Region 3-5A Playoff Picture

[dawgs82]

I agree!

[Laneman36]

On 10/8/2018 at 9:57 AM, blazer1set said:

I really hope Boone and Crockett win, but we have been to this dance so many times before and walked away disappointed.     R1/5A is just a very weak conference, so a 5-5 R2 team who has been playing much better competition usually drills us.     I guess we'll see in a few weeks.

So in your opinion why is 1-5A so "weak"? What do you think there largest hurdle is when playoff time comes? There are tough teams in the East to schedule to get them ready for playoff time.

[blazer1set]

30 minutes ago, Laneman36 said:

So in your opinion why is 1-5A so "weak"? What do you think there largest hurdle is when playoff time comes? There are tough teams in the East to schedule to get them ready for playoff time.

Really going by history as much as anything.    R1/5A teams tend to put together good regular season records but then go one-and-done in the playoffs.    It has happened over and over and over.   Yes, an occasional exception like 2009 Boone and Tennessee High, but that is way outside the norm.

As to scheduling tough games to get ready for the playoffs, I don't know how much that helps if you just don't have the athletes to compete outside the Tri-cities.    R1/5A teams tend to have pretty good skill players but the biggest difference I see year in and year out is in the trenches....  Our guys just end up getting shoved around on the line and more so as the game progresses.   Every year it is the same thing.  I just don't think Tri-cities teams are serious about conditioning.   Nobody would love to see that change this year more than me, but history suggests that it just isn't going to happen.     I am still predicting all R1/5A schools to start basketball season Nov 3.     Guess we'll see in a few weeks....

[Laneman36]

2 minutes ago, blazer1set said:

Really going by history as much as anything.    R1/5A teams tend to put together good regular season records but then go one-and-done in the playoffs.    It has happened over and over and over.   Yes, an occasional exception like 2009 Boone and Tennessee High, but that is way outside the norm.

As to scheduling tough games to get ready for the playoffs, I don't know how much that helps if you just don't have the athletes to compete outside the Tri-cities.    R1/5A teams tend to have pretty good skill players but the biggest difference I see year in and year out is in the trenches....  Our guys just end up getting shoved around on the line and more so as the game progresses.   Every year it is the same thing.  I just don't think Tri-cities teams are serious about conditioning.   Nobody would love to see that change this year more than me, but history suggests that it just isn't going to happen.     I am still predicting all R1/5A schools to start basketball season Nov 3.     Guess we'll see in a few weeks....

I've often wondered if that was the case "the conditioning factor".  Every Saturday I wake up and watch sport news from around the state (starting with the Tri-Cities) and I just have never understood the lack of competition. I do see that there are a lot of smaller schools, and I take take it that VA high school in that area is not very competitive. So I wondered if you put a coach who truly understood the importance of conditioning (and truly had the knowledge) would that possibly change the fortune for a 1-5A team. For instance there are 2 high schools in Morristown and you are telling me that they both can't be powers in their respective classifications.

[ObserverSD]

We have played Tennessee High 2 out of the last 4 years at the Castle. They were huge on the line.  

I didn’t think we had a chance. I don’t know what the issue was.  

[osunut2]

31 minutes ago, blazer1set said:

Really going by history as much as anything.    R1/5A teams tend to put together good regular season records but then go one-and-done in the playoffs.    It has happened over and over and over.   Yes, an occasional exception like 2009 Boone and Tennessee High, but that is way outside the norm.

As to scheduling tough games to get ready for the playoffs, I don't know how much that helps if you just don't have the athletes to compete outside the Tri-cities.    R1/5A teams tend to have pretty good skill players but the biggest difference I see year in and year out is in the trenches....  Our guys just end up getting shoved around on the line and more so as the game progresses.   Every year it is the same thing.  I just don't think Tri-cities teams are serious about conditioning.   Nobody would love to see that change this year more than me, but history suggests that it just isn't going to happen.     I am still predicting all R1/5A schools to start basketball season Nov 3.     Guess we'll see in a few weeks.... 

I agree with a lot of your points, Blazer. I also think that Knox-area football has gotten more competitive in recent years, so that hasn't helped. The big schools like Farragut and Bearden have improved tremendously in the last decade. Granted, some teams have regressed (I'm looking at you Halls), but they've been replaced by teams like West, Gibbs, and South Doyle who've become very competitive. Plus, you still have the usual contenders like Fulton, Central, AE, Powell, and the private schools.

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by osunut2

[dawgs82]

Speed, speed and more speed! Every team has a few players they consider to have speed. (better than average speed). But when you start running into teams that (as is the case with a lot of Knoxville area teams) put player after player out there with speed, it produces mismatches.

[osunut2]

Updated standings. No major changes this week, as everyone held serve. That OR-Powell game is going to be interesting:

1t) Fulton (4-0, 7-1)*

• Remaining games - West, OR

1t) Oak Ridge (4-0, 7-1)*

• Remaining games - Powell, Fulton

3t) Campbell County (2-2, 4-4)

• Remaining games - Clinton, West

3t) West (2-2, 3-5)

• Remaining games - Fulton, CC

5) Clinton (1-3, 2-6)

• Remaining games - CC, Karns

6) Karns (1-4, 2-6)

• Remaining games - Seymour, Clinton

7) Powell (1-4, 1-7)

• Remaining games - OR, South Doyle

Edited October 14, 2018 by osunut2

[osunut2]

Forgot to add this dialog from the Powell-OR thread. HVA's win over DB last week likely ended the Powell's playoff hopes. See the explanation below. OR and Fulton are already in, so I'll ignore them.

Pretty simple for CC and West. Win one more, and you're in the playoffs (assuming Clinton doesn't win out). If Karns loses to Clinton, Karns is out. If Clinton loses out, they are out. If Powell loses to OR, Powell is out. Things could get pretty complicated though, if Powell beats OR...

• Karns and Clinton currently have one region "win" (Powell). If Clinton loses to CC, the Karns/Clinton loser is eliminated. The winner will finish 2-4 (with a "win" over Powell).
• Campbell County and West currently have 2 region wins (CC - Karns and Powell, West - Clinton and Karns). That West/CC game will be the key game; West needs to beat CC to get to 3 region wins. Otherwise, West finishes 2-4, which would tie them with both Powell and the Karns/Clinton winner for 4th in the region.
• West, Powell, and the Karns/Clinton winner would also have the same head-to-head record (1-1), which is the first tie-breaker. This is where things get even more complicated.
• Overall wins is the next tie-breaker. In this scenario, West has 3 wins. If Powell beats SD, they would have 3 wins. If Clinton beats Karns, they would have 3 wins. However, if Karns beats Clinton, they could win the tie-breaker with 4 overall wins (if they beat Seymour this week).
• Assuming that West, Powell, and the Karns/Clinton winner each have 3 overall wins, the team who has played the greatest number of opponents who've won 50 percent or more of their games is the next tie-breaker. UPDATED - In this scenario, West would win the tie-breaker, with 5 and up to 7 (Bearden, HVA, OR, Farragut, Fulton, CC*, Halls*), Powell has 4 and can only get to 6 (Fulton, Lenoir City, OR, SD, CC*, Halls*), Clinton has 4 and can only get to 5 (AC, Central, Fulton, OR, CC*), and Karns has 3 and can only get to 5 (Cocke Co, Fulton, OR, CC*, Halls*).

Because of that HVA win on Friday night, I don't think Powell can advance. The remaining teams are still alive.

[osunut2]

Pretty simple now...

• Powell is out. Karns is out.
• Fulton/OR winner is the champ, loser is the runner up.
• If Clinton beats Karns, they are in. Lose and they are out.
• CC/West winner is in.
  • If West and Clinton win, West is #3, Clinton is #4.
  • If West and Karns win, West is #3, CC should be #4 (three-way tie for 4th, CC wins deep-tie breaker).
  • If CC and Clinton win, Clinton is #3, CC is #4.
  • If CC and Karns win, CC is #3, West is #4.