REGION 4-4A MUST READ: Complete breakdown of tie-breaker scenarios

[rocketsrule]

I've spent the last hour doing the full breakdown of the tie-breaker scenarios, according to the TSSAA's website. First, the simple scenarios:

If Lawrence beats Spring Hill, Lawrence is the #3 seed and Giles is the #4 seed. Even if Giles were to lose to Tullahoma, it wouldn't matter. This would technically create a 3-way tie for the #4 seed, but Giles would get in because Tullahoma would be eliminated by having a worse overall record (1-9) than either Giles (2-8) or Spring Hill (2-8). Giles then gets the nod because they beat Spring Hill head to head. 

If Spring Hill beats Lawrence and Tullahoma beats Giles, Spring Hill is the #3 seed and Lawrence is the #4 seed (each would have two region wins and Giles would have one region win. Spring Hill gets the #3 seed by virtue of beating Lawrence.)

 

Now for the fun part--and most likely outcome in my opinion--

If Spring Hill beats Lawrence and Giles beats Tullahoma, then there is a 3-way time for the last two spots in the playoffs. All three teams would be 2-3 in the region and share a 3-7 overall record. The next tiebreaker is, "Team who PLAYS the greatest number of teams who win 50% or more of their games." Lawrence AND Giles have both played 5 teams who have won 50%+ of their games. This number will not change for either team because neither team has played a game against a team that has only won 4 out of 9 games thus far. (In other words, every single team that both Lawrence and Giles have on their schedule has either already won 5 or more games or have only won 3 or fewer of their games and thus cannot reach 5 wins.) Spring Hill CURRENTLY (see below) has played 4 teams who have won 50%+ of their games and would thus be eliminated in this scenario. Lawrence would be the #3 seed and Giles the #4 seed by virtue of Lawrence's head to head victory of Giles. 

BUT, Spring Hill has one opponent on their schedule that has not reached 5 wins yet but could with a Week 11 victory--Father Ryan. They have 4 wins, but are unlikely to get to 5 wins because they play Baylor this week, so they are big underdogs. 

 

If Father Ryan were to upset Baylor, that would leave all three teams--Lawrence, Giles, and Spring Hill--with 5 games against teams that won 50%+ of their games. So, we move to the next tie-breaker, which is, "Team with the greatest number of victories over teams winning 50%+ of their games." None of these three teams have a single victory over a team that has won 50%+ of their games (what does that say about how bad these three teams are?). This number will not change because all three of these teams play teams with a losing record in Week 11, and none of the victories that these three teams have so far have come against teams who could potentially earn a 5th win in Week 11. 

 

Moving along, the next tie-breaker is, "Team whose opponents have earned the most victories." This would put Spring Hill 3rd (opponents have won 42 games thus far) and Giles 4th (opponents have won 41 games thus far). Lawrence's opponents have won 40 games thus far. How crazy is that!?

 

So, the HUGE caveat here is that these numbers--42, 41, and 40--don't mean anything just yet. The final opponents' season win total after Friday night will decide which two teams get in. 

 

IF there is somehow a 3-way tie in this scenario--meaning the opponents of Giles, Lawrence, and Spring Hill all finish with the same number of total victories--the next tie-breaker is, "Team whose opponents have received fewer defeats." Now, this is an almost pointless tie-breaker, because virtually every team in the state plays 10 games, meaning that when you are figuring up the previous tiebreaker--opponents' total victories--their number of losses is directly proportional to their number of total victories. So, in this scenario, the results would be the same entering Friday night: Spring Hill 3rd (opponents have lost 48 games thus far), Giles 4th (opponents have lost 49 games thus far), and Lawrence would be left out (opponents have lost 50 games thus far). Notice that when you add this number to the corresponding number for each team in the last tie-breaker you come up with 90 every time? The only way this scenario could possibly break a tie is if one of these teams had played a game against a team that had only played 9 games instead of 10. Spring Hill, Giles, and Lawrence have all played teams who had full, 10 game schedules, meaning this tie-breaker is completely irrelevant.

 

The next tie-breaker? Coin flip. LOL

 

 

[Chiledeme]

I've spent the last hour doing the full breakdown of the tie-breaker scenarios, according to the TSSAA's website. First, the simple scenarios:

If Lawrence beats Spring Hill, Lawrence is the #3 seed and Giles is the #4 seed. Even if Giles were to lose to Tullahoma, it wouldn't matter. This would technically create a 3-way tie for the #4 seed, but Giles would get in because Tullahoma would be eliminated by having a worse overall record (1-9) than either Giles (2-8) or Spring Hill (2-8). Giles then gets the nod because they beat Spring Hill head to head.

If Spring Hill beats Lawrence and Tullahoma beats Giles, Spring Hill is the #3 seed and Lawrence is the #4 seed (each would have two region wins and Giles would have one region win. Spring Hill gets the #3 seed by virtue of beating Lawrence.)

 

Now for the fun part--and most likely outcome in my opinion--

If Spring Hill beats Lawrence and Giles beats Tullahoma, then there is a 3-way time for the last two spots in the playoffs. All three teams would be 2-3 in the region and share a 3-7 overall record. The next tiebreaker is, "Team who PLAYS the greatest number of teams who win 50% or more of their games." Lawrence AND Giles have both played 5 teams who have won 50%+ of their games. This number will not change for either team because neither team has played a game against a team that has only won 4 out of 9 games thus far. (In other words, every single team that both Lawrence and Giles have on their schedule has either already won 5 or more games or have only won 3 or fewer of their games and thus cannot reach 5 wins.) Spring Hill CURRENTLY (see below) has played 4 teams who have won 50%+ of their games and would thus be eliminated in this scenario. Lawrence would be the #3 seed and Giles the #4 seed by virtue of Lawrence's head to head victory of Giles.

BUT, Spring Hill has one opponent on their schedule that has not reached 5 wins yet but could with a Week 11 victory--Father Ryan. They have 4 wins, but are unlikely to get to 5 wins because they play Baylor this week, so they are big underdogs.

 

If Father Ryan were to upset Baylor, that would leave all three teams--Lawrence, Giles, and Spring Hill--with 5 games against teams that won 50%+ of their games. So, we move to the next tie-breaker, which is, "Team with the greatest number of victories over teams winning 50%+ of their games." None of these three teams have a single victory over a team that has won 50%+ of their games (what does that say about how bad these three teams are?). This number will not change because all three of these teams play teams with a losing record in Week 11, and none of the victories that these three teams have so far have come against teams who could potentially earn a 5th win in Week 11.

 

Moving along, the next tie-breaker is, "Team whose opponents have earned the most victories." This would put Spring Hill 3rd (opponents have won 42 games thus far) and Giles 4th (opponents have won 41 games thus far). Lawrence's opponents have won 40 games thus far. How crazy is that!?

 

So, the HUGE caveat here is that these numbers--42, 41, and 40--don't mean anything just yet. The final opponents' season win total after Friday night will decide which two teams get in.

 

IF there is somehow a 3-way tie in this scenario--meaning the opponents of Giles, Lawrence, and Spring Hill all finish with the same number of total victories--the next tie-breaker is, "Team whose opponents have received fewer defeats." Now, this is an almost pointless tie-breaker, because virtually every team in the state plays 10 games, meaning that when you are figuring up the previous tiebreaker--opponents' total victories--their number of losses is directly proportional to their number of total victories. So, in this scenario, the results would be the same entering Friday night: Spring Hill 3rd (opponents have lost 48 games thus far), Giles 4th (opponents have lost 49 games thus far), and Lawrence would be left out (opponents have lost 50 games thus far). Notice that when you add this number to the corresponding number for each team in the last tie-breaker you come up with 90 every time? The only way this scenario could possibly break a tie is if one of these teams had played a game against a team that had only played 9 games instead of 10. Spring Hill, Giles, and Lawrence have all played teams who had full, 10 game schedules, meaning this tie-breaker is completely irrelevant.

 

The next tie-breaker? Coin flip. LOL

WOW!!!! Outstanding breakdown!!!!

[purple75gold]

So Giles gets rewarded for beating two teams that are 0-10.

[govols44]

I guess LC's 3 wins (Giles 2-7, Loretto 1-8, Tullahoma 0-9) is better? Not like you beat a bunch of 7 win teams.

[hogswild]

So basically Spring Hill is screwed unless Tullahoma somehow beats Giles. But stranger things have happened!

 

As disastrous of a year as they have had, if they can somehow get in and be the #3 seed, they could absolutely win a game. Region 3 seems very weak, and other than East Hamilton I would assume SH would have a big athletic advantage over any other team they might play in that region.

[nkh20cat]

If at any point one team has beaten all the others do you not start back at the top.  Part C in football regulations for determining winners.  

  Therefore if Spring Hill won the total number of wins it would go back to the top and Lawrence would have head to head.  

[FridayMainEvent]

If at any point one team has beaten all the others do you not start back at the top. Part C in football regulations for determining winners.

Therefore if Spring Hill won the total number of wins it would go back to the top and Lawrence would have head to head.

That's correct. I have Spring Hill at 3. See my projections on another thread Edited October 28, 2015 by FreeAgent11

[rocketsrule]

Yes, but the whole point of me doing this is to go through each scenario if a tie remains (which, as you can see, is extremely likely).

 

The bottom line is right now Spring Hill is on the outside looking in. Even if they beat Lawrence and Giles beats Tullahoma, they are not in the playoffs as of TODAY by virtue of only having played 4 teams with a 50%+ winning record, while Lawrence and Giles have each played 5 teams with that 50%+ winning record. 

[FridayMainEvent]

We'll see how it falls out

Edited October 28, 2015 by FreeAgent11