Region 3-5A Playoff Picture

[osunut2]

So with Powell's forfeits, here's a look at the region standings going in to fall break:

1t) Fulton (3-0, 6-1)*

• Remaining games - CC, West, OR

1t) Oak Ridge (3-0, 6-1)*

• Remaining games - Clinton, Powell, Fulton

3) Campbell County (2-1, 4-3)

• Remaining games - Fulton, Clinton, West

4) West (2-2, 3-5)

• Remaining games - Fulton, CC

5) Clinton (1-2, 2-5)

• Remaining games - OR, CC, Karns

6) Karns (1-4, 2-6)

• Remaining games - Seymour, Clinton

7) Powell (1-4, 1-7)

• Remaining games - OR, South Doyle

Pretty simple for CC and West. Win one more, and you're probably in the playoffs. If Karns loses to Clinton, Karns is out. If Clinton loses out, they are out. If Powell loses to OR, Powell is out. Things could get pretty complicated though, if Powell beats OR in 2 weeks:

• Karns and Clinton currently have one region win (Powell). If Clinton loses to OR and CC, the Karns/Clinton loser is eliminated. The winner will finish 2-4 (with a "win" over Powell).
• Campbell County and West have 2 region wins (CC - Karns and Powell, West - Clinton and Karns). That West/CC game will be a key game, since West needs to beat either Fulton or CC to get to 3 region wins. If they lose both, West finishes 2-4, which would tie them with both Powell and the Karns/Clinton winner for the last playoff spot.
• West, Powell, and Karns/Clinton would also have the same head-to-head record (1-1). This is where things get even more complicated.
• Overall wins is the next tie-breaker. In this scenario, West has 3 wins. If Powell beats SD, they would have 3 wins. If Clinton beats Karns, they should have 3 wins. However, Karns could win the tie-breaker with 4 overall wins, if they beat Seymour and Clinton.
• Assuming that West, Powell, and Karns/Clinton each have 3 overall wins, the team who has played the greatest number of opponents who won 50 percent or more of their games is the next tie-breaker. In this scenario, West has 5 (possibly 7), Powell has 5 (possibly 6), Clinton has 5, and Karns has 4 (possibly 5). If Hardin Valley can find a 5th win (they have Bearden, Farragut, and DB left), West would clinch, based on this criteria. (Powell and West both played Halls, who is also trying to get to 5 wins). But if not...
• The team who has the greatest number of wins over teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games is the next tie-breaker. In this scenario, West would have none (possibly 1 - Halls), Powell would have 2, and Karns/Clinton would have none. Powell would clinch the final spot if we get to this scenario.

I will update this in a couple of weeks. Things get a lot less complicated if Oak Ridge beats Powell (since West beat both Karns and Clinton head-to-head).

Edited October 8, 2018 by osunut2

[blazer1set]

All I can say is..... WOW, good job breaking that down!

I don't think the man could have explained it any better.....  

[osunut2]

21 minutes ago, blazer1set said:

All I can say is..... WOW, good job breaking that down!

I don't think the man could have explained it any better.....  

Thanks Blazer. Those 6 forfeits really muddied everything up. Otherwise, Fulton, OR, and Powell would already be playoff bound. The CC/West winner would've clinched the last spot.

After watching what Powell did to West without Frances, I won't count those guys out against OR.

[blazer1set]

12 minutes ago, osunut2 said:

Thanks Blazer. Those 6 forfeits really muddied everything up. Otherwise, Fulton, OR, and Powell would already be playoff bound. The CC/West winner would've clinched the last spot.

After watching what Powell did to West without Frances, I won't count those guys out against OR.

When all the smoke clears, it will be either Fulton, OR or Catholic representing the east.     I am hoping that someone in 5A/R1 can win just one playoff game, but history suggests against that.

[osunut2]

15 minutes ago, blazer1set said:

When all the smoke clears, it will be either Fulton, OR or Catholic representing the east.     I am hoping that someone in 5A/R1 can win just one playoff game, but history suggests against that. 

I still feel like things are pretty wide open, but Fulton and Oak Ridge look like the two teams eyeing Cookeville right now.

Last year, region 2 was very balanced. Every team, outside of Seymour, was capable of winning that region. But this year, outside of Central and SD, region 2 is not very good. Halls, Gibbs, Carter, and Sevier County are not nearly as good as they were last year.

I'll call my shot now. I think both Boone and Crockett will win in round 1.

Edited October 8, 2018 by osunut2

[blazer1set]

16 minutes ago, osunut2 said:

I still feel like things are pretty wide open, but Fulton and Oak Ridge look like the two teams eyeing Cookeville right now.

Last year, region 2 was very balanced. Every team, outside of Seymour, was capable of winning that region. But this year, outside of Central and SD, region 2 is not very good. Halls, Gibbs, Carter, and Sevier County are not nearly as good as they were last year.

I'll call my shot now. I think both Boone and Crockett will win in round 1.

I really hope Boone and Crockett win, but we have been to this dance so many times before and walked away disappointed.     R1/5A is just a very weak conference, so a 5-5 R2 team who has been playing much better competition usually drills us.     I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

[RebelAtHeart]

11 minutes ago, blazer1set said:

I really hope Boone and Crockett win, but we have been to this dance so many times before and walked away disappointed.     R1/5A is just a very weak conference, so a 5-5 R2 team who has been playing much better competition usually drills us.     I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

I think this is the strongest 1-5A has been in a while though... and then coupled with a relatively down 2-5A puts them in good place for post season. 

Knox Central and SD will be tough for region 1 to get by IMO... but that's why they play!

[dawgs82]

Central likes it when people write them off. With the battle that took place earlier in the year, I don't think Fulton has written them off. That night I saw two evenly matched teams.

[osunut2]

1 hour ago, dawgs82 said:

Central likes it when people write them off. With the battle that took place earlier in the year, I don't think Fulton has written them off. That night I saw two evenly matched teams.

I don't think Fulton has written anyone off, but I also think that Fulton looked like a team playing their first game of the season against Central. I think the same could be said of their performance versus Powell the following week.

Next week, we'll find out just how good Central and SD are. I've reserved judgement on those two simply because, outside of HVA, they've beaten absolutely no one this season.

[madhatter2269]

9 minutes ago, osunut2 said:

I don't think Fulton has written anyone off, but I also think that Fulton looked like a team playing their first game of the season against Central. I think the same could be said of their performance versus Powell the following week.

Next week, we'll find out just how good Central and SD are. I've reserved judgement on those two simply because, outside of HVA, they've beaten absolutely no one this season.

who’s Powell beat?

[osunut2]

44 minutes ago, madhatter2269 said:

who’s Powell beat?

Never said Powell had beaten anyone. I think the same thing could be said about them. We'll find out a lot about Powell when they play OR and SD.

Edited October 9, 2018 by osunut2

[RebelAtHeart]

5A is exciting because you don't have a Greenback, Alcoa, Greeneville, or Maryville staring you down in the east.  In 1A, 3A, 4A, and 6A your reward for making the playoffs is to get bashed by one of these legacy powerhouses.  At least in 5A - this year anyway - the field is a little more even.  From the east I could see Crockett, Tenn High, Boone, Knox Central, South Doyle, Fulton, Oak Ridge, or Catholic pushing through to Cookeville.  Powell would likely be in the mix if not for the elgibility-gate that set them back.  I think it will definitely make the post season more competitive and fun to watch.