Playoffs if they started after Week 9

[ChaunceyGardiner]

Ok, I did some reading this morning over the TSSAA policy and I found some changes I need to make. This is how teams will be placed within a quad.

 

1. If they finish # 1 or #2 in thier district. # 1's placed first, # 2's placed second.

2. Then if you finish in the top half of your subdivision. Meaning if you get an automatic bid in the playoffs and did not finish # 1 or # 2 in your district. Basically where you placed amongst the 3A teams in your district. The only question I have here is are they placed by the tiebreakers or by their finish in their subdivision meaning # 1s first. I placed them baced on tiebreakers because it was not mentioned on how in the handbook.

3. Then Wild Cards.

 

Remember. There can not be district rematches, and the TSSAA is trying to keep district rematches until the quarters. So having said that. This is what I got for the playoffs after week 9.

 

Quad 1

 

1. Alcoa

8. Johnson Co.

 

4.Gatlinburg Pittman

5. Sullivan North

 

3. Austin East

6. West Greene

 

2. Elizabethon

7. Cumberland Gap

 

Quad 2

 

1. Polk Co.

8. Kingston

 

4. Tyner

6. Loudon

 

3. CAK

5. McMinn Central

 

2. Bledsoe Co.

8. York

 

Quad 3

 

1. Smith Co.

8. Harpeth (A new wild card team this week)

 

4. Cannon Co.

5. Pearl Cohn

 

3. Sequatchie County

6. East Literature

 

2. Goodpasture

7. Grundy Co.

 

Quad 4

 

1. Milan

7. Lewis Co. (To avoid first round rematch)

 

4. Stewart Co.

5. Fairview

 

3. Camden

6. BTW

 

2. Mannassas

8. Westview

 

Have some fun with it. This time next week we will be talking about the real deal.

 

 

I'm from East Tennessee, so I have no dog in this particular fight, but I wonder about the choice of Harpeth as the final wild card team.

 

I could just as easily see Jackson Central-Merry in that slot. Central-Merry's record is (district - 3-3, overall - 4-5) in a district that consists of 7 4A schools and 1 3A school. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Lexington.

 

Harpeth's record is (district 3-2, overall - 4-5) in a district consisting of 2 4A schools and 5 3A schools. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Stewart County. Harpeth will receive an automatic bid with a win over Stewart County. It is likely that Stewart County (at 6-4) will still make the playoffs as a wild card team if it loses to Harpeth (which would freeze Central-Merry out of the playoffs).

 

Suppose Jackson Central-Merry and Harpeth both lose this week. Which 4-6 team would you find more attractive? My choice would be the one that plays in the stronger district with potentially 4 4A playoff contestants (Liberty Technical, Jackson Southside, Lexington, and Chester County).

[Gerry Bertier]

Ok, I did some reading this morning over the TSSAA policy and I found some changes I need to make. This is how teams will be placed within a quad.

 

1. If they finish # 1 or #2 in thier district. # 1's placed first, # 2's placed second.

2. Then if you finish in the top half of your subdivision. Meaning if you get an automatic bid in the playoffs and did not finish # 1 or # 2 in your district. Basically where you placed amongst the 3A teams in your district. The only question I have here is are they placed by the tiebreakers or by their finish in their subdivision meaning # 1s first. I placed them baced on tiebreakers because it was not mentioned on how in the handbook.

3. Then Wild Cards.

 

Remember. There can not be district rematches, and the TSSAA is trying to keep district rematches until the quarters. So having said that. This is what I got for the playoffs after week 9.

 

Quad 1

 

1. Alcoa

8. Johnson Co.

 

4.Gatlinburg Pittman

5. Sullivan North

 

3. Austin East

6. West Greene

 

2. Elizabethon

7. Cumberland Gap

 

Quad 2

 

1. Polk Co.

8. Kingston

 

4. Tyner

6. Loudon

 

3. CAK

5. McMinn Central

 

2. Bledsoe Co.

8. York

 

Quad 3

 

1. Smith Co.

8. Harpeth (A new wild card team this week)

 

4. Cannon Co.

5. Pearl Cohn

 

3. Sequatchie County

6. East Literature

 

2. Goodpasture

7. Grundy Co.

 

Quad 4

 

1. Milan

7. Lewis Co. (To avoid first round rematch)

 

4. Stewart Co.

5. Fairview

 

3. Camden

6. BTW

 

2. Mannassas

8. Westview

 

Have some fun with it. This time next week we will be talking about the real deal.

 

 

I'm from East Tennessee, so I have no dog in this particular fight, but I wonder about the choice of Harpeth as the final wild card team.

 

I could just as easily see Jackson Central-Merry in that slot. Central-Merry's record is (district - 3-3, overall - 4-5) in a district that consists of 7 4A schools and 1 3A school. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Lexington.

 

Harpeth's record is (district 3-2, overall - 4-5) in a district consisting of 2 4A schools and 5 3A schools. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Stewart County. Harpeth will receive an automatic bid with a win over Stewart County. It is likely that Stewart County (at 6-4) will still make the playoffs as a wild card team if it loses to Harpeth (which would freeze Central-Merry out of the playoffs).

 

Suppose Jackson Central-Merry and Harpeth both lose this week. Which 4-6 team would you find more attractive? My choice would be the one that plays in the stronger district with potentially 4 4A playoff contestants (Liberty Technical, Jackson Southside, Lexington, and Chester County).

 

That is not how they select the wild-card. It is not like the NCAA tourney. Check this link out and it ranks each team in the class and that is how the wild card teams are selected. http://tssaa.org/footballplayoffs/wildcard.cfm?class=3A

[ChaunceyGardiner]

Thanks for the link! I'll give it a once over.

[ksgovols]

What's helped Harpeth, and rightfully so, is that their 4 non district games are against playoff teams with pretty good records. Three of the 4 are in first place in their classification in their district and the other is in second (as of this week). That prevents overall record from being the end all and teams scheduling weak non district games would benefit over those that schedule more competitive games. The district is what it is. Teams don't have a say in which district they might fall in and how many 4A teams might be in it, but they can schedule tougher non district games if their district isn't particularly strong to make up for it. Both are included in the ranking system. Harpeth and Stewart have the exact same record against district opponents. Harpeth is 1-3 with a challenging non district schedule while Stewart is 3-1 against a weaker non conference schedule.

 

From what I can tell, this is a huge improvement from the past and if they can avoid district rematches until the quarter finals, I'm sold. This is for the most part in line with what you'll find on another computer based rating system that's pretty dang accurate once the season starts playing out. Strength of schedule, particularly out of district should be a component.

 

TSSAA has closed most of the loopholes it looks like to me. What kind of stinks is that Harpeth would be in 2nd place hands down in their old district as they are ranked ahead of all but Fairview who the lost to in a non district game 28-0 and beat the team that is currently in second in that district 56-13. What's cool is they still control their own destiny in week 10.

[FBGIRL]

I'm from East Tennessee, so I have no dog in this particular fight, but I wonder about the choice of Harpeth as the final wild card team.

 

I could just as easily see Jackson Central-Merry in that slot. Central-Merry's record is (district - 3-3, overall - 4-5) in a district that consists of 7 4A schools and 1 3A school. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Lexington.

 

Harpeth's record is (district 3-2, overall - 4-5) in a district consisting of 2 4A schools and 5 3A schools. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Stewart County. Harpeth will receive an automatic bid with a win over Stewart County. It is likely that Stewart County (at 6-4) will still make the playoffs as a wild card team if it loses to Harpeth (which would freeze Central-Merry out of the playoffs).

 

Suppose Jackson Central-Merry and Harpeth both lose this week. Which 4-6 team would you find more attractive? My choice would be the one that plays in the stronger district with potentially 4 4A playoff contestants (Liberty Technical, Jackson Southside, Lexington, and Chester County).

 

 

Should CPA beat PC and Harpeth and JCM both lose this week, the way I read it CPA would leap over both of those in the wild card standings. Could someone confirm?

[ksgovols]

The tie breakers go from left to right on the TSSAA link that Gerry Bertier posted. 2, then 3, then 4 and so on.

 

From TSSAA:

Teams are listed by wildcard criteria. When automatic qualifiers are selected from final district standings the teams that selected for wild cards will come from this sorted list. Labels: 2-Overall Victories, 3-Victores over teams winning 50% or more of their games, 4-Victories by opponents, 5-Fewest defeats by opponents, 6- Victories of defeated opponents, 7-Overall Victories over teams in same class, 8-Victores over teams winning 50% or more of their games for teams in same class, 9-Victories by opponents of teams in same class, 10-Fewest defeats by opponents of teams in same class, 11- Victories of defeated opponents in same class, 12 -Overall Victories over teams in higher class, 13-Victories over teams winning 50% or more of their games for teams in higher class, 14-Victories by opponents of teams in higher class, 15-Fewest defeats by opponents of teams in higher class, 16- Victories of defeated opponents in higher class

 

If CPA gets to the 4 win plateau, they would leap frog more than just Harpeth and JCM. They'd be the second highest rated 4 win team in 3A, right behind............Pearl Cohn. That's a tough district. Being the last team in after week 9 only means that none of the 3 win teams with better tiebreaker numbers can win in week 10 if you want to stay in. If Harpeth wins, they leap frog all of the 4 win teams plus get the automatic bid and Stewart Co. knocks somebody out by virtue of 6 overall wins.

 

It's going to work out. I promise I'm not going to be ticked off this year until after the seedings are announced.

 

Strong work Gerry. It's not as gray as I thought it would be. The teams kind of separate themselves pretty easily from top to bottom. If anything I'm disappointed that total number of wins of any kind have more of a premium than playing a tough schedule, but it kind of comes out in the wash I guess.

[ChaunceyGardiner]

What's helped Harpeth, and rightfully so, is that their 4 non district games are against playoff teams with pretty good records. Three of the 4 are in first place in their classification in their district and the other is in second (as of this week). That prevents overall record from being the end all and teams scheduling weak non district games would benefit over those that schedule more competitive games. The district is what it is. Teams don't have a say in which district they might fall in and how many 4A teams might be in it, but they can schedule tougher non district games if their district isn't particularly strong to make up for it. Both are included in the ranking system. Harpeth and Stewart have the exact same record against district opponents. Harpeth is 1-3 with a challenging non district schedule while Stewart is 3-1 against a weaker non conference schedule.

 

From what I can tell, this is a huge improvement from the past and if they can avoid district rematches until the quarter finals, I'm sold. This is for the most part in line with what you'll find on another computer based rating system that's pretty dang accurate once the season starts playing out. Strength of schedule, particularly out of district should be a component.

 

TSSAA has closed most of the loopholes it looks like to me.

 

I agree. Most of the loopholes have been closed. However, in this particular case, I don't consider Central-Merry's three non-district games to be weak:

 

Haywood County (the weakest of the three) is a 4A team with a 4-5 record

Jackson Northside is a 5A playoff team with a 7-2 record

University School of Jackson is an 8-1 Division II A playoff team

 

What sabotaged Central-Merry's chances were the three weak links in its own district -

 

McNairy Central 2-7

Bolivar Central 0-9

Fayette Ware 0-9

 

The category that puts Harpeth above Central-Merry in the wild card race is Criterion 4 - Victories by Opponents. One would expect the bottom three teams in the average district to have more than a combined two victories. So, in a sense, Central-Merry is being penalized by its placement in District 11.

 

Harpeth's opponents have 54 wins and Central-Merry's have 46.

 

 

I don't believe the argument "Teams don't have a say in which district they might fall in and how many 4A teams might be in it, but they can schedule tougher non district games if their district isn't particularly strong to make up for it" applies in Central-Merry's situation. I'm not sure Central-Merry could have done a lot better in scheduling non-district games than it did by scheduling Northside (7-2), USJ (8-1), and Haywood County (4-5). Those three teams have a combined record of 19-8. That is, unless it scheduled games outside the area, which is one of the things the reclassification hoped to prevent.

 

In summary, I believe Central-Merry is just one of this year's unlucky teams that will likely barely miss making the playoffs because of circumstances not completely under its control.

[ksgovols]

I agree that there will be teams in a tough district that schedule a tough non district schedule that will be penalized. Particularly when overall wins is the first criterion. That promotes wins by any means first. I don't know JCM's particulars, but know that Harpeth chose a tough non district schedule knowing their district wasn't real strong. Stewart County did the opposite and will likely benefit more. 11AA will likely have two 9-1 teams which helps criterion 4 more than the 5 or 6 wins that the bottom 3 in the district contribute. The two teams in the middle, Harpeth and Stewart Co., are exactly in the middle. I think maybe a district that has more parity is penalized in the long run more than a district with one or two really strong teams. The 10AA Nashville district is a good example. There are 4 or 5 very tough teams in that district.

 

The moral of that story is to try to schedule as many wins as you can. Set your schedules early coaches. I'm not sure overall wins is the best barometer and JCM very well might get bit by it just as Harpeth may get bit by scheduling playoff teams for their non district schedule if they don't win next week.

 

Still, if there's not a plethora of district re-matches in round 2, it's an improvement.

 

Question: Isn't criterion 4 and 5 exactly the same? Wins by opponents and fewest losses by opponents should yield the same results for 10 game schedules.

[Antwan]

I'm from East Tennessee, so I have no dog in this particular fight, but I wonder about the choice of Harpeth as the final wild card team.

 

I could just as easily see Jackson Central-Merry in that slot. Central-Merry's record is (district - 3-3, overall - 4-5) in a district that consists of 7 4A schools and 1 3A school. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Lexington.

 

Harpeth's record is (district 3-2, overall - 4-5) in a district consisting of 2 4A schools and 5 3A schools. Its remaining game is against 6-3 Stewart County. Harpeth will receive an automatic bid with a win over Stewart County. It is likely that Stewart County (at 6-4) will still make the playoffs as a wild card team if it loses to Harpeth (which would freeze Central-Merry out of the playoffs).

 

Suppose Jackson Central-Merry and Harpeth both lose this week. Which 4-6 team would you find more attractive? My choice would be the one that plays in the stronger district with potentially 4 4A playoff contestants (Liberty Technical, Jackson Southside, Lexington, and Chester County).

 

 

Should CPA beat PC and Harpeth and JCM both lose this week, the way I read it CPA would leap over both of those in the wild card standings. Could someone confirm?

 

Another problem for CPA is that if CPA does beat Pearl Cohn and East Literature loses to David Lipscomb...Pearl Cohn would get the automatic bid and East Lit. would be the wild card. East Lit. would have the tie-breaker over CPA due to head to head.

[OC55]

South Greene will qualify as a wild card, this should drop Harpeth. Also Oakhaven will replace BTW.

[ksgovols]

Not so fast my friend. If Harpeth wins, they qualify automatically with the second best 3A record in their district and Stewart Co. would get in as a wild card with 6 wins.

 

Lot's of things will change. Some of the 4 win teams will get to 5 wins, some of this week's 5 win teams will remain at 5 wins and some of the 3 win teams can still climb into the playoffs as 4 win teams.

 

Harpeth is the 29th team on that list, which means that there are 3 automatic qualifiers with worse records.

 

Still a week of football to be played.

[Legend]

memphisfootball, I don't no were that manassas info came from but manassas has no injuries!!! lol!!