public-private semi's

[lazarus]

following the quarterfinals, in which fulton

(supposedly a closed zone school)

kept the privates from sweeping,

the privates now lead for the year 134-77

their playoff advantage stands at 18-8.

 

4 games this week:

 

lipscum vs dyersburg

goodpleasure vs milan

friendship vs hampton

jackson x vs mt pleasure

 

i am going to stick my neck out and pick

both pleasures, the friends, and the lips.

no sweep this time & a public private matchup in all 3 finals.

[lazarus]

missed my guess. it was a sweep.

 

privates up 138-77 for the year, 22-8 in the playoffs with 2 games to go.

 

goodpasture-alcoa

lipscum-fulton

[1AMAN]

sorry I missed this this week laz...not sure why lol...I would have picked a sweep again though...and ,anyway, think I'll go with that again this week

[Bledsoebtheboys]

sorry I missed this this week laz...not sure why lol...I would have picked a sweep again though...and ,anyway, think I'll go with that again this week

I also missed it this week....I would've picked a sweep also....My prediction for this next week will be 2-0....publics....

[BDURHAM]

Laz,

 

Is the 138-77 the real numbers for the season, or

just the games you tracked? Didn't you get a late

start?

 

Why do you think the privates are so dominant in

the playoffs?

 

Would you say that this properly reflects this

season to date: Privates won 64% of the

regular season games, and Privates won

73% of the playoffs?

 

missed my guess. it was a sweep.

 

privates up 138-77 for the year, 22-8 in the playoffs with 2 games to go.

 

goodpasture-alcoa

lipscum-fulton

Edited November 26, 2006 by StanTrott

[lazarus]

"Is the 138-77 the real numbers for the season, or

just the games you tracked? Didn't you get a late

start?"

 

i went back and picked up the early games.

i would expect that there could be an error in there somewhere, but that is pretty much the real numbers.

 

"Why do you think the privates are so dominant in

the playoffs?"

 

ummmm, they have better teams.

 

"Would you say that this properly reflects this

season to date: Privates won 64% of the

regular season games, and Privates won

73% of the playoffs?"

 

if you are asking about the disparity between the regular season and post season percentages, there are several reasons for it to vary.

..it is probably affected by sample size of 30 games. last year the playoff record was closer to the 2/3 figure, altho i dont have the actual count handy here today.

..the playoff winning % tends to run higher than regular season. as has been noted before, not all privates are the same. they have their downtrodden, rbs/gleason type programs.

..there are d-2 games included in the regular season. except for the magnificent 7, the d-2 schools are not as strong as the d-1 schools (as a group).

 

possibly of interest, i only found 20 d-1 vs d-2 private matchups looking thru this year's data. (not only do the d-1's relentlessly accuse the d-2's of recruiting, they dont seem to be very sympathetic to their scheduling needs)

 

D2-AAA went 2-0 against the D1 privates

D2-AA went 3-6

D2-A went 3-6

 

total record was 8-12

excepting the 7 it was 6-12.

 

the D2 privates would seem to have almost identical success against the D1 privates as that enjoyed by the publics.

altho the sample size is always small, these numbers have been pretty consistently repeated over the years. todays D1 privates even hold an edge in the minute number of playoff games against todays D2 that were played before the split.

[BDURHAM]

Laz,

 

I'm confident that you have posted this figure

in the past, but I cannot find it.

 

What is the hard number of privates in D1?

If you don't have that number, I will compute

it myself.

 

I'm not trying to "dumb down" your research,

but the numbers speak for themselves.

 

Privates won 64% of the games with publics in the

2006 regular season.

 

Privates have won 73% of the playoff games against

publics in 2006.

 

Obviously, a small group "similar type" of schools are

dominating in head-to-head matchups. If privates are

10% of the total schools in D1, and they win 64% to 73%

of the games against publics, then the numbers tell a story.

 

We can all debate the story that the numbers tell, but the numbers

don't lie, do they?

[FadePattern]

Well I have picked wrong all year so I might as well keep it up for the last week as well...

Goodpasture over Alcoa

Lipscomb over Fulton

 

A sweep indeed but in fact it will be private school sweep.

[Bledsoebtheboys]

I also missed it this week....I would've picked a sweep also....My prediction for this next week will be 2-0....publics....

Well I predicted this week correctly.....