DII, what will happen?

[BigG]

I think Catholic is getting the job done around here. I would be very dissappointed if they didn't go far. Good job on the win last night, Hoya!

[lcsoccer]

Watch out for Knox Catholic. I predict they will win the East Region. CBHS, MUS, and Father Ryan are other teams I think have a good shot at the title. Good luck to all.

[goo]

#5 BA over #4 USN

 

Consolation:

#3 MBA over #5 BA (this will be the best game of the tourny)

 

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a lot of your predictions seem good. coupla questions, though.

im a little curious about ba in this bracket.

 

to begin, why ba over usn?

counterpoint 1:

although in their first meeting, ba dominated the first half (though i have heard that the usn bus was late. true anyone?) i also heard that usn made a convincing case in the second half that they were the stronger side. the game turned out to be a tie 1-1.

counterpoint 2:

in other region play, usn:

-tied MBA who dismantled BA

-gave BGA a closer game than BA

-although folded completely against FRHS, who BA played tough

-both tied JPII

- this seems to indicated a slight advantage to usn

counterpoint 3:

performance since that game:

ba: 2-6-2 and hume fogg game

usn: 3-3-5 and dca game

again advantage to usn, again not large

other evidence (unsure how to weight):

ba had a harder schedule, (main difference = playing some of the best of AAA)...

...but lost all of those games (except centennial) including Ravenwood, whom usn tied twice

 

both teams have thus far underperformed and both have the potential to play much better than they have, but what gives ba the upper hand where season results point slightly the other way?

 

second question:

why would a ba v. mba game be the best of the tourney?

ba's strength has been it's d, and glaser, richardson, and darsinos had their way with that unit last time the teams played. MBA has also had a significantly better season (tired of looking up specific games) than ba thus far and momentum going into the tourney would also be on the side of the big red.

 

third question:

if usn instead of ba faced mba, would that then be the best match of the tourney?

food for thought:

-first meeting: 0-0 tie, though mba outshot usn something like 15-5

-mba better in region: beat ba and jpII, teams that usn struggled with, and has chance at father ryan friday. usn lost to bga by only one, where mba lost by two.

-usn convincingly beat FRA, who recently handed mba an 0-2 loss

-recently this has been one of the more intense soccer rivalries in dII middle

 

 

 

look forward to anyone's thoughts on above.

Edited May 3, 2005 by goo

[nickforte4261]

a lot of your predictions seem good. coupla questions, though.

im a little curious about ba in this bracket.

 

to begin, why ba over usn?

counterpoint 1:

although in their first meeting, ba dominated the first half (though i have heard  that the usn bus was late. true anyone?) i also heard that usn made a convincing case in the second half that they were the stronger side. the game turned out to be a tie 1-1.

counterpoint 2:

in other region play, usn:

-tied MBA who dismantled BA

-gave BGA a closer game than BA

-although folded completely against FRHS, who BA played tough

-both tied JPII

- this seems to indicated a slight advantage to usn

counterpoint 3:

performance since that game:

ba: 2-6-2 and hume fogg game

usn: 3-3-5 and dca game

again advantage to usn, again not large

other evidence (unsure how to weight):

ba had a harder schedule, (main difference = playing some of the best of AAA)...

...but lost all of those games (except centennial) including Ravenwood, whom usn tied twice

 

both teams have thus far underperformed and both have the potential to play much better than they have, but what gives ba the upper hand where season results point slightly the other way?

 

second question:

why would a ba v. mba game be the best of the tourney?

ba's strength has been it's d, and glaser, richardson, and darsinos had their way with that unit last time the teams played. MBA has also had a significantly better season (tired of looking up specific games) than ba thus far and momentum going into the tourney would also be on the side of the big red.

 

third question:

if usn instead of ba faced mba, would that then be the best match of the tourney?

food for thought:

-first meeting: 0-0 tie, though mba outshot usn something like 15-5

-mba better in region: beat ba and jpII, teams that usn struggled with, and has chance at father ryan friday. usn lost to bga by only one, where mba lost by two.

-usn convincingly beat FRA, who recently handed mba an 0-2 loss

-recently this has been one of the more intense soccer rivalries in dII middle

look forward to anyone's thoughts on above.

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I think you have some good insight, but i agree with natural spring water, that BA will be beat USN. Here are my arguements. USN has not played nearly the schedule that BA has played, and BA has been playing teams very tough. The first meeting was dominated by BA the entire first half and then was fairly even for the first part of the second with USN dominating at the end, getting there goal off of a free kick. Also BA played USN with fuchs in goal, he is now out, that i believe will play a huge part. Also BA finally has offense going, yesterday they got off 28 shots against webb. I know that it is Webb, but 28 shots is still quite a few, granted only 2 went in, but still i feel if the put pressure on the USN keeper they will win. And as far as when BA played MBA, you say that they got anialted, which the score says (3-0). However if you recall or where there, that game was played on the first day of spring break, the mind of the team was nowhere near the field. Also, if you were there, you saw that the BA coach made a statement by pulling 8 of his starters 15 minutes into the game and not putting them back in until late in the second half, because he felt like they werent playing up to there ability. That game is hard to judge. I say that the BA MBA game will be a good game, because i feel like MBA thinks that the third spot is basically just going to be given to them, but BA still has a bitter taste in its mouth from that game. And as far as your question about weather or not the USN MBA game will be the best one, i think it will be. I think that the consolation game will be the best game in tournament. Here is why, the championship game will be a good game, but both teams by that point are already in the state tournament and coaches often times know that and the teams know that and sometimes these games are not played up to there potential. The consolation game is a live or die game. USN and BA both still feel like they have something to prove and they want it bad, they are both the underdog a role that USN played beautifully last year. BA on the other hand has not played to the potential that they are capable of yet this year and they are ready to show the world what they can do. MBA beat BA 3-0 and i think that if they are playing BA they may come into the game thinking it is going to be a walk in the park and BA will slip right in and do what USN did to them last year. These are my thoughts and i look forward to hearing what others have to say. Natural Spring Water, do u go to BA?

[gameball]

I could write a book on this subject of whom can beat whom in Div II and my original favorite really was Baylor, but they are now out and I see Catholic from the East with McCallie as my spoiler.... Father Ryan in the Middle with USN as my spoiler and CBHS in the West with MUS as my spoiler. By spoiler I mean the team capable of popping thru. I know most will not agree but I don't see Notre Dame as even in the championship. Oh they are plenty good enough and more than capable, but tourney time is a whole different animal and I see them if they get behind folding. Just my opinion though, BUT watch my favorites

[goo]

nickforte - great points.

 

"USN has not played nearly the schedule that BA has played, and BA has been playing teams very tough."

 

true and significant.

 

"Also BA played USN with fuchs in goal, he is now out, that i believe will play a huge part."

 

despite controlling the flow of the game for the first half, however, ba only forced fuchs to make 5 saves that entire game, so unless something changes that might not be a factor. usn actually ended up having twice as many shots on goal in that game despite being outplayed for much of it.

 

"Also BA finally has offense going, yesterday they got off 28 shots against webb. I know that it is Webb, but 28 shots is still quite a few, granted only 2 went in, but still i feel if the put pressure on the USN keeper they will win."

 

performance against webb (bellbuckle, right?) doesn't really count as an indication of...anything. to say the least, they have not made an impact in DII middle this year. besides, even if we were counting them, that game would not be a good indication of offensive production. 2 goals is the fewest scored on Webb by any team in DII with the exception of MTCS (MBA: 9, FRHS: 7) and USN scored five in the first half of that game before retiring most of their starters after the first half. the game ended 6-0.

 

"And as far as when BA played MBA, you say that they got anialted, which the score says (3-0). However if you recall or where there, that game was played on the first day of spring break, the mind of the team was nowhere near the field. Also, if you were there, you saw that the BA coach made a statement by pulling 8 of his starters 15 minutes into the game and not putting them back in until late in the second half, because he felt like they werent playing up to there ability. That game is hard to judge."

 

that information is new to me and definitely changes my assessment of BA's chance at USN or MBA. that means that USN's in-region advantage, which was based on their tie of mBA and BAs significant loss, diminishes. it also means that BA's chances at MBA are probably better than they are on paper.

 

"I say that the BA MBA game will be a good game, because i feel like MBA thinks that the third spot is basically just going to be given to them, but BA still has a bitter taste in its mouth from that game."

 

the perpetual plague of the big three schools of DII middle region.

 

"BA on the other hand has not played to the potential that they are capable of yet this year and they are ready to show the world what they can do."

 

no good team ever thinks that it has played as well as it can, and ba and usn have, with notable exceptions for each, both underachieved during this regular season. it will be fun to see which team comes out more prepared and determined.

 

thoughts on any of the above?

Edited May 4, 2005 by goo

[Hoya]

... my original favorite really was Baylor, but they are now out and I see Catholic from the East with McCallie as my spoiler....

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gameball, why count Baylor out? Baylor and Catholic played two most difficult schedules in DII and tied 0-0 in a very fine match. Why would you eliminate the Red Raiders?

[reaction]

gameball, why count Baylor out?  Baylor and Catholic played two most difficult schedules in DII and tied 0-0 in a very fine match.  Why would you eliminate the Red Raiders?

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hoya i think i finally found out who u r now if u only knew who i was u would laugh.

[gameball]

Baylor may not be at full strength come playoff time due to injuries, That is my only reason, that is what I was told , if'n I am wrong, so be it ......

[Hoya]

hoya i think i finally found out who u r now  if u only knew who i was u would laugh.

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What makes you think I don't know who you are? How many old-timer boyd players do you think I know? Good game in Chattanooga Monday night. ND v. Knox Catholic. Are you going?

[mtnman]

Baylor beat McCallie 4-0 (without Bach). Not sure how that factors into your statements. McCallie beat ND 2-0.

 

I don't think anyone has anything wrapped up in the east. It is going to a dog fight for those two spots in Memphis.

Edited May 4, 2005 by mtnman

[Hoya]

Baylor beat McCallie 4-0 (without Bach).  Not sure how that factors into your statements.  McCallie beat ND 2-0. 

 

I don't think anyone has anything wrapped up in the east.  It is going to a dog fight for those two spots in Memphis.

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Agreed.