue.

[fromthetop2]

I really appreciate your efforts in putting together your research. This makes your- or anyone's- analysis more credible. What irritates me is when someone makes a "definitive" statement and gets critical facts wrong. Or even worse, does not drive deep enough in mining data or evidence-or totally ignores any history beyond the present. Without historical data, you can't show trends, and without trends, you can't show direction. Without direction your argument is lost.

 

The problem EVERYONE has in these types of discussion is that emotion, bias, and regionalism come into play. No one sees enough games in enough divisions. To top it all off, we all think we can break games and players down like college coaches. That is the Biggest delusion!

 

Again, just wanted to take a moment and personally offer you a tip of the hat. You are a well-informed, well-stated, and well-appreciated poster.

[downtownfreddie]

East tenn football has taken over highschool football. The big three in east tenn are just at another level than everyone else in the state. Maryville and Fulton's closest games this year have been against Alcoa besides the Fulton loss to Catholic. It is strange that three schools within 15 minutes of each other dominate year in and year out. What does the rest of the state have to do catch up or is it possible?

but upper east tn is not very good

[youthfootballfan0123]

Didn't Alcoa beat McCallie the last two years (and Alcoa is a 2a team). Wasn't McCallie the runner up in the state this year. I think Knox Powell 4-a avg team at best year in and out beat McCallie in '05. At the top East dominates the state.

[mikey65]

Didn't Alcoa beat McCallie the last two years (and Alcoa is a 2a team). Wasn't McCallie the runner up in the state this year. I think Knox Powell 4-a avg team at best year in and out beat McCallie in '05. At the top East dominates the state.

You got to put some kind of warning up before you say something like that. You made me laugh so hard saying Powell would beat McCallie I almost choked on Buffaloe Wings.

[youthfootballfan0123]

You got to put some kind of warning up before you say something like that. You made me laugh so hard saying Powell would beat McCallie I almost choked on Buffaloe Wings.

Knox Powell beat McCallie in '05 (to my best recall). McCallie won this year I know, but I DO KNOW ALCOA BEAT MCCALLIE THE LAST TWO YEARS. McCallie is year in and out one of the top 3-4 in D2-3a private football.

 

I was saying Knox Powell is very avg and still beat one of the state's top private teams. McCallie is a better program no doubt. Point is at the top, East Tenn is better. Alcoa, Fulton and Maryville to me this year was better than the 5-a champ.