District analysis through Week 7

[silverpie]

Terminology note: A "bronze" place is shorthand for one earned by finishing top half of the district within the subclass. In both 3A and 4A, there was never a possibility of too many bronze qualifiers, so this is a guaranteed place.

 

DISTRICT 1

A full-fledged four-way scramble of Elizabethton, Happy Valley, Johnson County, and Sullivan North for the two Three Rivers slots. Sullivan East and Unicoi County must win out and hope for an improbable wild card.

 

DISTRICT 2

Every team is in contention for at least 2nd place in the Blue Ridge, with only Chuckey-Doak and West Greene eliminated from first place contention.

 

DISTRICT 3

Five teams still in the first place race, with Austin-East and Gatlinburg-Pittman holding most of the chances, but outside shots for Carter, Fulton, and Gibbs. Union County has a small chance of getting a bronze, while Pigeon Forge must hope for a wild card.

 

DISTRICT 4

The gold and silver will go to 3A teams, with Alcoa, CAK, and Kingston all having a chance at first and Loudon at second. Scott County and Stone Memorial will fight over the one bronze bid for 4A.

 

DISTRICT 5

First will be decided among McMinn Central, Polk County, and Sweetwater. Meigs County can manage second place, and for Sequoyah, it looks like wait 'till next year barring a massive convergence of oddities that results in no further teams getting to 4 wins in 4A.

 

DISTRICT 6

Brainerd, Central, East Ridge, Red Bank, and Tyner are fighting for the gold plaque. Howard and Hixson can finish second at best, while East Hamilton can only get a bronze place.

 

DISTRICT 7

Bledsoe, Grundy, and Sequatchie Counties are scrambling with Notre Dame for two places, plus a bronze if the Irish get one of the two. Chattanooga Christian will not qualify from the district.

 

DISTRICT 8

Cannon, DeKalb, and Smith Counties are in the race for gold along with York Institute. Livingston Academy can finish as high as 2nd, and even Upperman has a chance at a bronze.

 

DISTRICT 9

Goodpasture has clinched qualification.

Other contenders, all of whom can still win the district, are Greenbrier, Sycamore, and White House. Macon County and Westmoreland cannot get a district place.

 

DISTRICT 10

Five teams still battling for the title: David Lipscomb, Maplewood, Whites Creek, East Lit, and Pearl-Cohn. Christ Presbyterian can finish no better than second, and Stratford can't get out of the district.

 

DISTRICT 11

Camden has clinched at least a silver qualification.

The only other team that can win the district is Creek Wood. Harpeth and Stewart County are also contenders for second place, while Waverly and Montgomery Central can at best get bronze places. For Cheatham County, a wild card is the only hope.

 

DISTRICT 12

East Hickman can at best qualify as a bronze team; Hickman County's highest possible finish is second, and the other six teams all have a chance of winning the district (yes, even Marshall County, although it requires three wins and nine units of help).

 

DISTRICT 13

Contenders for first place are Crockett, Haywood, and Obion Counties, along with Ripley. Dyersburg can finish as high as second, Covington's best shot is bronze, and Gibson County has just the wild card to play for.

 

DISTRICT 14

A five-way scramble for the three 4A places among Chester County, South Side, Lexington, Liberty Tech, and McNairy Central. BOlivar Central, Fayette-Ware, and Central-Merry can only advance as wild cards.

 

DISTRICT 15

Basically, all decided. Kingsbury and Manassas will be the National League's two qualifiers, with their Week 10 game deciding which is first and which second.

 

DISTRICT 16

The Delta League, on the other hand, is still wide open. George Washington Carver will at best get a wild card, but any of the other teams can still finish first.

[DevilMan03]

District 2- Greeneville will take 1st place EASILY in the conference with an easy undefeated record in it.

2nd place is a toss up with everyone else...This is exactly what I predicted before the season.

[silverpie]

Not predictions I was making just saying what's mathematically possible.

[66in74]

Not predictions I was making just saying what's mathematically possible.

 

..........and what is the square root of a right angle hypothenous triangle, tripled, double squared, squared again times 2.3356, times py divided by the lesser of the 2 of a trapazoid divided by 7.366, divided by 3?

 

[silverpie]

Gibberish.

 

Anyway, updating for the Thursday games:

 

District 1 almost saw Happy Valley eliminated--they now need a lot of help, but can still slip through for the district win.

 

In District 8, Cannon County eliminated Upperman from bronze contention.

 

District 9's result, while not sealing or ending any hopes, does make my job easier by ending any chance of having to go below overall wins in the tiebreakers.

 

Christ Presbyterian can no longer hope for anything but a wild card coming out of District 10.

 

With Liberty winning in District 14, McNairy Central was left behind in the district race, and can now do no better than second.

[barb]

Not predictions I was making just saying what's mathematically possible.

Only 1 team is positioned to beat Greeneville for the conference championship and thats an untested Claiborne. I think your math is fuzzy.

[silverpie]

Not predictions I was making just saying what's mathematically possible.

Only 1 team is positioned to beat Greeneville for the conference championship and thats an untested Claiborne. I think your math is fuzzy.

 

OK, here's the first scenario on my list that results in someone else winning:

Week 8: Cumberland Gap, Chuckey-Doak, and South Greene win.

Week 9: South Greene, Greeneville, Chuckey-Doak, and Cumberland Gap win.

Week 10: Claiborne County, Cumberland Gap, and South Greene win.

(Remember, I'm not speaking of "realistic" possibilities, but of absolutely any possibility.)

 

If that happens, there's a four-way tie for the title at four wins. Since no one has beaten all three of the others, overall record comes into play, and with seven wins, Claiborne County and South Greene survive while Greeneville with five and Cumberland Gap with six do not. Then the head-to-head comes back into play, and South Greene wins the district.

 

Welcome to the sausage factory.

 

(In case anyone was wondering, out of the 1,024 possible outcomes of the remaining ten games, Claiborne wins the district in 504 cases, Greeneville in 464, South Greene in 28, Cumberland Gap in 16, and Grainger in 12.)

[DevilMan03]

Greeneville will win the District lol but nice math lol. Greeneville will beat Cd tonight VERY VERY VERY Easily. They cld start second string and win.