Class 5A Playoff Bracketology

[Guest]

So that we will have a partial idea about how the playoffs will look this year, I've put together this list of qualifying teams for the Class AAA series based on some of the results to date.

 

The number beside each school name is the district of the school. If Week 6 was the last week of the season, there would be 27 automatic qualifiers. Because I don't have access to the "tie-breaking" data, I've used the Strength+Success Ranking to complete the field. Wildcard teams are marked with an asterisk.

 

The list is then broken into four quadrants, which I have roughly done based on districts. The brackets will be constructed for each quadrant with the intention of avoiding first-round games against district-mates.

 

Daniel Boone 1

Sullivan South 1

Tennessee High 1

Daniel Boone 1*

Morristown East 2

Morristown West 2

Seymour 2

Anderson County 3

 

Clinton 3

Knoxville Central 3

Knoxville Catholic 4

Walker Valley 5

Cumberland County 6

Columbia 8

Lawrence County 8

Shelbyville 8*

 

Tullahoma 8*

Beech 9

Gallatin 9

Hendersonville 9*

Clarksville Northeast 10

Clarksville Northwest 10

Henry County 10

Springfield 10*

 

Hillsboro 11

Glencliff 12

Hardin County 13

Jackson Northside 13

Craigmont 14

Ridgeway 15

Melrose 16

Mitchell 16

[RedSwarm10]

Stared at it for about 4 minutes, and it still makes no sense to me other than who's probably going. i didn't see any bracketology in that post. If you could clear it up for me at all, just tell me, if the season ended today, give me 1 or 2 examples of who would play who. maybe it will then make more sense to me.

[Hoganknows]

5A..A very weak division...nice job TSSAA

 

Glencliff, Hillsboro or Centennial going to playoffs with very nice records

[formerblazer]

So that we will have a partial idea about how the playoffs will look this year, I've put together this list of qualifying teams for the Class AAA series based on some of the results to date.

 

The number beside each school name is the district of the school. If Week 6 was the last week of the season, there would be 27 automatic qualifiers. Because I don't have access to the "tie-breaking" data, I've used the Strength+Success Ranking to complete the field. Wildcard teams are marked with an asterisk.

 

The list is then broken into four quadrants, which I have roughly done based on districts. The brackets will be constructed for each quadrant with the intention of avoiding first-round games against district-mates.

 

Daniel Boone 1

Sullivan South 1

Tennessee High 1

Daniel Boone 1*

Morristown East 2

Morristown West 2

Seymour 2

Anderson County 3

 

Clinton 3

Knoxville Central 3

Knoxville Catholic 4

Walker Valley 5

Cumberland County 6

Columbia 8

Lawrence County 8

Shelbyville 8*

 

Tullahoma 8*

Beech 9

Gallatin 9

Hendersonville 9*

Clarksville Northeast 10

Clarksville Northwest 10

Henry County 10

Springfield 10*

 

Hillsboro 11

Glencliff 12

Hardin County 13

Jackson Northside 13

Craigmont 14

Ridgeway 15

Melrose 16

Mitchell 16

 

Wait...so we are in the playoffs and the wild card spot? I take it this is if we lose one more game but win the rest? I'm so dang confused.

[coachfoozeball]

5A..A very weak division...nice job TSSAA

 

Glencliff, Hillsboro or Centennial going to playoffs with very nice records

 

 

5A is a joke! Nice job T$$AA. Our state does not need 6 classifications and 8 state champions. Collect your check and watch ALL the teams with losing records that make the playoffs.

 

The T$$AA needs to be changed. What a joke to even put 1/2 those teams listed into a playoff system.

[RedSwarm10]

Well I'm a Henry County fan, but lets get some opinions. Who are the best teams in 5A besides us? I know we're ranked #1, but who are the other big boys that are gonna challenge us come playoff time? I know nothing of any of these teams, except that hillsboro sucks this year, and that knox catholic is pretty good. i hate this new class.

[kwc]

So that we will have a partial idea about how the playoffs will look this year, I've put together this list of qualifying teams for the Class AAA series based on some of the results to date.

 

The number beside each school name is the district of the school. If Week 6 was the last week of the season, there would be 27 automatic qualifiers. Because I don't have access to the "tie-breaking" data, I've used the Strength+Success Ranking to complete the field. Wildcard teams are marked with an asterisk.

 

The list is then broken into four quadrants, which I have roughly done based on districts. The brackets will be constructed for each quadrant with the intention of avoiding first-round games against district-mates.

 

Daniel Boone 1

Sullivan South 1

Tennessee High 1

Daniel Boone 1*

Morristown East 2

Morristown West 2

Seymour 2

Anderson County 3

 

Clinton 3

Knoxville Central 3

Knoxville Catholic 4

Walker Valley 5

Cumberland County 6

Columbia 8

Lawrence County 8

Shelbyville 8*

 

Tullahoma 8*

Beech 9

Gallatin 9

Hendersonville 9*

Clarksville Northeast 10

Clarksville Northwest 10

Henry County 10

Springfield 10*

 

Hillsboro 11

Glencliff 12

Hardin County 13

Jackson Northside 13

Craigmont 14

Ridgeway 15

Melrose 16

Mitchell 16

 

Since I follow the Memphis area schools, I will take a stab at the fourth quadrant that has the Memphis area schools in it. Hillsboro (HILL) is the only school from District 11. They currently have a record of 1-6. Glencliff (GC), Ridgeway (RW), and Melrose (MEL) all have records of 3-3. Jackson Northside (JNS) is currently 4-2. Both Mitchell (MI) and Craigmont (CR) are both 5-1 and Hardin County (HCHS) is 6-0. Since JNS and HCHS have yet to play each other we will multiply CoachT's 'Strenght of Schedule' (SOS) percentage index times the CoachT 'Schedule + Success' (S+S) rating factor to establish the top seed for District 13. The reslut is as follows:

 

HCHS = 34.1% x 1.341 = 45.73

JNS = 52.8% x 1.194 = 63.04

 

Therefore, the top seed from District 13 is JNS. Since MEL has already beaten MI in head to head play in District 16, then MEL is the top seed.

 

The selection of the overall top seed will therefore be between CR and JNS because the records of GC and HILL do not warrant them for consideration. Using the same criteria used to decide for the top seed from District 13 is as follows:

 

CR = 46.8% x 1.302 = 60.93 ... Therefore, JNS will be the top seed and CR will be the second seed. Using the same criteria to decide between MEL and HCHS for the third and fourth seed is as follows:

 

MEL = 63.7% x 1.137 = 72.43 which is greater then HCHS's 45.73, therefore MEL is the 3 seed and HCHS is the 4 seed. Since the fourth seed will be in the top bracket with fellow District 13 school, JNS, we elect to switch the seeding of MEL and HCHS therefore making MEL the 4 seed and HCHS the 3 seed. The natural selection for the 5 seed would be MI with a 5-1 record ... but they are in District 16 which would pit two District 16 teams against each other in the first round. Therefore, MI will be selected as the 6 seed putting them in the bottom half of the bracket. GC and RW are both 3-3 so using the same crteria as before:

 

GC = 59.9% x 1.099 = 65.83

RW = 50.0% x 0.90 = 45

 

GC is the 5 seed and RW is the 7 seed leaving HILL to be the 8 seed. If there is any issue with MI being a 5 seed despite their 5-1 record can be justified by looking at their [(SOS) x (S+S)] number which is as follows:

 

MI = 30.6% x 1.139 = 34.85 which is lower then GC's 65.83.

 

The resulting bracket is as follows with the first team being the home team:

 

 

TOP HALF:

 

1) JNS [D-13] vs 8) HILL [D-11]

 

4) MEL [D-16] vs 5) GC [D-12]

 

 

BOTTOM HALF:

 

3) HCHS [D-13] vs 6) MI [D-16]

 

2) CR [D-14] vs 7) RW [D-15]

 

 

Again ... that's my stab at it. What do you guys think?

[BurroBall]

Well I'm a Henry County fan, but lets get some opinions. Who are the best teams in 5A besides us? I know we're ranked #1, but who are the other big boys that are gonna challenge us come playoff time? I know nothing of any of these teams, except that hillsboro sucks this year, and that knox catholic is pretty good. i hate this new class.

 

 

In my opinion, unless Melrose or Memphis East are able to knock them off, Henry County has no major obstacles to them winning their first state championship in football in 2009. With the defection of Maryville to the highest classification and HHS returning to being an MNPS also-ran for the first time in many years, Henry County could win it rather easily actually. Btw, this new 5A class will not really be much different from how the old 4A class was since 2000.

 

HHS, Maryville, Melrose, Memphis East, and Morristown West (as well as Henry County and Maplewood more recently) were the main contenders for the 4A State Championship EVERY year. Only Tennessee, Greeneville, and Sullivan South managed to even join the discussion by also making the semifinals during that time period.

 

Now, Maryville and Maplewood are gone and HHS is (unfortunately) likely no longer in the picture for the forseeable future. Ergo, that leaves Memphis East, Melrose, Henry County, and Morristown West with possibly the addition of Knoxville Catholic as the likely contenders at the moment.

[mjuhb]

i don't see hillsboro going to memphis for 1 game or lawrenceburg traveling to knox catholic is insane

[rollredroll]

5A..A very weak division...nice job TSSAA

 

Glencliff, Hillsboro or Centennial going to playoffs with very nice records

 

One year doesn't make or break a classification, but we all read for years from quite a few people how, in the five-class Division I system, "4A is really tougher than 5A". That was hogwash then - a theory based in large part on the success one school (Maryville) - and is more so evident now, given the vast majority of current 5A schools were 4A for years. 6A is the class of current Division I football, just like 5A was the class of the old, five-class Division I football. We have classification for a reason.

 

Making a very minor adjustment for a handful of new schools playing varsity football this year and another handful of schools that had an above-average shift in enrollment since the last classification period, and you have really only one classification that is going to be stronger - 6A. Five classes of roughly 60 schools to six classes of 50-55 schools, and only one class (the old 5A/the new 6A) that , on a net basis, loses relative bottom feeders (although, admittedly, the smallest 5-10 schools in each of the old 5 DI classes weren't necessarily the worst programs of each class).

 

Dilution, plain and simple.

[BurroBall]

5A..A very weak division...nice job TSSAA

 

Glencliff, Hillsboro or Centennial going to playoffs with very nice records

 

One year doesn't make or break a classification, but we all read for years from quite a few people how, in the five-class Division I system, "4A is really tougher than 5A". That was hogwash then - a theory based in large part on the success one school (Maryville) - and is more so evident now, given the vast majority of current 5A schools were 4A for years. 6A is the class of current Division I football, just like 5A was the class of the old, five-class Division I football. We have classification for a reason.

 

Making a very minor adjustment for a handful of new schools playing varsity football this year and another handful of schools that had an above-average shift in enrollment since the last classification period, and you have really only one classification that is going to be stronger - 6A. Five classes of roughly 60 schools to six classes of 50-55 schools, and only one class (the old 5A/the new 6A) that , on a net basis, loses relative bottom feeders (although, admittedly, the smallest 5-10 schools in each of the old 5 DI classes weren't necessarily the worst programs of each class).

 

Dilution, plain and simple.

 

 

I agree, because the old 5A/New 6A has definitely had FAR more parity since 2000 than the old 4A/New 5A. However, I remember thinking several times when HHS and Maryville played that I would have quickly put either one up against the 5A representatives that were there.

[mjuhb]

More logical based on travel

zone 1

cherokee at tennessee

anderson co at daniel boone

sullivan south at morristown west

morristown east at clinton

 

zone 2

powell at west

central at catholic

cumberland co at shelbyville

walker valley at tullahoma

 

zone 3

hillsboro at beech

clarksville northwest at columbia

glencliff at Hendersonville

clarksville at gallatin

zone 4

jackson northside at henry co

lawrence co at hardin co

craigmont at mitchell

ridgeway at melrose