Sonny Moore Power Ratings 10-12-16

[jhilts]

OK. Region 1 as listed on CoachT Scoreboard. Chosen Only because it was first.

 

Pretty Smart Computer!

 

Computer                        Actual

DB by 10                             DB by 13

Greene by 28               Greene by 77

Unicoi by 14                 Unicoi by 13

CG by 10                     CG by 35

MW by 23                    MW by 7

Cloud by 30                  Cloud by 32

Happy by 23                 GP by 3

Brad by 9                     HV by 1

SH by 8                       SH by 24

Mary by 40                  Mary by 46

ME by 16                     ME by 17

North by 27                  North by 36

Oak by 32                    Oak by 35

SC by 12                      SC by 16

Hamp by 29                 Hamp by 39

Vol by 29                     Vol by 35

East by 21                    East by 25

Eliz by 41                     Eliz by 55

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2016 by jhilts

[eers]

It's hard when your dealing with a feeble man, they don't remember what fun is like.

Dang, I'm not that old

[coach10ac]

You have 2 and 3 loss teams ahead of whitehaven?? Lol...even if you add in what's been done over the years we haven't lost more than 2 games in a season in ages!!! Some computer

[jhilts]

You have 2 and 3 loss teams ahead of whitehaven?? Lol...even if you add in what's been done over the years we haven't lost more than 2 games in a season in ages!!! Some computer

I don't think the owner of that site gets on here. But, I do know that Computer rankings take more than wins/losses in to account. In 6A, the only teams with losses ahead of Whitehaven are Smyrna and Franklin and those are by 3 and 4 points respectfully. In the overall state ranking Ensworth, Brentwood Academy and McCallie are ahead and have losses. Which of those should Whitehaven be ranked above? That computer, IMO, has it about right.

Edited October 16, 2016 by jhilts

[LazIndexTN]

OK. Region 1 as listed on CoachT Scoreboard. Chosen Only because it was first.

 

Pretty Smart Computer!

 

Computer                        Actual

DB by 10                             DB by 13

Greene by 28               Greene by 77

Unicoi by 14                 Unicoi by 13

CG by 10                     CG by 35

MW by 23                    MW by 7

Cloud by 30                  Cloud by 32

Happy by 23                 GP by 3

Brad by 9                     HV by 1

SH by 8                       SH by 24

Mary by 40                  Mary by 46

ME by 16                     ME by 17

North by 27                  North by 36

Oak by 32                    Oak by 35

SC by 12                      SC by 16

Hamp by 29                 Hamp by 39

Vol by 29                     Vol by 35

East by 21                    East by 25

Eliz by 41                     Eliz by 55

 

LazIndex, same games:

 

DB by 5

Greene by 25

Unicoi by 15

CG by 8

MW by 18

Cloud by 23

Happy by 21

Bradley by 9

SH by 5

Maryville by 33

ME by 7

North by 26

Oak by 25

SC by 8

Hampton by 32

Volunteer by 28

East by 19

Eliz by 36

[jhilts]

LazIndex, same games:

 

DB by 5

Greene by 25

Unicoi by 15

CG by 8

MW by 18

Cloud by 23

Happy by 21

Bradley by 9

SH by 5

Maryville by 33

ME by 7

North by 26

Oak by 25

SC by 8

Hampton by 32

Volunteer by 28

East by 19

Eliz by 36

Very Good! Unbelievable how predictable these games are with enough data. Barring injuries and the occasional upset.

[coach10ac]

I don't think the owner of that site gets on here. But, I do know that Computer rankings take more than wins/losses in to account. In 6A, the only teams with losses ahead of Whitehaven are Smyrna and Franklin and those are by 3 and 4 points respectfully. In the overall state ranking Ensworth, Brentwood Academy and McCallie are ahead and have losses. Which of those should Whitehaven be ranked above? That computer, IMO, has it about right.

[coach10ac]

What else ate they basing it on?

[jhilts]

What else ate they basing it on?

Not an expert, but I imagine they use a formula that takes in to account several factors. The most important would be point margin of game and quality of opponent. i.e. If a team has a close win vs. a winless, low ranked team and lower division team, your ranking will go down despite the win. And the opposite would be true. When a computer has thousands of data points to use in calculations over many weeks, you get very good predictions. That's why SM and Laz Models are so close and are so accurate.

[Swipes]

Not an expert, but I imagine they use a formula that takes in to account several factors. The most important would be point margin of game and quality of opponent. i.e. If a team has a close win vs. a winless, low ranked team and lower division team, your ranking will go down despite the win. And the opposite would be true. When a computer has thousands of data points to use in calculations over many weeks, you get very good predictions. That's why SM and Laz Models are so close and are so accurate.

Does it factor in if starters don't play a 2nd half and could have put up 100 points if point margin is a key factor?

[LazIndexTN]

Doesn't account for that, injuries, effort, and other intangibles. That would be almost impossible to account for with 343 schools. The biggest factor for accuracy of power rankings is connectivity. This means that more cross regional matchups across the state which unfortunately doesn't happen much in our state. I would love it if every team in the state played at least one out of conference game in the other regions (i.e. - team from East plays one team from Middle TN and one from West TN every year).

Does it factor in if starters don't play a 2nd half and could have put up 100 points if point margin is a key factor?

Doesn't account for that, injuries, effort, and other intangibles. That would be almost impossible to account for with 343 schools. The biggest factor for accuracy of power rankings is connectivity. This means that more cross regional matchups across the state which unfortunately doesn't happen much in our state. I would love it if every team in the state played at least one out of conference game in the other regions (i.e. - team from East plays one team from Middle TN and one from West TN every year). This is the reason that you see many teams from East, Middle, and West near the top and people that don't understand will say that it is biased for the West or biased for the East. For instance Greenback ahead of Dresden in 1A or Trezevant being lower in 2A. Edited October 16, 2016 by LazIndexTN