D2-3A which is stronger...East/Middle or Wsest?

[LouPickney]

53 minutes ago, baylorbigdog1976 said:

I think they will need to mix it up more against Baylor. I would bring the throwing qb in from time to time and run wade in a wildcat from time to time as well.

That's what it took for McCallie to beat Baylor, leaning on the passing game after Baylor's run defense proved to be stout.

53 minutes ago, baylorbigdog1976 said:

I don’t think the running back from Baylor will have as much success against ba but who knows - give him a small hole and he is gone. I imagine they may score more against ba but we shall see.

Jordan James is every bit the back he is just different:  he is not as fast but a Brusser. If he keeps packing on muscle that kid will be 5’11 220  by time it’s over with

You think it’s hard to tackle him now. I do believe he will go down as one of the best backs we have seen in the league since chandler / elder but we shall see.

next week it’s all on the line for BA so maybe they will step up since they are healthy and play with more energy.

i did see their D end went down. He is huge for BA so how he is okay.

Considering the very wet field conditions and MBA's underrated run defense, it's rather remarkable that Elijah Howard still managed 114 yards on 16 carries. A special talent even in a division (II-AAA) that is loaded with great RBs.

What's more, many of the top RBs aren't seniors. Elijah Howard at Baylor, BJ Harris at McCallie, Antwan Roberts at JP2, etc.

That also includes BA's Jordan James, who is a gifted sophomore running back, and I concur that he has the frame to add muscle and only get better. Elder/Chandler territory is top tier, and it will be quite the achievement for James if he can manage to reach that level.

[LouPickney]

One week to go until the playoffs. This should be fun.

II-AAA East
McCallie 4-0 (8-1) [vs Ensworth]
Baylor 3-1 (8-1) [at BA]
BA 2-2 (6-3) [vs Baylor]
Ensworth 2-2 (6-3) [at McCallie]
Knox Catholic 1-3 (6-3) [vs FRHS]

McCallie is the #1 seed, meaning they won't have to leave Chattanooga again until the state title game, should the Blue Tornado make it that far.

Baylor is already in, but that was the case even before Friday. They have clinched no lower than the #3 seed.

Baylor will get the #2 seed with a win, or with a loss *and* an Ensworth win at McCallie. Baylor would have the most overall wins of the three teams at 3-2 in that scenario, then BA would get the #3 seed and Ensworth the #4 seed. With a loss and an Ensworth loss, Baylor would be the #3 seed behind BA.

BA gets the #2 seed with a win *and* a McCallie win over Ensworth. BA gets the #3 seed with a win and an Ensworth win (as noted above, Baylor would be the #2 seed with most overall wins).

BA gets the #3 seed with a loss *and* a loss by both Ensworth and Catholic. BA gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* an Ensworth win. BA misses the playoffs with a loss *and* wins by both Ensworth and Catholic.

Ensworth gets the #3 seed with a win *and* a BA loss. Ensworth gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* a loss by Catholic. Doomsday scenario for the Tigers is a three-way tie 3-2: an Ensworth loss, a BA loss, and a Catholic win. Catholic with the most overall wins gets the #3 seed, BA with the heads-up gets the #4 seed, and Ensworth is out.

Catholic will need some help. They need to beat Father Ryan *and* have BA lose against Baylor to make the playoffs. In that scenario, Catholic gets the #3 seed with an Ensworth loss or the #4 seed with an Ensworth win.

And with FRHS at Catholic starting a half-hour earlier than Baylor at BA, I could imagine Catholic if they win watching the live stream from Brentwood (dunno about Baylor, but I know for a fact BA will be streaming the game live/free) to find out whether they will make the playoffs.


II-AAA West
Briarcrest 4-0 (9-0) [vs. MUS]
MUS 3-1 (8-1) [at Briarcrest]
MBA 3-1 (5-4) [vs CBHS]
CBHS 2-2 (6-3) [at MBA]

We know the teams making the playoffs here, but not the order. Briarcrest has clinched a quarterfinal playoff home game. The Saints will be the #1 seed with a win over MUS or the #2 seed with a loss.

MUS would get the #1 seed with a win at Briarcrest. MUS would get the #2 seed with a loss and a CBHS win over MBA. MUS would get the #3 seed with a loss and an MBA win over CBHS.

MBA can't get the #1 seed, and in a three-way tie at 4-1 would actually be the #3 seed (eliminated from the tiebreaker on overall wins, with MUS the #1 seed from beating Briarcrest as that scenario would necessitate, and then Briarcrest the #2 seed with the head-to-head over MBA). If MBA wins and MUS loses, MBA will be the #2 seed.

CBHS will be on the road in the quarterfinals. CBHS will be the #3 seed if they can win at MBA, regardless of the outcome of MUS/Briarcrest. Otherwise, it's the #4 seed and a long bus ride from Memphis to Chattanooga to face McCallie.

[Spartan4Life]

1 hour ago, LouPickney said:

One week to go until the playoffs. This should be fun.

II-AAA East
McCallie 4-0 (8-1) [vs Ensworth]
Baylor 3-1 (8-1) [at BA]
BA 2-2 (6-3) [vs Baylor]
Ensworth 2-2 (6-3) [at McCallie]
Knox Catholic 1-3 (6-3) [vs FRHS]

McCallie is the #1 seed, meaning they won't have to leave Chattanooga again until the state title game, should the Blue Tornado make it that far.

Baylor is already in, but that was the case even before Friday. They have clinched no lower than the #3 seed.

Baylor will get the #2 seed with a win, or with a loss *and* an Ensworth win at McCallie. Baylor would have the most overall wins of the three teams at 3-2 in that scenario, then BA would get the #3 seed and Ensworth the #4 seed. With a loss and an Ensworth loss, Baylor would be the #3 seed behind BA.

BA gets the #2 seed with a win *and* a McCallie win over Ensworth. BA gets the #3 seed with a win and an Ensworth win (as noted above, Baylor would be the #2 seed with most overall wins).

BA gets the #3 seed with a loss *and* a loss by both Ensworth and Catholic. BA gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* an Ensworth win. BA misses the playoffs with a loss *and* wins by both Ensworth and Catholic.

Ensworth gets the #3 seed with a win *and* a BA loss. Ensworth gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* a loss by Catholic. Doomsday scenario for the Tigers is a three-way tie 3-2: an Ensworth loss, a BA loss, and a Catholic win. Catholic with the most overall wins gets the #3 seed, BA with the heads-up gets the #4 seed, and Ensworth is out.

Catholic will need some help. They need to beat Father Ryan *and* have BA lose against Baylor to make the playoffs. In that scenario, Catholic gets the #3 seed with an Ensworth loss or the #4 seed with an Ensworth win.

And with FRHS at Catholic starting a half-hour earlier than Baylor at BA, I could imagine Catholic if they win watching the live stream from Brentwood (dunno about Baylor, but I know for a fact BA will be streaming the game live/free) to find out whether they will make the playoffs.


II-AAA West
Briarcrest 4-0 (9-0) [vs. MUS]
MUS 3-1 (8-1) [at Briarcrest]
MBA 3-1 (5-4) [vs CBHS]
CBHS 2-2 (6-3) [at MBA]

We know the teams making the playoffs here, but not the order. Briarcrest has clinched a quarterfinal playoff home game. The Saints will be the #1 seed with a win over MUS or the #2 seed with a loss.

MUS would get the #1 seed with a win at Briarcrest. MUS would get the #2 seed with a loss and a CBHS win over MBA. MUS would get the #3 seed with a loss and an MBA win over CBHS.

MBA can't get the #1 seed, and in a three-way tie at 4-1 would actually be the #3 seed (eliminated from the tiebreaker on overall wins, with MUS the #1 seed from beating Briarcrest as that scenario would necessitate, and then Briarcrest the #2 seed with the head-to-head over MBA). If MBA wins and MUS loses, MBA will be the #2 seed.

CBHS will be on the road in the quarterfinals. CBHS will be the #3 seed if they can win at MBA, regardless of the outcome of MUS/Briarcrest. Otherwise, it's the #4 seed and a long bus ride from Memphis to Chattanooga to face McCallie.

Do you have the brackets of the seeding somewhere? 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Spartan4Life

[LouPickney]

17 minutes ago, Spartan4Life said:

Do you have the brackets of the seeding somewhere? 

This is per Page 7 of the TSSAA PDF linked below. Please disregard the dated reference to the East/Middle teams that somehow made it in there. We know that McCallie (East #1) will host the loser of the CBHS/MBA game.

https://cms-files.tssaa.org/documents/tssaa/2019FBRegulations.pdf

TOP HALF
#1 East (H)
#4 West

#2 West (H)
#3 East

The winners of these two quarterfinal games will play in the semifinal round, with the higher seed hosting. The winner of that game advances to the TSSAA II-AAA title game.
 

BOTTOM HALF
#1 West (H)
#4 East

#2 East (H)
#3 West

The winners of these two quarterfinal games will play in the semifinal round, with the higher seed hosting. Winner advances to the TSSAA II-AAA title game.

[JRB]

If the season ended today, I think it would look like this:

TOP HALF
#1 East (H) McCallie
#4 West CBHS

#2 West (H) MUS
#3 East BA

The winners of these two quarterfinal games will play in the semifinal round, with the higher seed hosting. The winner of that game advances to the TSSAA II-AAA title game.
 

BOTTOM HALF
#1 West (H) BC
#4 East Ensworth 

#2 East (H) Baylor
#3 West MBA

[PurplePanther]

9 minutes ago, JRB said:

If the season ended today, I think it would look like this:

TOP HALF
#1 East (H) McCallie
#4 West CBHS

#2 West (H) MUS
#3 East BA

The winners of these two quarterfinal games will play in the semifinal round, with the higher seed hosting. The winner of that game advances to the TSSAA II-AAA title game.
 

BOTTOM HALF
#1 West (H) BC
#4 East Ensworth 

#2 East (H) Baylor
#3 West MBA

If this holds true, the MUS v BA would be an interesting game. BC would roll Ensworth who can’t stop the run. Baylor v MBA rematch could be fun.

[nashvillebound]

MBA's loss to a very good Baylor team in the monsoon makes a return for a 1st round playoff a worse case scenario for MBA, IMO. 

If the season ended today MBA would host BA at HOME in the first round....a game they already won a couple of weeks ago. This is the probably outcome (if favorites hold serve) from the upcoming games (CBHS @ MBA and MUS @ BC) this Friday. 

Hopefully no rain will be forecasted for game.

Edited October 27, 2019 by nashvillebound

[TnTxn]

On 10/26/2019 at 10:59 PM, LouPickney said:

One week to go until the playoffs. This should be fun.

II-AAA East
McCallie 4-0 (8-1) [vs Ensworth]
Baylor 3-1 (8-1) [at BA]
BA 2-2 (6-3) [vs Baylor]
Ensworth 2-2 (6-3) [at McCallie]
Knox Catholic 1-3 (6-3) [vs FRHS]

McCallie is the #1 seed, meaning they won't have to leave Chattanooga again until the state title game, should the Blue Tornado make it that far.

Baylor is already in, but that was the case even before Friday. They have clinched no lower than the #3 seed.

Baylor will get the #2 seed with a win, or with a loss *and* an Ensworth win at McCallie. Baylor would have the most overall wins of the three teams at 3-2 in that scenario, then BA would get the #3 seed and Ensworth the #4 seed. With a loss and an Ensworth loss, Baylor would be the #3 seed behind BA.

BA gets the #2 seed with a win *and* a McCallie win over Ensworth. BA gets the #3 seed with a win and an Ensworth win (as noted above, Baylor would be the #2 seed with most overall wins).

BA gets the #3 seed with a loss *and* a loss by both Ensworth and Catholic. BA gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* an Ensworth win. BA misses the playoffs with a loss *and* wins by both Ensworth and Catholic.

Ensworth gets the #3 seed with a win *and* a BA loss. Ensworth gets the #4 seed with a loss *and* a loss by Catholic. Doomsday scenario for the Tigers is a three-way tie 3-2: an Ensworth loss, a BA loss, and a Catholic win. Catholic with the most overall wins gets the #3 seed, BA with the heads-up gets the #4 seed, and Ensworth is out.

Catholic will need some help. They need to beat Father Ryan *and* have BA lose against Baylor to make the playoffs. In that scenario, Catholic gets the #3 seed with an Ensworth loss or the #4 seed with an Ensworth win.

And with FRHS at Catholic starting a half-hour earlier than Baylor at BA, I could imagine Catholic if they win watching the live stream from Brentwood (dunno about Baylor, but I know for a fact BA will be streaming the game live/free) to find out whether they will make the playoffs.


II-AAA West
Briarcrest 4-0 (9-0) [vs. MUS]
MUS 3-1 (8-1) [at Briarcrest]
MBA 3-1 (5-4) [vs CBHS]
CBHS 2-2 (6-3) [at MBA]

We know the teams making the playoffs here, but not the order. Briarcrest has clinched a quarterfinal playoff home game. The Saints will be the #1 seed with a win over MUS or the #2 seed with a loss.

MUS would get the #1 seed with a win at Briarcrest. MUS would get the #2 seed with a loss and a CBHS win over MBA. MUS would get the #3 seed with a loss and an MBA win over CBHS.

MBA can't get the #1 seed, and in a three-way tie at 4-1 would actually be the #3 seed (eliminated from the tiebreaker on overall wins, with MUS the #1 seed from beating Briarcrest as that scenario would necessitate, and then Briarcrest the #2 seed with the head-to-head over MBA). If MBA wins and MUS loses, MBA will be the #2 seed.

CBHS will be on the road in the quarterfinals. CBHS will be the #3 seed if they can win at MBA, regardless of the outcome of MUS/Briarcrest. Otherwise, it's the #4 seed and a long bus ride from Memphis to Chattanooga to face McCallie.

Great, detailed analysis.  Friday night will produce a lot of drama!  A really good team in the East will not make the playoffs and there will be some great matchups in the first round.

One question on your analysis of the East: if there is a 3-way tie for 2nd place at 3-2 (Ensworth and BA win), wouldn't BA be #2, since they would have beaten both Ensworth and Baylor?   

[Booger]

2 hours ago, TnTxn said:

Great, detailed analysis.  Friday night will produce a lot of drama!  A really good team in the East will not make the playoffs and there will be some great matchups in the first round.

One question on your analysis of the East: if there is a 3-way tie for 2nd place at 3-2 (Ensworth and BA win), wouldn't BA be #2, since they would have beaten both Ensworth and Baylor?   

no TnTxn just didnt....Suk Creek Red Raiders new largest favorite cheerleader Sparty ant gonna like what TnTxn just slipped in there

Booger just sayin 

[LouPickney]

23 hours ago, nashvillebound said:

MBA's loss to a very good Baylor team in the monsoon makes a return for a 1st round playoff a worse case scenario for MBA, IMO. 

If the season ended today MBA would host BA at HOME in the first round....a game they already won a couple of weeks ago. This is the probably outcome (if favorites hold serve) from the upcoming games (CBHS @ MBA and MUS @ BC) this Friday. 

Hopefully no rain will be forecasted for game.

I would like to see an MBA vs. Baylor rematch in the playoffs, preferably not in a downpour from the remnants of a tropical storm this time around.

1 hour ago, TnTxn said:

One question on your analysis of the East: if there is a 3-way tie for 2nd place at 3-2 (Ensworth and BA win), wouldn't BA be #2, since they would have beaten both Ensworth and Baylor?   

You're right, it would be BA at #2 with wins over Ensworth and Baylor in this scenario. Good catch on that; I was looking at the overall wins and didn't properly factor the three-way head-to-head. This is all from my broadcast prep for Friday, so I'll have to fix that in my scenario list.

This will easily be the most dramatic final week of the regular season for II-AAA (and the previous II-AA before someone decided eight state champions just weren't enough) going back several years, in large part because the stakes are higher with not everyone making the playoffs.

I wonder if they'll be giving Baylor/BA score updates over the PA during the Knox Catholic game on Friday night. Catholic has to win at home vs. FRHS and needs Baylor to beat BA to make the playoffs. So it will definitely be of interest, but I could see Catholic not wanting anything to distract their players.

[TnTxn]

19 hours ago, LouPickney said:

This will easily be the most dramatic final week of the regular season for II-AAA (and the previous II-AA before someone decided eight state champions just weren't enough) going back several years, in large part because the stakes are higher with not everyone making the playoffs.

 

Totally agree!  In years past, it was always strange playing regular season games to simply determine seeding.  Of course, winning was always important.  But losing may have only meant you had to play on the road one round earlier in the playoffs.  Now, losing could mean you're not even making the playoffs.  

Interesting thought: Assuming Knox Catholic wins and Ensworth loses, the outcome of the BA/Baylor game will determine whether it's KC or Ensworth who miss the playoffs.  Has Ensworth EVER rooted for BA to win a game???  Ha!  (If BA beats Baylor, Ensworth makes the playoffs regardless of the outcome of their game vs. McCallie, right?)

[D23A]

On 10/28/2019 at 9:07 PM, LouPickney said:

This will easily be the most dramatic final week of the regular season for II-AAA (and the previous II-AA before someone decided eight state champions just weren't enough) going back several years, in large part because the stakes are higher with not everyone making the playoffs.

I wonder if they'll be giving Baylor/BA score updates over the PA during the Knox Catholic game on Friday night. Catholic has to win at home vs. FRHS and needs Baylor to beat BA to make the playoffs. So it will definitely be of interest, but I could see Catholic not wanting anything to distract their players.

If home teams want to rattle their opponents (ex. McCallie, Brentwood Academy), this could be an underrated strategy. Each game in the East on Friday night will be interesting in some way or another (as well as the two important West games)