DIVISION II Traditional Tourney

[smwwrest]

Your question assumes Johnson will wrestle 132.... If so, you have interesting head to heads... Johnson beat Brunner, Brunner split with Westbrooks winning the last match, Westbrooks beat Johnson.... Based upon these results ithe top seed will default to last years state placements therefore Brunner 1, Westbrooks 2, Johnson 3, Akers 4, Olson 5, and Davidson 6. Ghouse pls weigh in on the logic behind this explanation... Barrel

 

How to apply the head to head rules are not specific on 3-way ties. I believe what will happen here is that the coaches will look at the records against each other Westbrooks 2-1, Johnson 1-1, Brunner 1-2. Also Brunner's one win against the other two was also a defensive pin. That said, the Baylor PAC might be able to change this.

[ghouse]

Your question assumes Johnson will wrestle 132.... If so, you have interesting head to heads... Johnson beat Brunner, Brunner split with Westbrooks winning the last match, Westbrooks beat Johnson.... Based upon these results ithe top seed will default to last years state placements therefore Brunner 1, Westbrooks 2, Johnson 3, Akers 4, Olson 5, and Davidson 6. Ghouse pls weigh in on the logic behind this explanation... Barrel

 

 

How to apply the head to head rules are not specific on 3-way ties. I believe what will happen here is that the coaches will look at the records against each other Westbrooks 2-1, Johnson 1-1, Brunner 1-2. Also Brunner's one win against the other two was also a defensive pin. That said, the Baylor PAC might be able to change this.

 

Either one of these two scenarios is possible given the ambiguity in the seeding criteria. In the past I have seen both sets of logic used in the same seeding meeting... not necessarily the most consistent bunch! I would love to see them put some teeth to the criteria for these situations but not sure if that will happen.

 

Barrel, no reason to assume that CBHS would move their line-up... they will not. They needed to settle a few varsity weights at the start of the week but otherwise it is the same line-up they have used all year.

 

The seeding meeting will conclude in a few hours and we will know how things sit after results are posted.

[ghouse]

All right, now that the brackets are out we can do a little analysis for public consumption on things.

 

if the tournament were to wrestle out exactly to seed (we all know the likelihood of this is approximately nil) and given a few assumptions (listed below) this is how the team scores would shake out:

 

CBHS - 217

Father Ryan - 200

Baylor - 187

McCallie - 168

MBA - 112

Brentwood Academy - 74

St. Benedict - 72

 

Assumptions:

- this analysis looks solely at placement and advancement points... no bonus points

- all those seeded for 3rd /4th take their lose in the semi-finals

- all those seeded 5th / 6th take loses in the quarters

 

This shows a fairly tight team race between the top three is possible depending on who over and under-performs to their seeds. Bonus point differentials could account for enough to close the gap between any set of teams in the top 3. It would appear that McCallie is solidly in 4th with little chance to move up or down and a similar situation for MBA in 5th. Of course as stated before this assumes the tournament wrestles to seed which I would all but guarantee won't happen. However, it makes for a fair point to start the conversation around and get any early look at how close things might be.

 

Many times it has stated that the number of byes could affect the final outcome. Doing a quick scan through the brackets reveals the following regarding # of first round byes. There were a total of 38 if I didn't miss any.

 

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 6

MBA - 6

McCallie - 4

Father Ryan - 3

Brentwood Academy - 3

Not showing teams with less than three.

 

Looking at the three teams "in contention" it would appear things are wash between Baylor and CBHS. Father Ryan having three less byes would afford them the opportunity for 6 extra bonus points not available to CBHS and Baylor. It has been said before it would be nice to see the TSSAA balance out the amount of first round byes, which could be easily accomplished.

 

Interested to hear comments from around the state now that we truly see how things are set.

[barrel]

All right, now that the brackets are out we can do a little analysis for public consumption on things.

 

if the tournament were to wrestle out exactly to seed (we all know the likelihood of this is approximately nil) and given a few assumptions (listed below) this is how the team scores would shake out:

 

CBHS - 217

Father Ryan - 200

Baylor - 187

McCallie - 168

MBA - 112

Brentwood Academy - 74

St. Benedict - 72

 

Assumptions:

- this analysis looks solely at placement and advancement points... no bonus points

- all those seeded for 3rd /4th take their lose in the semi-finals

- all those seeded 5th / 6th take loses in the quarters

 

This shows a fairly tight team race between the top three is possible depending on who over and under-performs to their seeds. Bonus point differentials could account for enough to close the gap between any set of teams in the top 3. It would appear that McCallie is solidly in 4th with little chance to move up or down and a similar situation for MBA in 5th. Of course as stated before this assumes the tournament wrestles to seed which I would all but guarantee won't happen. However, it makes for a fair point to start the conversation around and get any early look at how close things might be.

 

Many times it has stated that the number of byes could affect the final outcome. Doing a quick scan through the brackets reveals the following regarding # of first round byes. There were a total of 38 if I didn't miss any.

 

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 6

MBA - 6

McCallie - 4

Father Ryan - 3

Brentwood Academy - 3

Not showing teams with less than three.

 

Looking at the three teams "in contention" it would appear things are wash between Baylor and CBHS. Father Ryan having three less byes would afford them the opportunity for 6 extra bonus points not available to CBHS and Baylor. It has been said before it would be nice to see the TSSAA balance out the amount of first round byes, which could be easily accomplished.

 

Interested to hear comments from around the state now that we truly see how things are set.

 

Ghouse,

Have you looked at the all important potential head to heads for the top 3 team contenders? This will likely be just as important as bonus points.... Barrel

[ghouse]

Ghouse,

Have you looked at the all important potential head to heads for the top 3 team contenders? This will likely be just as important as bonus points.... Barrel

 

I haven't looked at every single head-to-head opportunity as that would likely be overkill. Many of them have already happened and only a small percentage of those are what I would consider true toss-ups. If they are one sided it isn't likely to affect that overall outcome.

 

I have looked at the toss-ups and also the kids who I think may be over or under-seeded due to how the criteria plays out. However, I won't be posting that secondary analysis here as it comes to close to calling out too many different wrestlers on an individual level, something I don't like doing (at least not without factual back-up).

 

The team race will be very interesting to go along with several other individual story lines.

[barbwire]

All right, now that the brackets are out we can do a little analysis for public consumption on things.

 

if the tournament were to wrestle out exactly to seed (we all know the likelihood of this is approximately nil) and given a few assumptions (listed below) this is how the team scores would shake out:

 

CBHS - 217

Father Ryan - 200

Baylor - 187

McCallie - 168

MBA - 112

Brentwood Academy - 74

St. Benedict - 72

 

Assumptions:

- this analysis looks solely at placement and advancement points... no bonus points

- all those seeded for 3rd /4th take their lose in the semi-finals

- all those seeded 5th / 6th take loses in the quarters

 

This shows a fairly tight team race between the top three is possible depending on who over and under-performs to their seeds. Bonus point differentials could account for enough to close the gap between any set of teams in the top 3. It would appear that McCallie is solidly in 4th with little chance to move up or down and a similar situation for MBA in 5th. Of course as stated before this assumes the tournament wrestles to seed which I would all but guarantee won't happen. However, it makes for a fair point to start the conversation around and get any early look at how close things might be.

 

Many times it has stated that the number of byes could affect the final outcome. Doing a quick scan through the brackets reveals the following regarding # of first round byes. There were a total of 38 if I didn't miss any.

 

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 6

MBA - 6

McCallie - 4

Father Ryan - 3

Brentwood Academy - 3

Not showing teams with less than three.

 

Looking at the three teams "in contention" it would appear things are wash between Baylor and CBHS. Father Ryan having three less byes would afford them the opportunity for 6 extra bonus points not available to CBHS and Baylor. It has been said before it would be nice to see the TSSAA balance out the amount of first round byes, which could be easily accomplished.

 

Interested to hear comments from around the state now that we truly see how things are set.

Ghouse,

Based on your parameters, that each seed places out exactly as they are with no bonus pts, I came up with the following scores for the top 4

 

CBHS - 226

FRHS - 215

BAYLOR - 188

MCCALLIE - 178

 

Although we have the same order, the top 2 are well within the always unknown variable for those bonus pts.

With 5 #1 seeds, I see a better opportunity for more bonus pts with FRHS especially thru the qtrs.

 

Also, as barrel pointed out, the head to head match-ups of any of the top 4, could steal away potentially crucial team pts from one another.

It is shaping up to be a barn burner, looking forward to it!!

[ghouse]

Ghouse,

Based on your parameters, that each seed places out exactly as they are with no bonus pts, I came up with the following scores for the top 4

 

CBHS - 226

FRHS - 215

BAYLOR - 188

MCCALLIE - 178

 

Although we have the same order, the top 2 are well within the always unknown variable for those bonus pts.

With 5 #1 seeds, I see a better opportunity for more bonus pts with FRHS especially thru the qtrs.

 

Also, as barrel pointed out, the head to head match-ups of any of the top 4, could steal away potentially crucial team pts from one another.

It is shaping up to be a barn burner, looking forward to it!!

 

It could be possible that I missed something or there were changes in the seeds from when I first completed this. However, what point totals are you using? I have the following:

 

1st - Placement = 16 & Advancement = 6; Total = 22

2nd - Placement = 12 & Advancement = 6; Total = 18

3rd - Placement = 9 & Advancement = 5; Total = 14

4th - Placement = 7 & Advancement = 5; Total = 12

5th - Placement = 5 & Advancement = 4; Total = 9

6th - Placement = 3 & Advancement = 4; Total = 7

[Decoy76]

 

 

Many times it has stated that the number of byes could affect the final outcome. Doing a quick scan through the brackets reveals the following regarding # of first round byes. There were a total of 38 if I didn't miss any.

 

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 6

MBA - 6

McCallie - 4

Father Ryan - 3

Brentwood Academy - 3

Not showing teams with less than three.

 

 

 

I counted

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 5

Mccallie 4

and Ryan - 3

[nashwrestling]

Sure we can all say if the seeds hold true, this is how the scores will end up...BUT it's the state TRADITIONAL tournament for crying out loud! You know there will be some upsets as there are every year. After having dissected some of the brackets, here are some key matches to watch out for, as well as my biased Nash-Purple predictions LOL!

 

106:

Eckhart (FR) v. Murphy (Bay)...Semi final match up where the two wrestlers have split matches so far this year, should play a monumental part in the team scoring w/ the winner getting the bonus points of making the finals

 

113:

Wesnofske (FR) v Santi (CBHS) This is a must win for the bros, where as it won't hurt Ryan as much w/ a loss although, would be a nice bonus to get Wesnofske in the finals

 

120:

Eady (Bay) v Conell (McC) Many would suspect Conell to be a sizable favorite in this quarterfinals match up, BUT the two met previously this year with Conell only squeezing out a slight overtime victory...

 

126:

Watson (bay) v THE ALL AMERICAN ... in a rematch of what was in my opinion, the match of the year... I see Watson taking this one again, NOT going to OT. Watson by 5. Would be a huge win for CBHS though if the team race is close in the finals

 

132: By far the most interesting weight...4 guys that could all win it

Westbrooks (McC) v Akers (FR) Westbrook a favorite for sure, but heck its the state tourney, Westbrook might be feeling pressure his senior year...Akers has been there done that and is looking to regain his title from two years ago

Brunner (Bay) v Johnson (CBHS) Although an impressive win last week for Johnson, it would be tough to repeat and defeat Brunner again this week. Brunner is also looking for his 3rd title, having already one twice. Another must win for the Bros.

 

138:

Marchetti (FR) v Parrish (CBHS) Marchetti by a major decision.

Marchetti v. Ward (McC) Marchetti wins in a low scoring match. Simply too strong for Ward down at 138. Marchetti isn't going to be denied this year.

 

145:

Popp (Bay) v Cosgrove (FR) Could be huge as far as team score goes. Baylor probably a slight favorite in this one, although Popp seems to always lack offense in big matches. Cosgrove could easily pull the upset.

ALL AMERICAN #2 LOL! v Popp/Cosgrove winner CBHS garners their first champion at 145lbs in impressive fashion

 

152:

Would love to see BELLET get his first championship here, although i dont see it.. Cate gets his first .. makes for an interesting team score at this point

 

160: A weight that's truly wide open

Mosely (FR) v Clements (Bay) huge semi final match up, could arguably be the deciding factor of the tournament on Friday night. Should be one fun match to watch!...Winner beats Berz (McC) in finals

 

170:

Walthall (CBHS) v Craig (Bay) Craig wins. Would be a upset to see Walthall in finals...CBHS looking desperately for team points at this point

Craig v. Hooker (FR) .... who do you think??? Bonus points in the finals for FR would be big

 

182:

McOlgan (CBHS) v Bodine (Bay) Bodine by dec. later loses to TJ Holmes of FR in their like 10th match up this season LOL.

 

195:

Fisher takes home this juggernaut of a bracket with only 10 yes.. 10 .. other deadly participants.

 

220:

Armstrong (CBHS) v Seaberg (Bay) quarterfinal match up that is HUGE... i see the winner of this match making the finals

 

285:

MBA v Youngblood (McC)

 

Based on my biased opinions i see this being a two team race. Sorry GHOUSE, that was a great run your boys had in the duals but being an individual tournament...Father Ryan and Baylor seem to be the clear cut top two tournament teams. Each has their fair share of horses as well as overall top to bottom talent. CBHS has no horses besides their two AA's...not enough in the finals to win it. This is the big one boys...The one that matters! Should be exciting any way it plays out. Obviously despite my belief, CBHS is definitely talented enough to win it. I just think they would really need a lot of upsets to go in their favor.

 

FINAL VERDICT: Ryan nips Baylor to win it.

OW: Kaleb Baker (CBHS) -pins his way to the championship

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!

[Decoy76]

How to apply the head to head rules are not specific on 3-way ties. I believe what will happen here is that the coaches will look at the records against each other Westbrooks 2-1, Johnson 1-1, Brunner 1-2. Also Brunner's one win against the other two was also a defensive pin. That said, the Baylor PAC might be able to change this.

 

I believe that the 132 bracket is mis-seeded

1st - the bracket does not even mention that Brunner is a 2 time state champion see http://www.tssaa.org/2011Champions/StateWrestling/DII/132.pdf

How do you forget a 2 time state champion???

2nd - The seeding criteria - is head to head with most recent win having priority. Then if there is a tie (in this case a 3 way tie) you move on to seeding criteria #2 which is last years place in state.

Nowhere in the seeding rules does it say that you can use a combined win loss record as to the 3 wrestlers (as suggested in the above post)

this is why there is 6 seeding criteria rules (the 6th being a coin toss) so there can be no ties.

[ghouse]

I believe that the 132 bracket is mis-seeded

1st - the bracket does not even mention that Brunner is a 2 time state champion see http://www.tssaa.org/2011Champions/StateWrestling/DII/132.pdf

How do you forget a 2 time state champion???

2nd - The seeding criteria - is head to head with most recent win having priority. Then if there is a tie (in this case a 3 way tie) you move on to seeding criteria #2 which is last years place in state.

Nowhere in the seeding rules does it say that you can use a combined win loss record as to the 3 wrestlers (as suggested in the above post)

this is why there is 6 seeding criteria rules (the 6th being a coin toss) so there can be no ties.

 

That is not the interpretation that was chosen by the coaches during the seeding meeting. The ambiguity in the seeding criteria would seem to leave it open to interpretation and therefore you have the seeding that was used. You state the simple fact that it does not state you can use combined win loss record, but the caveat to that is that it also does not clearly state what should be done. I would hope that the DII coaches make a proposal to amend the criteria for next year to eliminate the ambiguity in case of multiple-person ties given head-to-head criteria an an arguement for either approach was clearly considered valid in this case.

 

It is also worth noting that 132 is not the only weight where this occurred.

 

One of the key points to remember here is that the seeding was note done by the TSSAA as DI in but was rather done by the DII coaches in a meeting in Nashville. It is hard to claim that things were mis-seeded when all of the schools were represented and ultimately this is what was agreed upon.

[ghouse]

I counted

Baylor - 6

CBHS - 5

Mccallie 4

and Ryan - 3

 

CBHS has byes at: 106, 120, 126, 182, 220, & 285.

 

That makes six.