State Meet Predictions

[WestRun.com]

What fun would state meet week be without some predictions. Here's mine:

 

AAA Boys Team Scores

1 Houston 67

2 Bearden 55

3 Cordova 49

4 Hunters Lane 44

5 Brainerd 31

6 LaVergne 30

7 Bolton 28

8 Knoxville West 27

9 McGavock 26

10 Hamilton 25

11 Craigmont 22

12 Franklin 20

12 Riverdale 20

 

Houston is the deepest, most talented team we have seen in a while other than Brentwood Academy. Houston would have won the last 2 team state championships if they would have gotten credit for their athletes who were ranked in the top 8 of the state and just did not make it out to state. I wonder if Colin Abercrombie will run on their 4x800... Simeon Harris of Cordova is a one man show. Bearden needs Bryan Webb to have a good meet to do well. Brenard Wilson is Hunters Lane. Rob Sorrell of Bolton is in a league of his own in distance. Evan Lavin of Knoxville West will be going for a throws double and 60' in the shot put. Michael Ayers of Ravenwood is only a sophomore and will dominate the decathlon for the next 3 years along with gunning for 15' in the pole vault now. Again, Section 4-AAA was the toughest Section to qualify out of.

 

AAA Girls Team Scores

1 Brentwood 74

2 Knoxville West 57

3 Rossview 46

4 Memphis East 41

5 Memphis Central 34

5 William Blount 34

7 Bearden 30

8 Riverdale 29

9 Millington 25

9 White Station 25

11 Red Bank 24

11 Tullahoma 24

13 Ridgeway 23

14 Ravenwood 22

15 Brainerd 21

15 Science Hill 21

 

Brentwood will not score 100 points, but will win again. Lauren Stewart will be sadly missed by everyone next year, especially AAA girl jumpers. It does not hurt that Brentwood is also strong in the distances, although Kali Holtfreter of Hendersonville messes them up in sections. Knoxville West has a freshman phenom in Jackie Coward who will threaten 5 or 6 state records before she graduates. They also have done very well with their distance crew. Rossview brings some sprinters including Lynette Rives and has already ran a state record 4x400. Marissa Harris of Memphis Central will be going for her 4th straight 100 Hurdle title. Aisha Adams of Millington might be the best athlete in the state nobody knows about. Memphis East is still very fast. White Station has 2 of the states top young distance runners in Rita Jorgensen and Virginia Hine. No one section stands out as the dominate one.

[runnerboy]

3200

Rob Sorrell

Clay Hannah

 

1600

Rob Sorrell

Zach Moss

 

800

Kelvin Hill

Rob Sorrell

Michael Billingsley

James Gilreath

 

400

Bryan Webb

 

4x400

Bearden

 

4x800

Houston

[BHSfootball]

 

4x400

Bearden

As much as we would love the 4x400 win, two of our guys are gonna be gassed after the 200m, and the third will be running the 300ih. To break 3:20 after all that would be a complete gut check.

[kenwoodrun]

As much as we would love the 4x400 win, two of our guys are gonna be gassed after the 200m, and the third will be running the 300ih.  To break 3:20 after all that would be a complete gut check.

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Wow, I figured it would be you all and Cordova fighting that one out, I didn't know Ridgeway had a 3:18. That's hauling some serious butt. Everybody will have to get on their horses to run with that.

[BHSfootball]

Wow, I figured it would be you all and Cordova fighting that one out, I didn't know Ridgeway had a 3:18. That's hauling some serious butt. Everybody will have to get on their horses to run with that.

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Well, we cruised our 3:26 to qualify, but I don't know if its +7 seconds worth of cruising. I would be willing to bet Cordova will dip to 3:18. They are gonna have fresher legs, but so will we and I KNOW Ridgeway will b/c they have nobody in anything else.

 

Any predictions on the meet as a whole Kenwood? Congrats to your 4x2. I'll see you at states! You gonna be around for boy's field? You should make your way down to the shot.

Edited May 23, 2005 by BHSfootball

[Joink'n]

The best I can see us doing in the 4x400 is about 3:21-3:23 and that is asking about a second per person. It's very possible for us to pick up some time on handoffs because they were pathetic at Regions, but Ridgeway and Cordova are going to be doing the real battling.

[crusader]

Shotput

 

Corey Moore from Liberty

[kenwoodrun]

Well, we cruised our 3:26 to qualify, but I don't know if its +7 seconds worth of cruising.  I would be willing to bet Cordova will dip to 3:18.  They are gonna have fresher legs, but so will we and I KNOW Ridgeway will b/c they have nobody in anything else.

 

Any predictions on the meet as a whole Kenwood? Congrats to your 4x2.  I'll see you at states!  You gonna be around for boy's field?  You should make your way down to the shot.

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I think Coach Chris's is based on a "form chart", and form charts are meant to be broken. There were a lot of teams like your 4x4 that just cruised to get in and that will be a lot faster in the finals. So we what fit into the form chart as 2 points should really be 6 or 8. That's happening a lot, so the point totals are going to be noticeably different when we do this for real. I think a lot of Houston's success is happening right now as we speak, as they got the motherlode into the decathlon. After tomorrow, it'll be easier to prognosticate I think Houston has the horses, but they can't afford any miscues. I'm definitely going to try to come around for the shot...I need to see that kid from Knox West drop a 60' bomb. I'm still a little depressed our triple jumper would be 3rd in the state and he's not even jumping. He was 3rd in sections behind the 1st and 2nd seeded guys in the state...so I'll have to stay away from the jumps for my sake.

Girls...I know Chris isn't going to like this, but I figure rougly Brentwood 80, Rossview 62, and his girls a close third. For example, the 100m dash...Rossview's studettes seed 7th and 8th. But Lynette has finished 2nd in the 100 for the last 2 years in a row as state, and Trish was 3rd two years ago. Lynette has beaten everyone in the field except for Erica Palmer...so what probably went in the form chart as 3 points for Rossview should probably be closer to 12, even coming out of lanes 1 and 8. Just an example among many that makes this thing impossible to predict. But fun, anyway.

And Chris...awesome, awesome work with results and the predictions. You helped a ton this year. Sorry I'm betting against your girls for the runner up spot Did you figure the pentathlon / decathlon in your predictions. BHS gets 10 and RHS 6 out of today, I'm guessing.

[BHSfootball]

Well if you do make it down to the shot, I'll be the "boy" in the Bearden jersey out there with the hosses.....haha. I'll be throwing discus too. I know I'll be sticking around to the end of the meet also, so if you catch me in person, let me know who you are.

 

Good luck to all at the state meet!

[kenwoodrun]

Well if you do make it down to the shot, I'll be the "boy" in the Bearden jersey out there with the hosses.....haha.  I'll be throwing discus too.  I know I'll be sticking around to the end of the meet also, so if you catch me in person, let me know who you are.

 

Good luck to all at the state meet!

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I just looked at your marks...you are a monster in both throws. Good gravy, your shot from sectional would have won state last year by plenty. A monster, I say. It's also good to have a guy that can unload the shot and also wing the disc. I've known a ton of throwers who are great in one, but just so-so in the other. Must be a pretty good technician to be that solid in both.

[BigDogDaddy]

3200

Rob Sorrell

Clay Hannah

 

1600

Rob Sorrell

Zach Moss

 

800

Kelvin Hill

Rob Sorrell

Michael Billingsley

James Gilreath

 

400

Bryan Webb

 

4x400

Bearden

 

4x800

Houston

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Bryan Webb in the 400...what about John Hewitt from Franklin? Does a 47.99 at Great Eight give him a chance against Bryan Webb?

Edited May 24, 2005 by BigDogDaddy

[BHSfootball]

I just looked at your marks...you are a monster in both throws. Good gravy, your shot from sectional would have won state last year by plenty. A monster, I say. It's also good to have a guy that can unload the shot and also wing the disc. I've known a ton of throwers who are great in one, but just so-so in the other. Must be a pretty good technician to be that solid in both.

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Me and Evan Lavin work out together down at Knoxville Track Club, so we've both learned to throw well together. I know he is hoping to represent region 1 very well, and so am I. I would love nothing more than to see him shatter the 60 foot barrier. I see I've got my work cut out for me in the shot, and the kid from Houston has been a frequent competitor of mine at big meets in the discus over the last several years. I was elated at qualifying with a big throw at sectionals, but I had a 54 footer land literally on the chalk, so I know its in me. I feel like I'm peaking at the right time, so I hope I can have a big meet Friday.